Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
316 FXZS60 NSTU 090042 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 142 PM SST Sat Nov 8 2025 .Short term [tonight through Monday night]... A trough with embedded heavy rainfall and thunderstorms is observed on satellite to the west of the territory, with partly cloudy skies and brief passing showers observed over the territory throughout the day. The moist and unstable atmospheric profile observed in this afternoon`s RAOB upper-air sounding is indicative of the trough slowly approaching the area. An increase in showers could occur after midnight as the trough moves closer to the territory, but flash flooding is not expected. The flash flooding threat could increase during the Sunday through Monday time frame as the trough moves over the territory. However, there is still significant model uncertainty regarding the intensity of the trough at this time, leading to low confidence in flash flooding potential. .Long term [Tuesday through Saturday]... There will be no major low or high pressure systems nearby throughout the long term forecast period to act as a steering force for the winds. Therefore, winds will tend to be light and variable for this time frame. Passing showers may occur, but no troughs or severe weather are expected. && .Marine... Seas will be in a general subsiding trend throughout the forecast period as winds become light and variable into the new week. If heavy showers and / or thunderstorms occur associated with the incoming trough, gusts near this activity may briefly enhance seas at times through Monday. Otherwise, conditions will be ideal for mariners throughout the forecast period. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ Barton / Meredith