819
FXUS65 KPSR 261939
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1239 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and tranquil weather conditions are expected through the
  remainder of the week with slightly above normal temperatures.

- A weather system arriving late Sunday and Monday is expected to
  bring much cooler temperatures and chances for precipitation
  focused more over the Arizona high terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level ridging will be dominating the area through
Thanksgiving day. The ridge weakens by Friday with some weak
troughing and northwest flow developing on Friday. Meanwhile, a
weakening upper low caught under the ridge as visible well off the
southwest coast will move inland on Thursday bringing a period of
higher clouds by mid/late day Thursday. Otherwise, the pattern
keeps dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures to the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The first part of this weekend will stay quiet across the region,
but we will continue to transition into a broad troughing pattern
with a fast moving disturbance first passing across northern Utah
into Colorado. The lowering heights will help to bring
temperatures down to fairly close to normal readings on Saturday,
but conditions will stay dry and skies will remain mostly clear.
As we enter a more active weather pattern once again, guidance has
been trying to bring a disturbance through our region at some
point Sunday into early next week.

Ensembles had initially been quite favorable for a slower and
more impactful weather system, but over the past couple of days
have gradually shifted toward a progressive system with a more
northerly track. There are still some ensemble members (maybe 15%)
calling for a slower system with more precipitation, but if the
trends continue it probably will not amount to much
precipitation. The latest NBM only gives 10-15% PoPs for the
deserts and 20-30% for the Arizona higher terrain. The current
timing as of now brings the system through here late Sunday and
early Monday with highs dropping from around normal on Sunday to a
few degrees below normal for next Monday- Wednesday.

The active weather pattern should continue into the latter half of
next week with guidance currently indicating a larger Pacific
weather system dropping southward along the West Coast,
potentially stalling out briefly to our west around next Wednesday
and Thursday. If this occurs, it could result in a decent
precipitation event at some point late next week for the Desert
Southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1710Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation concerns this forecast period. Winds will remain light
and overall from a northeast to east direction in the Phoenix
valley. At the SE California terminals, N/NW directions will be
preferred. There will be a few high clouds, with a general
increase in clouds late in the TAF period midday Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and tranquil weather conditions will continue into the weekend
with temperatures rising to around 3 to 6 degrees above average
lasting through Friday. Expect MinRHs between 25-35% through
Friday and 35-45% over the weekend with overnight recoveries
remaining good. Winds will be less than 10 mph and follow their
normal diurnal tendencies with only marginal upslope gusts into
the upper teens to low 20s. A fast moving weather system should
then move through the region late Sunday and Monday providing
mostly high terrain precipitation chances with any accumulations
being light.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Frieders
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman