332
FXUS65 KPSR 012145
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
245 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mostly tranquil conditions will exist through the next
  few days with some occasional breeziness for the Lower Colorado
  River Valley this afternoon.

- Weak low pressure will dive across the Great Basin during the
  middle portion of the week potentially sparking some isolated
  shower activity over higher terrain areas of central and eastern
  Arizona.

- Temperatures through the week will cool slightly, but will be
  generally steady, hovering around normal levels for this time of
  year.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The Desert Southwest currently finds itself caught between a
positivley-tilted trough moving over the Southern Plains and a high
amplitude ridge over the eastern Pacific. Even though heights
aloft will be on the rise as the influence of the upper-level high
pressure reaches out towards the Great Basin, cool, and dry
northerly flow will keep temperatures generally in the upper 60s
to lower 70s for lower desert areas. The somewhat enhanced
pressure and thermal gradients will result in some occasional
breeziness, with gusts around 25 mph being most common for
portions of the Lower Colorado River Valley this afternoon.
Persistent cool northerly to northwesterly flow aloft will help
nudge temperatures down a degree or two for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models continue to trend away from any impactful weather later
this week with a second Pacific trough now expected to take a more
northerly track. Ensembles are now in very good agreement the
next system for later Wednesday and Thursday will be much like the
first progressive system. Even compared to model runs yesterday,
the system shows a more eastward and northerly track shift
bringing the bulk of the energy across northeastern Arizona.
Additionally, the fact the trajectory of the trough is completely
inland and it is now likely to take a shallower track through our
region moisture will be even more limited than previously
expected. As are result, NBM PoPs have dropped dramatically since
yesterday with PoPs dropping to below 10% for all of the western
deserts and even the western half of the Phoenix metro. Depending
on the exact track of the system, the Arizona high terrain may
still see some light shower activity, but expected QPF amounts
have fallen below 0.05".

Temperatures should also dip a bit further with the passage of
the trough with lower desert highs falling more into the mid to
upper 60s for Thursday and Friday. Guidance also heavily favors a
more expansive ridge setting up over the eastern Pacific later
this week with a fairly likely chance of a portion of the ridge
will edge into our region by the weekend. Although the ridge is
shown to flatten out over the weekend, the weather pattern may
support the ridge to rebuild again and push farther into our
region during the first half of next week. We have high forecast
confidence in dry conditions prevailing well into next week with
temperatures eventually warming to above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1744Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the TAF
period. Outside of breezy northerly winds at KBLH gusting upwards
of 20-30 kts at times through the rest of this morning, winds at
the terminals will overall remain light, aob 7 kts, through the
TAF period. Extended periods of variable winds will be common
across the Phoenix area with a light N-NW component expected to
develop by late afternoon/early evening before switching back to
the east tonight. A brief light westerly component may try to
develop overnight tonight (~08Z-12Z) at KPHX, however, have not
added this to the TAF given the low confidence. Otherwise, mostly
clear skies will prevail outside of FEW passing high clouds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will continue to prevail for the bulk of the region
this week as two mostly dry weather systems pass near or through
portions of the region. Today`s weak weather system will only
bring breezy northerly winds across the Lower CO River Valley and
slightly cooler temperatures. Another weather system for late
Wednesday and Thursday may bring light precipitation chances, but
mostly to higher terrain areas. Humidities this week will stay
elevated with MinRHs mostly ranging between 25-35% much of the
time, with good to very good overnight recoveries. Winds are
expected to stay light across the eastern districts, while another
round of breezy conditions will be possible across the western
districts Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Smith
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman