817
FXUS65 KPSR 270541
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1040 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and tranquil weather conditions are expected through the
remainder of the week with slightly above normal temperatures.

- A weather system arriving late Sunday and Monday will yield cooler
temperatures and chances for precipitation focused more over the
Arizona high terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level ridging will be dominating the area through Thanksgiving
day. The ridge weakens by Friday with some weak troughing and
northwest flow developing on Friday. Meanwhile, a weakening upper
low caught under the ridge as visible well off the southwest coast
will move inland on Thursday bringing a period of higher clouds by
mid/late day Thursday. Otherwise, the pattern keeps dry conditions
and slightly above normal temperatures to the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The first part of this weekend will stay quiet across the region,
but we will continue to transition into a broad troughing pattern
with a fast moving disturbance first passing across northern Utah
into Colorado. The lowering heights will help to bring temperatures
down to fairly close to normal readings on Saturday, but conditions
will stay dry and skies will remain mostly clear. As we enter a more
active weather pattern once again, guidance has been trying to bring
a disturbance through our region at some point Sunday into early
next week.

Ensembles had initially been quite favorable for a slower and  more
impactful weather system, but over the past couple of days have
gradually shifted toward a progressive system with a more northerly
track. There are still some ensemble members (maybe 15%) calling for
a slower system with more precipitation, but if the trends continue
it probably will not amount to much precipitation. The latest NBM
only gives 10-15% PoPs for the deserts and 20-30% for the Arizona
higher terrain. The current timing as of now brings the system
through here late Sunday and early Monday with highs dropping from
around normal on Sunday to a few degrees below normal for next
Monday- Wednesday.

The active weather pattern should continue into the latter half of
next week with guidance currently indicating a larger Pacific
weather system dropping southward along the West Coast, potentially
stalling out briefly to our west around next Wednesday and Thursday.
If this occurs, it could result in a decent precipitation event at
some point late next week for the Desert Southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0540Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No weather issues will exist through Thursday night under thickening
high cirrus decks. E/NE winds will be largely predominant around
Phoenix, however some variability or a light W/NW component should
develop around sunset. At the SE California terminals, a light N/NW
wind will continue to be preferred.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and tranquil weather conditions will continue into the weekend
with temperatures rising to around 3 to 6 degrees above average
lasting through Friday. Expect MinRHs between 25-35% through Friday
and 35-45% over the weekend with overnight recoveries remaining
good. Winds will be less than 10 mph and follow their normal diurnal
tendencies with only marginal upslope gusts into the upper teens to
low 20s. A fast moving weather system should then move through the
region late Sunday and Monday providing mostly high terrain
precipitation chances with any accumulations being light.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulhman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman