001
FXUS65 KPSR 032323
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
423 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

.UPDATE...Updated 00z Aviation Discussion...

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry and generally quiet conditions are expected to
  continue into next week. A few light showers possible through
  this evening across south-central Arizona.

- Sub-freezing temperatures expected for higher terrain areas,
  including southern Gila County, for Thursday morning.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures continue through the
  end of the workweek before going above normal this weekend, and
  then gradually warming through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Early afternoon satellite WV imagery and showed a positively tilted
trough pushing through the Four Corners region, delivering breezy
conditions, cooler temperatures, and some precipitation across parts
of the state. Mostly clear skies are seen over much of the CWA
according to the latest visible satellite imagery. However, light
precipitation is occurring north of the Valley. Hi-res guidance show
this light precipitation mostly diminishing as it approaches the
lower deserts, but can`t rule out a light shower sneaking further
into parts of northern Maricopa County heading into this evening.

Out to the west across portions of southeast California and the
Lower Colorado River Valley, breezy northerly winds continue in
response to a tightened pressure gradient associated with this
weather system and frontal passage. Gusts upwards of 20-30 mph will
continue into this evening before weakening, with lingering
breeziness possible through Thursday morning.

The passage of this system will usher in cooler temperatures with
morning lows flirting with freezing in a few higher terrain areas by
tomorrow morning. Temperatures across portions of southern Gila
County are forecast to dip near to slightly below freezing for
tomorrow morning as the area sees some of the coldest temperatures
so far this season. Thus, have issued a Freeze Warning for portions
of southern Gila County, including San Carlos, Miami/Globe, and
Tonto Basin. Meanwhile across JTNP, cold temperatures are also
expected with a few higher elevation locales expected to dip to
around freezing tonight. Cold temperatures continue for Friday
morning as some of the aforementioned areas continue to flirt with
the freezing mark. Additional Freeze Warnings may be needed as a
result.

The trough will then propagate toward the east and out of the region
tomorrow morning with drier conditions prevailing. Temperatures will
then remain near to slightly below normal through the end of the
workweek as lower desert highs top out in the mid to upper 60s each
day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/...
This weekend, the aforementioned ridge over the Pacific Ocean will
move eastward and stall just off the west coast. WHile the center of
the ridge will remain over the eastern Pacific Ocean, the eastern
portion of the ridge will be over much of Western CONUS. The center
of this ridge will strengthen through at least the middle of next
week. This ridge will dominate the eastern Pacific and Western CONUS
while a longwave trough dominates Central and Eastern CONUS.
Multiple shortwave troughs look like they will slide down the
western part of the longwave trough, moving from the Pacific
NW/southern British Columbia down into the Plains, temporarily
flattening the ridge. H5 heights, over the Desert SW, look to rise
into a 576-581 dm range this weekend and peak around 582-585 dm
during the middle of next week.

With high pressure dominating the region this weekend through at
least the middle of next week dry and tranquil conditions will
continue as well. Temperature wise, they will gradually warm this
weekend and continue to warm through the middle of next week.
Afternoon high temperatures will be near to slightly above normal
this weekend (lower deserts: upper 60s/low 70s, higher terrain: 60s)
and warm to 8-10 degrees above normal (lower deserts: mid to
upper 70s, higher terrain: upper 60s to mid 70s) by the middle of
next week. Morning low temperatures will warm to around 3-6
degrees above normal (lower deserts: upper 40s to low 50s, higher
terrain upper 30s to mid 40s) by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2320Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
The primary aviation weather issue early this evening will the
potential for an outflow boundary materializing from the
convective shower activity across Yavapai County and moving
southward into KDVT, KSDL, and KPHX, resulting an abrupt northerly
wind shift with some minor gustiness near 20 kts. Otherwise, no
other major aviation weather issues expected for the rest of the
TAF period with winds expected to maintain a fairly typical light
diurnal pattern with extended periods of light variability to
calm conditions. Skies will generally remain mostly clear with a
FEW passing mid to high-level cloud decks.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather concerns expected throughout the TAF
period under some passing high-level cloud decks. Winds will
generally fluctuate between the northwest to north with speeds
generally aob 10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Mostly dry conditions will continue to prevail across the region
through the next week, with a few light showers possible through
this evening as a weather system passes through the Four Corners
region. Breezy conditions, gusting upwards of 20-30 mph, will
continue through this evening with lingering breeziness possible
through Thursday morning. Humidities this week will stay elevated
with MinRHs mostly ranging between 20-35% much of the time, with
good to very good overnight recoveries. Near to slightly below
normal temperatures are forecast through Friday before a warming
trend pushes temperatures above normal by early next week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MST Thursday for
     AZZ556-557-560-562.

CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Berislavich
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Smith/Berislavich