373
FXZS60 NSTU 180137
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
237 PM SST Mon Nov 17 2025

.Discussion...
A surface trough the brought heavy rain and thunderstorms over
the weekend continues to hold these conditions today. However,
current satellite trends show the trough migrating southward.
Expect showers and thunderstorms to diminish throughout the day
as well as the risk for flash flooding. Hence, the Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect until 6 PM.

The aforementioned trough will linger near the Samoa Island chain
through midweek. Expect periods of heavy rainfall with breaks in
between as moisture could extend from the trough to the territory.
Additionally, this pattern will hold a gentle breeze through the
weekend. However, instability is expected to increase Thursday
when the trough shifts back over the Islands. A flash flood watch
may warrant again for this time until the weekend, but our
confidence is low at this time.

Furthermore, the GFS model tries to develop a weak low pressure
system that remains anchored near Savai`i Thursday to Saturday.
However, guidance from other models have not picked up its signal,
resulting in limited forecast confidence. All in all, it looks
like a pretty wet week for the Islands.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Latest wave heights observed at the Aunu`u PacIOOS buoy is around
8 feet. Winds have diminished to a gentle breeze and will continue
through Friday. Although winds are ideal for calm ocean conditions,
a high pressure system to the south may slightly elevate seas
through Friday. However, winds increasing near 20 knots Friday
could extend elevated seas through Sunday.

&&

$$

TM