377
FXUS65 KPSR 301705
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1005 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weather system will pass to the north tonight into Monday
  dropping temperatures into the normal range, but dry conditions
  and mostly clear skies will continue to prevail.

- A second weather system is expected during the latter half of
  the week providing at least precipitation chances across the
  Arizona high terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The weather pattern is becoming more active across the Western
U.S., but for the Desert Southwest little will change over the
next few days. Large scale broad troughing has now settled in
across the region with a shortwave trough well to the north across
the Pacific Northwest and Idaho. Heights aloft are very slowly
dropping, but it will have little effect on temperatures today as
highs should be nearly identical to Saturday. The disturbance to
our north will continue to track south southeastward into
tonight, eventually passing across the Four Corners area Monday
morning. Any precipitation chances with the system will stay well
to our north, but we will see some passing higher level clouds
tonight and some breezy northerly winds across the Lower CO River
Valley on Monday. Temperatures will also drop a few more degrees
on Monday with lower desert highs ranging between 68-72 degrees.
Tuesday looks to be another transition day with the first system
exiting to the east and another one quickly diving southward
through the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. Weather
conditions Tuesday will be again quite nice with sunny skies and
highs mostly in the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models are beginning to come to a better consensus for the
expected weather system later this week, but there is still enough
spread to keep a good amount of doubt in our precipitation
chances. The system will again take an overland trajectory,
keeping moisture levels on the lower side, but it will at least be
a good deal farther west than the one for tonight/Monday. The main
shortwave is expected to pass across Nevada into eastern
California Tuesday night/Wednesday morning before likely tracking
right through our region Wednesday afternoon through the daytime
hours Thursday.

Ensembles are now heavily favoring a fairly progressive trough
with little chance of becoming cut off and retrograding to the
west. This should result in at least some precipitation chances
for northern and eastern Arizona from later on Wednesday through
much of Thursday, but moisture will be a bit limited and the
energy from the trough may be somewhat lacking. NBM PoPs have
increased slightly from yesterday, but remain mostly between
15-30%. If the track holds true, it`s likely these PoPs will
improve over the next couple of days. The latest QPF amounts are
still quite limited at basically nothing for southeast California
and southwest Arizona to upwards of 0.1-0.25" over the higher
terrain north and east of Phoenix. The system should not be all
that cold, so snow levels will remain quite high limiting any
potential snow to the highest peaks. Temperatures should however
lower a bit more with highs falling more into the mid 60s across
the lower deserts by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1705Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Little to no aviation weather concerns are expected through the
TAF period. Winds today will remain light at or below 7 kts at
all terminals and directions will follow typical diurnal
tendencies. Toward the end of the TAF period, expecting some
increasing northerly winds across the Lower CO River Valley by
late Monday morning, Have introduced gusty winds at 16z Monday
for KBLH. Clear to mostly clear skies will also prevail through
the period with SCT high cirrus.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will continue to prevail early this week as a weak
disturbance passes by to the north of the area. Temperatures will
cool into the normal range starting Monday, while daily MinRHs
continue to range between 25-35% with good to very good overnight
recoveries of 60-80%. Winds will overall remain light through the
period except for a period of northerly breezy conditions across
the Lower CO River Valley on Monday. By Wednesday into Thursday,
another weather system may bring precipitation chances to portions
of the area with humidities increasing further.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Frieders
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman