499
FXZS60 NSTU 100100
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
200 PM SST Sun Nov 9 2025

.DISCUSSION...
The latest satellite imageries show a trough slowly moving across
the Samoa Islands as it continues to produce widespread showers,
heavy at times with embedded thunderstorms and gusty winds. The
upper air observataions (RAOB) from last night (10/12Z) and this
afternoon (11/00Z) shows an increasing trend of flash flooding
conditions-a very moist and unstable atmosphere with thunderstorm
signals. These conditions are expected to remain over the area
through at least Monday. More rain and possible thunderstorms will
continue for tonight through Monday morning. By late Monday,
models are showing a weak high pressure system to the southwest
migrating east as it tries to hold the trough north of the area.
However, models have the trough remaining over the area as it
weakens and intensifies from time to time throughout the week.
This will create passing showers and minor flooding at times for
this forecast period (7 days out). Light and variable winds are
expected throughout the week, but with thunderstorms in the area,
it is possible to have gusty winds over time. Uncertainties in
model data increases after 3 days and are expected to change
throughout the forecast period.

Therefore, expect numerous to widespread showers, heavy at times
with thunderstorms, and moderate to fresh south winds for tonight
through Monday. Showers will ease at scattered to numerous with
light and variable winds for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.Marine...
Data from the PacIOOS buoy near Aunu`u (east of Tutuila) and
King-Poloa (west of Tutuila) are not reflected on model data.
Model data has been down playing sea heights to 5 to 7 feet,
whereas, buoy data show heights building to 7 to 9 feet with peak
periods around 11 to 12 seconds. These values prompted the issuance
of a high surf and small craft advisory. Thus, both advisories are
in effect. This may likely be the effect of thunderstorms elevating
seas and winds in the area as the aforementioned trough lingers.
Additionally, moderate to fresh breeze with higher gusts has been
observed in the last 8 to 10 hours with winds turning from
southeast to south to southwest throughout the day. Although model
data is struggling to pick up the building seas and winds, the
most significant swell models are projecting for this forecast
period, is expected to reach American Samoa shorelines on
Thursday, from the northwest. In the meantime, will continue to
monitor as more data becomes available.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory
Flood Watch

&&

$$

JTAllen