273
FXUS65 KPSR 071131
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
431 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

.UPDATE...12Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm conditions are anticipated through this
  weekend as a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the
  forecast area.

- High temperatures across the lower deserts will peak in the
  upper 80s to around 90 degrees Sunday and Monday which is
  around 8-10 degrees above normal.

- Above normal temperatures with dry conditions will prevail
  through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
An overall dry and benign weather pattern with unseasonably warm
temperatures will continue through this weekend. Latest mid-lvl wv
imagery and 500 mb streamline analysis reveals a quasi-zonal
pattern over the Desert Southwest with northern stream jet energy
well removed from the forecast area over the Great Basin/central
Rockies. H5 hghts will remain around 582-585 dam today which is
near the 90th percentile of climatology for this time of year.
These positive hght anomalies will result in another day of warm
temperatures across our region with highs hovering 3-6 degrees
above the daily normals.

Heading into this weekend, the upper-lvl pattern will become more
amplified across the CONUS as a deep trough develops across the
Upper Midwest while a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the
Desert Southwest. In response, H5 hghts will rise to around 588-590
dam which is near the climatological maximum for early November.
Therefore, temperatures across the lower deserts will climb from the
low to mid 80s on Saturday to upper 80s to 90 degrees on Sunday.
Phoenix could easily tie or break the record high on Sunday which is
88 degrees. Latest NBM prob of exceeding 88 degrees is 70% for
Phoenix Sky Harbor. These warm afternoons will continue to result
in a Minor HeatRisk for those that are not conditioned to the heat.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/...
The aforementioned high amplitude ridge will gradually weaken
through the first half of next week as a trough of low pressure
sets up well west of the California coast. As this occurs, hghts
aloft will decrease slightly over the Desert Southwest which will
result in a lower desert highs falling from the upper 80s on
Monday into the mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. The only sensible
change to the weather through mid-week will be increasing high
clouds starting on Tuesday.

Eventually by late next week, the trough over the eastern Pacific
will begin to deepen and bring a plume of Pacific moisture onto
the West Coast resulting in better chances for widespread
measurable precipitation across California. Latest global models
and ensemble members project the trough will eventually move
onshore sometime next weekend in which our region will also see a
slight increase in rain chances, however the timing and magnitude
of this system is still very uncertain and thus forecast
confidence is still quite low at this time. This uncertainty is
also reflected in the NBM interquartile temperature spread next
weekend which is around 15 degrees for both highs and lows.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1130Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns under clear skies can be expected
throughout the TAF period. At the Phoenix Metro terminals, winds
will remain aob 8 kts and follow typical diurnal patterns with
extended periods of calm and variable conditions. Across the SE
California terminals, winds will favor a light west to north
component with extended periods of variable and calm conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry conditions with above normal temperatures will prevail
through this weekend and into much of next week. Afternoon minimum
humidity will bottom out between 15-20% over the several days
with overnight recoveries up to 40-60%. Winds will remain light,
generally 15 mph or less with occasional afternoon gusts and will
tend to follow a typical diurnal upslope/nocturnal drainage pattern.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Salerno
LONG TERM...Salerno
AVIATION...Lojero/Salerno
FIRE WEATHER...Salerno