183
FXZS60 NSTU 030041
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
141 PM SST Sun Nov 2 2025

.DISCUSSION...
Much of the moisture associated with the trough which produced
flash flooding conditions earlier has slowly migrated south of the
islands with some remnants nearby. This has given way for some
sunshine to warm up the rest of the day. On satellite imageries,
thunderstorms and deeper convections to the east of Rose Atoll,
which are associated with a surface to mid-level low pressure
system is also expected to continue to migrate south of the
territory. This scenario is shown on the latest model data, with
the trough continuing on its southward path as gentle to moderate
northeast winds help push and hold the trough to the south of the
islands through midweek. Upper air observations (RAOB) from this
afternoon (03/00Z) continue to show a moist atmosphere with dry
pockets at certain levels. Thus, the flood watch is cancelled.
Expect scattered to numerous showers with northeasterlies to
remain across the territory for this time frame.

By Thursday, winds will turn east as embedded showers in the wind
flow moves across the territory. Expect scattered showers with
gentle to moderate east winds for Thursday through at least
Saturday night. By Sunday, models are showing a trough from the
west-northwest moving into the area, likely producing flash
flooding conditions. However, will continue to monitor conditions
as more data becomes available and as the week progresses.

&&

.Marine...
Favorable ocean conditions have been observed for the last 12 to
16 hours as seas remain at 5 to 7 feet with peak periods less than
10 seconds. Observations from the buoys continue to support these
conditions for the remainder of the forecast period. Model data
is consistent in keeping seas at these levels. However, a south
swell with peak periods around 12 seconds and more is expected to
reach shores by Monday afternoon and remain for the rest of the
week. These long periods are likely to enhance strong rip currents
even though seas are in favorable conditions. Winds are also
expected to remain at a gentle to moderate northeast flow for
tonight through midweek before turning east. Therefore, expect a
moderate risk of strong rip currents for this time frame.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Watch is cancelled

&&

$$

JTAllen