Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 212106 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
645 AM ChST Tue Aug 22 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
A cloudy sky and isolated showers were around the Marianas early
this morning. Seas were around 2 feet at the buoys.


An upper level low and trough and surface trough were located just
to the west of the Marianas. These features are supposed to move
away from the area today. As a result, a drier pattern should
establish itself over the next few days as surface ridging moves
in. Will keep the mention of thunder during the day today, then
just isolated showers for the balance of the week.

One potential caveat, some guidance is suggesting another round of
thunder tonight into Wednesday morning. However, with a ridge
building in and drier air, my confidence in this occurring is not
high, if the remainder of the guidance is correct. So, for now,
will not include and will evaluate later guidance. Marine
conditions still look fairly tranquil this week.


Corrected Section Titles for Micronesia Discussions

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
A modest near-equatorial trough persists across the region from
Chuuk eastward across Pohnpei then thru two circulations, one just
north of Kosrae and another one just east of Majuro to beyond the
Date Line. The first circulation is going to gradually shift
westward over the next few days. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough
extending southward from a low north of Pohnpei will also slowly
move westward from Pohnpei to Chuuk over the couple of days. The
combination of these two features will maintain periodic convection
near Kosrae thru Wednesday evening, Pohnpei and Chuuk thru Thursday.
Farther east, the second circulation will also bring back showery
conditions to Majuro by later this afternoon. Toward the weekend,
light trades along with drier air at mid levels should provide a day
or two of fair weather across the entire region. For the weekend and
early next week, increasing trade convergence and moisture aloft
will bring back unstable conditions.


.Western Micronesia for Yap and Koror...
Monsoonal south winds have retreated west of Palau this morning.
However, modest converging surface winds near a ridge and a weak
circulation should prolong showers near both Koror and Yap thru
tonight. Then a neutral area will introduce a day of partly cloudy
skies on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Toward the weekend, the
remnants of a near-equatorial trough from the east might impact the
area with more wetness.


Marianas Waters...None.


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