816
FXZS60 NSTU 240121
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
221 PM SST Sun Nov 23 2025

.DISCUSSION...
Remnants of a trough still remains over the area as shown on the
latest satellite imageries and hourly observations throughout the
day. On precipitable water (PWAT) model data, moisture is shown
lingering in the area. However, improved conditions shows on the
upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (24/00Z) with
less moisture and potential convections compared to the last RAOB
from 12 hours ago. These conditions are also supported by the
latest model solutions. Model data shows a surface trough oriented
northwest to southeast, attached to a low pressure system to the
south of the Fiji Islands. Model has the low pressure system
pulling the trough further south as it migrates southeast, and as
the equatorial ridge builds as it holds the trough south of the
area. The trough is expected to migrate further away from the
area by tonight. This will bring more fair-weather patterns
through at least Wednesday. Also shown on the model data is a mid-
level high pressure system anchoring over the area through
midweek, aiding in holding the trough south of the area. Thus,
expect isolated to scattered showers with light winds tonight,
slightly increasing to a gentle to moderate east flow on Monday
and Monday night, decreasing to a light flow on Tuesday.

By Wednesday night, model data shows an increase potential for
showers through the end of the week. As the aforementioned low
pressure system continue to migrate east, the west portion of the
trough will move back over the islands by this time frame. Another
high pressure system from the southwest will migrate east as it
pushes the latter portion of the aforementioned trough eastward,
decreases the potential for showers by the end of the forecast
period. Expect scattered to numerous showers for midweek through
the end of the week, peaking Friday through early Saturday
morning. Winds will change from light and variable to a moderate
northwest breeze on Friday through Saturday night. These northwest
winds will likely impact the harbor area as winds become gustier
as it funnels down the mountains. Will continue to monitor
conditions as more data becomes available.

There is a low to no chance of any tropical system to develop
within the area of responsibility for the next 7 days.

&&

.Marine...
There is no significant swell expected for this forecast period.
Observations reported from the PacIOOS buoy near Aunu`u show seas
remaining below advisory thresholds with periods around 9 to 12
seconds short. At the King-Poloa buoy to the west of Tutuila, seas
are lower with periods around 12 to 14 seconds long. As a rule of
thumb, longer periods will likely generate strong currents and
enhance surfs. In this case, since seas are around 4 to 6 feet,
the surfs will remain below the advisory thresholds, and the risk
of rip currents is likely low. The light and variable winds
currently over the area will slightly increase to a more gentle to
moderate easterly breeze on Monday and Monday night before
decreasing to a light winds on Tuesday through at least Thursday
night. By Friday, winds will turn northwest as it once again
increases to a gentle to moderate flow. Overall, seas and winds will
remain favorable for this forecast period.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

JTAllen