033
FXUS65 KPUB 071739
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1039 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler with less wind across the plains today, but still
  breezy over the higher terrain.

- Dry conditions are expected Saturday through Thursday of next week.

- Saturday and Sunday bring cooler temperatures, with a warmup
  expected thereafter.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 202 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderate
northwest flow aloft across the region, with one weak wave
translating across the Northern High Plains and another embedded
short wave translating across the Intermountain West at this time.
Passing Northern Plains wave will send a dry front across the
plains, with weak pressure rises being realized across northeastern
Colorado at this time. Regional radar and satellite data as of 1 am
were indicating generally clear skies across the state, with some
mid and upper level moisture translating across the Intermountain
West at this time.

For today and tonight...the weak cold front will continue to push
south and west across the southeast plains this morning, with low
level south to southeast winds expected to develop through the late
morning and afternoon. This, along with passing highs clouds through
the day, will keep temperatures some 5-10 degrees cooler than
yesterday, with highs mainly in the 60s across the plains, and in
the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain. Breezy northwest winds
over and near the higher terrain will bring spotty elevated fire
danger to portions of the Upper Arkansas River Valley and the San
Luis Valley, with the limited coverage precluding any fire weather
highlights at this time. The Intermountain West wave will continue
to translate east later tonight, which will send another cold front
across eastern Colorado through the day on Saturday. Moisture, CAA
and orographic flow associated with this second passing wave will
lead to some light snow developing across the Northern and into the
Central Mtns later tonight, though any accumulations across the
Central Mtns will be spotty and confined to the highest peaks.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 202 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

Saturday: For the start of the weekend, a quiet but breezy day is
expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. Synoptically,
northwesterly flow will be in place over the region as troughing
sits across the central and eastern US. While orographic forcing
will be ongoing with this flow pattern, dry air advection and major
forcing staying to the east will allow for dry conditions
throughout the day. This pattern will however bring a cold front
early in the day, which will bring breezy winds behind it, with
gusts of 25-35 mph for much of the region, especially across the
plains. Otherwise, a mostly clear day with mild temperatures is
anticipated. Speaking of temperatures, thanks to the cold front
passage early in the day, much of the area will fall back to around
seasonal values for early November.

Saturday Night - Thursday: For the rest of the long term period,
quiet weather continues for south central and southeastern Colorado.
Northwesterly flow will remain in place through Sunday, and then
transition to ridging by Monday, with that flow pattern persisting
through midweek. Confidence in this pattern evolution is fairly high
(80%) given strong and continued agreement between model guidance.
With the lack of major forcing still, and subsidence increasing into
next week, dry conditions will prevail across the region into much
of next week. With that said, there may be some weak waves/vort
maxes that drift over the area during this timeframe, but any
influence from these is expected to minimum, with brief upticks in
cloud cover at most. Beyond all of that, winds will become more
relatively light, with pockets of mid to high level clouds expected
through this period. Looking at temperatures, Sunday is anticipated
to be the coolest day thanks to an additional cold front passage
early Saturday night. This is expected to drop temperatures to below
seasonal value across much of south central and southeastern
Colorado. For Monday onward, a warmup is in store, with temperatures
returning to above seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1037 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Winds will follow weak
diurnal cycle today and this evening at all terminals, then
cold front passes through KCOS after 11z Sat morning, bringing a
brief period of gusty north winds.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...PETERSEN