153
AXPQ20 PGUM 180111
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1111 AM ChST Tue Jun 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
A tropical disturbance, JTWC Invest 96W, is centered near 7N138E. 96W
is currently rated sub-low. 96W is very loosely organized with only
spotty showers and minimal cloud cover. 96W is expected to drift
west-northwest over the next few days with little development
through the end of the week.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

SURFACE TROUGH...
A surface trough extends westward from the Philippines across 130E
near 6N to Invest 96W, discussed above. The trough then continues
northwest from 96W to end south of Guam near 11N145E. This trough
looks to be a monsoon trough west of the Philippines, but loses the
westerly winds near Mindanao into Palau. Scattered to numerous deep
convection is seen with the trough to the south and west of Palau and
with the northeastern extent of the trough over eastern Yap and
western Chuuk States. Another area of deep convection is seen north
of Yap Proper within a band of convergence associated with the
trough. The trough is expected to meander around far western
Micronesia over the next few days, with moderate to deep convection
continuing along and north of the trough.

TUTT...
The TUTT lows remain across the region. The first is centered near
24N136E, with the trough extending south to end north of Yap Proper.
Moderate convection is seen near the low center, with moderate to
deep convection seen farther south of the low with the trough. Latest
guidance shows this low remaining quasi-stationary and weakening,
with the low no longer discernible Wednesday night or Thursday.

A second TUTT low is seen near 22N179E, with the trough extending
southwestward to end southeast of Guam near 10N150E. Only light to
moderate convection is associated with the low and trough. Latest
guidance shows this low moving southwest over the next couple of
days, then moving over Wake Island by the end of the week. Convection
looks to increase with the low and trough as the associated
divergence moves into a more favorable area of moisture. The southern
end of the trough will also interact with the western end of the
ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
The ITCZ is apparent from west of Chuuk across Pohnpei to just north
of Kosrae. It then becomes more diffuse from north of Kosrae to near
Majuro and across the Date Line. Moderate to deep convection is seen
from just west of Weno, Chuuk to north of Kosrae, with spotty showers
seen from north of Kosrae across the Marshall Islands. Model
guidance suggests the ITCZ will continue to weaken and fragment into
a series of trade-wind troughs for the next couple of days as the
ITCZ loses its southeast winds and the northeast trade winds become
the primary winds north of the Equator. The troughs will continue to
produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
region, but showers will be more concentrated near the troughs and
weak trade-wind convergence that usually develops near troughs.

$$

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