713
FXUS65 KPSR 221753
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1053 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

.UPDATE...18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A low pressure system will move through the region today
  bringing scattered showers, with pockets of moderate rainfall,
  to the region today.

- Showers will continue into Sunday afternoon and early evening before
  ending.

- Temperatures will remain below normal this weekend, return to
  near normal as early as Tuesday, and go slightly above normal
  by the end of the workweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level water vapor satellite imagery early this morning
reveals a deep upper level closed low centered just off the
northern coast of the Baja. This low has brought off and on light
to moderate showers mainly across SE CA and SW AZ. Radar imagery
shows continued light showers mainly over SE CA, northern Baja,
and NW Sonora. With the low just off the coast increased moisture
remains in place across these areas with PWATs around 0.7-1.0".
Drier air remains in place across central and eastern AZ with
PWATs of 0.4-0.7". The low pressure system will finally start to
move onshore throughout the morning hours and move into SW AZ by
late tonight/early tomorrow morning. Shower chances into early
this afternoon will stay confined to SE CA and SW AZ, with
rainfall totals for these areas staying generally under 0.30".

As the low pushes into AZ PWATs across central and eastern AZ will
also be on the rise, approaching the 0.8-1.0" range by mid to late
this afternoon and this evening. The increase in moisture in
conjunction with the vorticity from the low pressure system will
result in isolated to scattered showers moving into central and
eastern AZ by mid to late this afternoon and this evening. Most
activity may initially just be sprinkles/drizzle/virga showers as
the lower levels moisten up. The best timing for more steady
rainfall across south-central AZ (including the Phoenix Metro)
currently looks to be during the early to mid evening hours and
during the late evening hours and into the overnight hours across
the foothills and higher terrain areas.

Isolated to scattered showers and areas of sprinkles/drizzle will
continue into Sunday across the CWA as the low moves through the
region. Any lingering activity across SE CA will come to an end by
Sunday morning, and Sunday afternoon across SW and south-central AZ,
and early Sunday evening across the higher terrain in eastern AZ.
The center of the low will exit the state of AZ by Sunday evening
ending rain chances across the CWA. Rainfall totals, for Saturday-
Sunday, of 0.00-0.25" are forecasted for the lower deserts of south-
central AZ and 0.25-0.50" across the foothills and higher terrain
areas. Locally higher amounts are possible for areas that receive
more moderate to heavy rainfall and/or multiple rounds of showers.
Less than 0.10" of additional rainfall is expected across SE CA
and SW AZ with any activity on Sunday, however, most locations
will see only a few hundredths or no accumulations at all.

With the low pressure system moving across SE CA and SW AZ today
temperatures out there will remain well below normal with highs in
the low to mid 60s. With the low not moving through central and
eastern AZ until late tonight into Sunday, temperatures will be near
to slightly below normal with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s
across the lower deserts of central AZ and in the mid to upper 60s
across the higher terrain areas. Tomorrow, the low will be east SE
CA where temperatures will be near to slightly below normal with
highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. The low will be moving across AZ
on Sunday resulting in below normal temperatures. Highs will be in
the low to mid 60s across the lower deserts of SW  and south-central
AZ and in the mid to upper 50s across the higher terrain. Morning
lows both days will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s across the
lower deserts and in the 40s across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the upcoming workweek calm, dry, and tranquil weather conditions
will make a return to the Desert Southwest. The low pressure system
that will bring rain to the region this weekend will be well to the
east by Monday. In the wake of the low pressure system, heights
aloft will be around 574-577 dm on Monday slowly rising to around
578-581 dm by Friday. This will result in a gradual warming trend
through the workweek, with temperatures returning to near normal as
early as Tuesday and going slightly above normal by the end of the
workweek. Across the lower deserts afternoon high temperatures are
forecasted to range from the mid 60s to low 70s on Monday and rising
to the mid 70s by the end of the workweek. For the higher terrain
areas, afternoon highs on Monday will be in the low 60s rising to
the upper 60s to low 70s by the end of the workweek. Additionally
morning lows will range from the mid 40s to low 50s across the lower
deserts and in the low to mid 40s across the higher terrain through
the workweek. With rising heights aloft, forecast confidence is very
good that dry conditions will prevail through this coming workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1750Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
The main aviation concerns through the TAF period will be
potential for lower cigs/vsbys and periods of light to moderate
SHRA developing this evening. Cigs will continue to gradually
lower to around 6-7 kft this afternoon and early evening. Model
guidance suggests CIGs will lower even farther late tonight, with
at least a 40-50% chance of MVFR conditions developing at all
terminals after 06Z. The majority of the SHRA will arrive early
this evening (around 00Z-02Z) which will promote reductions in
vsbys to around 5-6 SM. SHRA will begin to become less widespread
during the overnight/early morning hours Sunday as the center of
the low pressure system moves overhead. Winds are expected to
shift out of the west for a few hours this afternoon before
returning to the ESE as the rainfall arrives this evening.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
The main aviation concerns over the next few hours will be
persistent light rainfall, particularly at KIPL which could
temporarily reduce vsby to MVFR. Otherwise, conditions are
expected to improve late this afternoon as rain clears out of the
region. Cigs should range between 7-8 kft through tonight. Winds
will be predominantly westerly at KIPL and W-SW at KBLH through
the forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Below normal temperatures continue this weekend, with temperatures
only a couple degrees shy of normal across the central and
eastern districts today. A low pressure system will be moving
through the region today and tomorrow bringing scattered showers
and a decent chance of wetting rains to all districts. With this
weather system moving through the region minRHs will continue to
be in the 40-75% range with excellent overnight recovery of
80-100%. On Monday the minRH drops slightly to 40-60%, but
overnight recovery will remain excellent. Temperatures return to
near normal area wide as early as Tuesday with temperatures going
slightly above normal by the end of this coming workweek. MinRHs
drop to 30-50% on Tuesday and then 25-35% for the remainder of the
workweek, with overnight recoveries of 50-70%. Locally gusty
winds upwards of 20 mph will be possible at times, though weaker
wind speeds will be more common through the period.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM...Berislavich
AVIATION...Salerno
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich