


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
976 FXZS60 NSTU 170127 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 227 PM SST Thu Oct 16 2025 .Short term... Satellite imagery throughout the morning and early afternoon hours continues to show a strengthening trough to the north and west of American Samoa. This trough is projected to move over the islands for Friday and remain through the weekend. However, the risk of showers still increases to numerous showers for tonight through early Friday morning. Cloudy skies and breezy easterly winds are expected on Friday and Saturday with wind speeds lowering to around 10 to 15 mph on Sunday. Widespread rainfall, which may be continuous and heavy at times, is forecast from Friday through at least Sunday morning. Thunderstorms are also possible. Gusty winds may also accompany potentially heavy rainfall. With these conditions from the strong trough moving into the region, a Flood Watch is in effect through Sunday. There is high confidence of rainfall being higher than average for Friday through the weekend. .Long term... For next week, we are monitoring the position of the aforementioned trough. The trough is expected to weaken compared to the conditions in the short term forecast. If this trough moves back over American Samoa, however, more flooding may occur especially due to the projected saturated grounds from the rainfall forecast in the short term. Otherwise, easterly winds are projected to be around 10 to 15 knots. && .Marine... Data from the PacIOOS buoy located to the east of Aunu`u shows seas beginning to ease throughout the morning hours. Conditions are now below the Small Craft Advisory levels. However, easterly winds are projected to increase to a moderate to fresh breeze by Friday morning and to continue through Saturday evening. This will cause seas to build back to Small Craft Advisory levels. A trough is projected to move over the territorial waters on Friday through the weekend. This may create strong wind gusts and thunderstorms at times. Winds are projected to decrease on Sunday to a east/northeasterly moderate breeze, but strong wind gusts near heavy showers and thunderstorms are possible. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... A Flood Watch is now in effect. && $$ LaPlante