079
FXUS65 KPSR 072030
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
130 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and quiescent weather conditions will continue through at
  least the next 7 days.

- Temperatures will steadily climb through the upcoming workweek,
  with highs likely reaching 8 to 12 degrees above daily normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The overall upper-lvl pattern is not expected to change much
over the next 24 hours as dry and benign weather conditions
persist across the forecast area. An unseasonably strong ridge of
high pressure will remain centered over the E Pacific a few
hundred miles off the coast of CA. This pattern will induce dry NW
flow aloft over the Desert Southwest and keep temperatures
slightly above normal with highs in the mid 70s across the lower
deserts today and tomorrow. Model consensus does show a weak
shortwave trough diving SE through the Great Basin region and into
southcentral AZ on Monday afternoon. This will result in an
increasing 700-500 mb hght gradient and drag a weak sfc front
through the region. The main noticeable change in weather
conditions from this shortwave will be increased breeziness across
the Lower Colorado River Valley Monday afternoon and the higher
terrain of southcentral AZ on Monday evening into Monday night
where gusts could reach up to 20-25 mph at times.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND/...
Deterministic models and ensemble members continue to be in
excellent agreement that the ridge will remain stalled off the
west coast of California through the middle of this coming week,
keeping much of western CONUS under the influence of the eastern
flank of the ridge. Multiple shortwaves will be moving from the
Pacific NW/southern British Columbia down into the Plains that
will temporally dampen the ridge, but, it will quickly rebound.
If any of these shortwaves are able to slide into the Desert
Southwest, we could see additional breeziness across SE California
and the AZ high terrain. Nevertheless, regional temperatures will
gradually warm to around 8-10 degrees above normal by the middle
of next week. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to reach
the mid to upper 70s and near 80F in some places across the lower
deserts, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the higher
terrain.

By the end of the week and heading into next weekend, the ridge will
finally push onshore with the center of the ridge eventually moving
over the Desert Southwest during the weekend. The ridge will be
weakening as it moves onshore, however, with it moving directly
overhead temperatures will continue to gradually warm. H5 heights
will rise into the 583-586 dm range by the end of next week and
heading into next weekend. This will result in afternoon high
temperatures 10-12 degrees above normal and morning low temperatures
6-8 degrees above normal. For the end of next week, afternoon high
temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees
across the lower deserts and in the low to mid 70s across the higher
terrain. Morning lows are forecast to be in the 50s across the lower
deserts and in the 40s across the higher terrain. Additionally with
the ridge continuing to dominate the region, dry and tranquil
conditions will continue through at least next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1725Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation concerns are expected through Monday morning. Light
winds, generally aob 7 kts will be common with extended periods
of VRB to calm conditions. Besides a FEW passing high clouds to
the north of the terminals, skies will be mostly clear.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry weather will prevail across the region through this
coming week. Temperatures will be above normal and gradually warm
to 8-12 degrees above normal by the end of the week. A brief bout
of gusty winds can be expected across the Lower Colorado River
Valley and AZ high terrain on Monday afternoon and evening,
otherwise winds will generally remain light and follow diurnal
tendencies. Humidities over the next week will stay elevated with
afternoon MinRHs mostly ranging between 20-30%, followed by good
to excellent overnight recoveries.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Salerno
LONG TERM...Berislavich
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Salerno