Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
956 FXZS60 NSTU 120106 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 206 PM SST Tue Nov 11 2025 .DISCUSSION... The latest satellite imageries show the trough lingering in between an equatorial ridge of high pressure and another ridge to the west-southwest. This same trough will dominate local weather patterns, with developing showers and wind gusts in the afternoon. As the trough remains over the area for the remainder of the week, the atmosphere is likely to develop thunderstorms from single cell convections as instability remains. This is further shown on the upper air data (RAOB) from this afternoon (12/00Z). Expect scattered to numerous showers with a light to gentle breeze to prevail for tonight through the end of the week. By Saturday, a high pressure system to the south will strengthen as it continues to hold the trough over the area for the long term forecast period. Expect winds to slightly increase to a moderate east flow with embedded showers for the remainder of the period. && .Marine... Combined seas and light to gentle winds continue to remain at favorable levels. These conditions will likely remain through at least the end of the week. Also, thunderstorms embedded within the trough can elevate seas and surfs nearby. However, model data shows a long period northwest swell reaching American Samoa coastal waters by late Wednesday, peaking on Thursday night into Friday. This phenomenon will likely impact west to northwest to north facing shores of all islands for this time frame. Expect enhancing surfs and strong rip currents during this period. Additionally, model data is showing an east-southest swell moving into the area by the end of the forecast period. Seas will build to advisory thresholds and winds will increase to a moderate east- southeast flow by the new week. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ JTAllen