976
FXZS60 NSTU 170127
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
227 PM SST Thu Oct 16 2025

.Short term...

Satellite imagery throughout the morning and early afternoon hours
continues to show a strengthening trough to the north and west of
American Samoa. This trough is projected to move over the islands
for Friday and remain through the weekend. However, the risk of
showers still increases to numerous showers for tonight through
early Friday morning. Cloudy skies and breezy easterly winds are
expected on Friday and Saturday with wind speeds lowering to
around 10 to 15 mph on Sunday. Widespread rainfall, which may be
continuous and heavy at times, is forecast from Friday through at
least Sunday morning. Thunderstorms are also possible. Gusty
winds may also accompany potentially heavy rainfall.

With these conditions from the strong trough moving into the
region, a Flood Watch is in effect through Sunday. There is high
confidence of rainfall being higher than average for Friday
through the weekend.

.Long term...

For next week, we are monitoring the position of the
aforementioned trough. The trough is expected to weaken compared
to the conditions in the short term forecast. If this trough moves
back over American Samoa, however, more flooding may occur
especially due to the projected saturated grounds from the
rainfall forecast in the short term. Otherwise, easterly winds are
projected to be around 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.Marine...

Data from the PacIOOS buoy located to the east of Aunu`u shows
seas beginning to ease throughout the morning hours. Conditions
are now below the Small Craft Advisory levels. However, easterly
winds are projected to increase to a moderate to fresh breeze by
Friday morning and to continue through Saturday evening. This will
cause seas to build back to Small Craft Advisory levels. A trough
is projected to move over the territorial waters on Friday through
the weekend. This may create strong wind gusts and thunderstorms
at times. Winds are projected to decrease on Sunday to a
east/northeasterly moderate breeze, but strong wind gusts near
heavy showers and thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

A Flood Watch is now in effect.

&&

$$

LaPlante