557
FXUS65 KPUB 111826
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1126 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures are expected for today, with
  gusty west winds over the high country, through our gap flow
  areas, and over our far eastern plains.

- Upper low over the weekend will bring cooler temperatures and
  increasing rain/snow chances to southern CO though confidence
  in storm track and strength remains low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 257 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

Currently..

Satellite imagery shows broken mid and upper-level cloud decks over
most of the forecast area early this morning, as ridging continues
to build in from our west. Temperatures are significantly warmer
than last night, with much of our plains still sitting in the 40s
and 50s as of 2 AM. Dew points are in teens and 20s. Winds are
mainly westerly.

Today and Tonight..

Ridging continues over the western conus, but flattens a bit
throughout the day today. This will keep northwesterly flow aloft
overhead, along with warmer than normal temperatures. Most locations
will be just a few degrees warmer than yesterday, which will be
around 10 to 15 degrees above normal, and near record warmth for
some locations. Colorado Springs standing record is 73F set back in
1999, and our forecast high for today is 72F. Highs look to climb
well into the mid 70s across the plains, and into the upper 50s for
our mountain valleys. Gusty northwesterly and northerly winds are
expected, with gusts to 25 mph are also possible, especially over
the high country, the gap flow areas, Kiowa County, and Baca County.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are also likely, with middle and upper-
level cloud continuing to pass over the region. Overnight lows
tonight will be very similar to last night over the high country and
through our high mountain valleys. Slightly cooler, but still warmer
than normal, temperatures are expected over the plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

Broad upper ridging remains over the area Wed and Thu bringing
warmer temperatures and bouts of mid/high level wave cloudiness
at times. High temperatures will remain around 10-15 degrees
above normal with continued dry conditions and relatively light
winds.

Southwest flow increases for Friday as a Pacific low moves into
southern CA late in the day. Moisture caught in the flow ahead
of this system spreads into the southwest mountains and
Continental Divide which will result in afternoon and overnight
showers spreading into the higher terrain. Higher peaks could
pick up some light snow, but with the system well off to the
southwest, forcing looks weak and precipitation amounts
(including high elevation snow) should remain light. Friday will
continue warm with westerly downslope winds across the I-25
corridor and adjacent plains. Some spotty critical fire weather
will be possible for some of these areas depending on timing of
winds and humidity levels, though areal coverage looks limited
for now.

As the closed low advances eastward through the Desert
Southwest, precipitation chances will increase Saturday across
the Continental Divide, spreading into the southeast mountains
and plains Saturday night and Sunday. Given the cut off nature
to this system, confidence in the storm track and strength is
still low. GFS is the fastest and farthest north, with the
storm tracking across AZ into southeast CO on Sunday. EC and
Canadian are around 6-12 hrs slower, with Canadian slightly
farther south with the storm track through Monday morning.
Various ensemble means fill the system as it tracks to the
northeast which really dampens out the flow aloft leading to a
more open wave. Confidence is high that temperatures will cool
off to closer to normal over the weekend, and highest
confidence for precipitation continues to be across the
southwest mountains and Continental Divide where several inches
of snow will be possible through the event, especially for the
Eastern San Juans where southwesterly orographic flow and
proximity to the upper low will be most favorable. Elsewhere,
the devil is still in the details. Snow levels drop to around
8000 feet Sunday night/Mon morning with the potential for some
light accumulations across the southeast mountains.
Probabilities for an inch or more of snow on the Palmer and
Raton remain under 20% for all of the NBM members. Elsewhere,
precipitation will fall as rain, with probabilities greatest (20
to 30 percent) for wetting rains (0.10 or greater) along our
southern border south of US 50. We don`t tap much cold air with
this system either, with high temperatures expected to drop to
near to a little below normal for Sunday, which will yield a
mix of 50s across the plains, with 30s and 40s across the
mountains and valleys.

The system pulls away to the east on Monday with flow
transitioning to west to northwesterly early next week. This
will keep temperatures near to a little below normal with
unsettled conditions continuing for the central mountains where
some lingering showers will be possible. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1058 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR the next 24 hrs at all taf sites, with occasional periods of
mountain wave cirrus, especially this afternoon. Gusty NW winds
at KCOS and KPUB early this afternoon will gradually diminish
by sunset, becoming light drainage after 06z-08z. At KALS, light
and variable winds will continue through the period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...PETERSEN