835
FXZS60 NSTU 040817
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
917 PM SST Mon Nov 3 2025

.Update...
Large low-level towering cumulus clouds have been observed
building nearby in the most recent surface observation,
indicating nearby showers. Satellite imagery supports this
observation, with convection associated with the trough to the
south building closer to the territory. For this reason, the
chance for rainfall will be upgraded from scattered to numerous
showers for the remainder of tonight. The heaviest rainfall
activity is still expected to remain south keeping the threat for
widespread flash flooding low. However, localized heavy rainfall
and minor flooding is possible. Otherwise, the rest of the
forecast remains on track.

&&

.Previous discussion... /issued 256 PM SST Mon Nov 3 2025/

Short term...

Satellite imagery throughout the morning and early afternoon hours
shows a trough, that was over American Samoa this weekend, has
finally moved south of the region. East/northeasterly flow is
forecast to continue throughout the day today and tomorrow. If
showers occur, it would be in the passing form and no severe
weather is expected. East/northeasterly winds may reach up to 20
mph late this afternoon through early Tuesday, but is to decrease
to around 10 to 15 mph through Tuesday night.

A low pressure system is anticipated to develop near the Fiji
region during the next 24 hours. As this southeastward, a trough
from the low is forecast to move over American Samoa on Wednesday.
Cloudy skies and rainfall is anticipated, but the trough is to
move away from the area by the end of the day. Flash flooding is
not likely. Otherwise, temperatures are to be below normal with
northeasterly winds around 10 mph.

Long term...

After the aforementioned trough moves away from the region on
Wednesday night, a weak high is to develop near American Samoa.
This will return easterly flow over the region. The risk of showers
decreases back to scattered showers (around 40% chance) and would
be in the passing form throughout the rest of the week with
rainfall at or below average.

We are now in the first full week of hurricane season. There are
no tropical systems that are expected to develop near our region
this week.

Marine...

The latest data to the east of Aunu`u as of early this afternoon
shows seas around 6 feet while the buoy to the west of Tutuila
shows seas at 4 feet. Seas are to build slightly during the
overnight hours and Tuesday to near 7 feet and 5 feet as the
east/northeasterly winds reach up to around 15 knots. However,
winds decrease for the rest of the week. Overall, conditions will
be near the Small Craft Advisory criteria overnight tonight and
tomorrow as wave may reach up to 8 feet, but sea levels decrease
throughout the next 5 days.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$