471
FXZS60 NSTU 160045
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
145 PM SST Mon Dec 15 2025

.Discussion...
Despite stable conditions observed in the early morning hours,
convection would begin developing near the territory around 9 AM
this morning. This convection moved over the Manu`a Islands this
afternoon. This afternoon`s RAOB upper-air sounding depicts an
unstable and very moist atmospheric profile which will continue to
favor convective activity and possible flash flooding. Given the
favorable environment and increased lift from the trough,
widespread showers, heavy at times, and possible thunderstorms are
anticipated through at least midweek as the trough lingers over
the area. An elongated area of lower pressure to the south of the
territory has turned winds out of the west, bringing breezy
conditions to the territory that should last through Wednesday
night.

Tropical Depression 03F is currently positioned approximately 380
miles northwest of Nadi, Fiji. Previously, data indicated
potential for this system to come within 300 nm of American Samoa
and bring northwesterly winds nearing the Wind Advisory
threshold. However, as new data has come available, there is now
high confidence that TD 03F will fully dissipate much earlier and
further west, and therefore, will not come close enough to
American Samoa to produce any impacts. However, remants of the
trough may linger in the area, continuing the potential for
numerous to widespread showers as winds weaken and turn out of
the northwest Thursday into Friday.

&&

.Marine...
Seas of 4 to 6 feet are currently observed at Aunu`u and Poloa
buoys, but should begin increasing as a moderate to fresh breeze
is developing across the region. This breeze may briefly elevate
seas 6 to 8 feet by midweek, before seas subside back below
advisory levels late week.

Previous forecasts projected dangerous marine conditions by
midweek. However significant changes have been made in the latest
Coastal Waters Forecast due to the change in the projection of TD
03F.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch

&&

$$

Barton