264
FXUS66 KPQR 011302
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
602 AM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front moving through the are will continue to
bring rain to the region with a transition to showers behind the
front this afternoon. Southwest winds will increase with gusts
20-30 mph inland and 30-40 mph along the coast. Conditions trend
drier into Sunday as transient ridging moves over the region.
Active weather looks to return by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Now through Saturday Night...Rain continues to
stream in along southwesterly flow, slowly drifting southeast
into the central and southern Willamette Valley. The cold front
bring the rain has stalled as a secondary surface low, supported
by a shortwave trough, develops offshore. The cold front will
accelerate as the surface low tracks northeast towards
Vancouver Island through the day. Light to moderate rain will
continue drifting southeast with a better push expected between
8 AM and noon. The back edge of the cold front is expected to
reach the northwest OR and southwest WA coasts early this
afternoon. From there, rain will transition to showers across
the area, lingering through Saturday night.

The bulk of the precipitation has fallen north of a line from
Florence to Albany to Mount Hood. The highest totals, as
expected, are along the Coast and Coast where several reports of
1-2 inches have already fallen. Many inland locations are
reporting 0.25-0.75 inches so far. Additional rainfall totals
through early Sunday morning are expected to be 0.75-1.5 inches
along the Coast and Coast Range, 0.25-0.5 inches through the
Willamette Valley and I-5 corridor, and 1.0-2.0 inches in the
Cascades and Cascade Foothills.

Expecting gusty southerly winds as the cold front moves through
the region. Inland gusts around 20 to 30 mph and up to 35 to 45
mph for the coast, Coast Range, Columbia River gorge, and
Cascades. /19

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...The pattern trends dryer
on Sunday as heights aloft rebound and weak ridging move into
the region. However, this reprieve will be short lived as models
show an active pattern returning as early as late Monday.

Model ensemble guidance shows good agreement through midweek,
indicating a broad trough settling over the Pacific Northwest by
Wednesday. This trough will be associated with an atmospheric river,
expected to persist around 4860 hours in duration. A pair of
strong upper level disturbances are expected to interact and
send waves of moisture into the PacNW from Tuesday night through
Friday morning. During this time frame, there are two distinct
peaks in integrated vapor transport, one on Wednesday the 5th
and another on Thursday the 6th, both peaking between 500-750
kg/ms for less than 24 hours. There is a 12-18 hour lull between
these two stronger systems so not expecting any hydro issues.
However, major chances in the timing or strength of the ARs may
warrant adjustments.

With prevailing southwesterly flow expected
with this atmospheric river, orographic enhancement is expected
to be modest, limiting heavy rain potential. While this system
bears watching, current model guidance does not suggest rainfall
rates high enough to raise flooding concerns for rivers or
urban areas.

Winds may increase again Wednesday and Thursday, with a 1020%
chance of gusts exceeding 45 mph, though probabilities can
change as ensembles come into closer agreement on the eventual
track and depth of the offshore low. Thursday and onward,
ensemble spread increases notably, suggesting growing
uncertainty in timing and strength of any subsequent systems.
-19/12

&&

.AVIATION...A stalled cold front continues to bring rain to
portions of northwest OR and much of southwest WA. Conditions
north of SLE are generally sub-VFR around the metro and IFR
along the coast. Rain is expected to push southeast as the cold
front accelerates later this morning into the afternoon. Winds
will gradually get breezier and turn more southerly, with gusts
up to 30-35 kt along the coast and 20-25 kt across the Valley.
There is also potential for low level wind shear at 2000 ft as
southwesterly winds increase aloft and winds at the surface
remain southeasterly as the cold front passes.

After 18-21z Sat, the front exits the region and rain transitions
into post-frontal showers. Shower activity will gradually decrease
throughout the afternoon, with CIGs and VIS trending back toward
predominately VFR. Winds this afternoon will also weaken and
turn more westerly behind the front.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Rain with a mix of MVFR and some IFR or
lower CIGs through the morning as the front pushes through. Low
level wind shear possible through early afternoon as
southwesterly winds aloft increase and winds at the surface
remains southeasterly. Southwesterly winds around 10-15 kt with
gusts up to 25 kt. Conditions trend more VFR with decreasing
showers in the afternoon. -19/10

&&

.MARINE...A cold front continues to move through the waters,
supporting active countdowns. Gales are expected across the
inner waters and the Columbia River Gorge through early
afternoon as a coastal jet supports frequent gusts to 35-40 kt.
Elsewhere, Hazardous Seas Warnings will be in effect for steep
seas and wind gusts to around 30 kt. As these systems pass over
the waters, a long period westerly swell 17-19 feet at 15-17
seconds will move into the waters through the day before
dropping back into the mid to low teens this evening. While
gales ease this afternoon, seas remain steep, supporting
Hazardous Seas Warnings remaining in effect through 8 PM PDT
Saturday evening across all coastal waters.

While brief high pressure passes overhead, winds will ease
Sunday and into early next week, however seas may remain at or
above 8-10 ft through much of the period.

The middle of next week should see the return of an active
pattern with possible strong Gales or even Storm force winds.
Currently, 3 hr probabilities for Gales Tuesday into Wednesday
is 30-50% and Wednesday into Thursday 30-60% while the
probability for Storm force is around 10%. Looking at 24 hour
wind gusts probabilities pushes the chance for Gales to greater
than 80% and Storms to 20-50%. Seas are also expected to
increase, with mainly wind driven seas pushing into the mid to
upper teens by Wednesday. There is still plenty of uncertainty
in exact details but the active pattern is expected to persist.
-19/36

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...An increasing westerly swell of 16-20 ft at
16-17 seconds will bring a high threat of sneaker waves this
weekend. Caution should be used when in or near the water.
Always keep an eye on the waves, and be especially watchful of
children and pets.

Elevated swell heights may also bring a marginal high surf threat
from 5 AM to 5 PM Saturday. Destructive waves may wash over beaches,
jetties, and other structures unexpectedly. People can be swept off
rocks and jetties and drown while observing high surf. Higher
than normal water run-up is expected on beaches and low-lying
shoreline. Stay well back from the water`s edge during this
time, and be alert for exceptionally high waves. -10

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...High Surf Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for ORZ101>103.

WA...High Surf Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for WAZ201.

PZ...Gale Warning until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ210-251>253.

     Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for PZZ210-251>253.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for
     PZZ271>273.
&&


$$

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