835
FXUS65 KPUB 011718
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1118 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record highs on Sunday for Colorado Springs and Pueblo.

- Elevated fire weather conditions on Tuesday for the I-25
  corridor, and possibly more widespread on Thursday afternoon.

- A couple of snow showers possible Thursday afternoon and
  evening north of Cottonwood Pass.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 246 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Average temperatures are expected across southern Colorado for your
Saturday. Winds will be relatively light across the region and no
precipitation is expected. One thing to note is that a trough
axis will fully exit Colorado which will usher in dry air across
the region. Notably low temperatures over the San Luis and
upper Rio Grande Valleys will dip into the mid to low teens due
to efficient radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 246 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Only minor changes to the extended forecast, mainly on Thursday,
as the trough forecast to impact the area has trended a bit
further north with less wind and Central Mountain snow.

Sunday...upper level high pressure will build across the region
on Sunday with heights rising across the region. This will lead
to near record highs across the Plains. Overall, highs will
reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s, with both Colorado
Springs and Pueblo pushing records (KCOS record 76 in 1941 with
a forecast of 77, and KPUB record 81 in 2008 with a forecast of
81).

Sunday night through Wednesday...the main concern for the first
part of the extended period will be elevated fire weather
concerns on Tuesday. A weak upper shortwave will pass to the
north on Monday which will send a cold front back across the
Plains. Temperatures on Monday will reach into the lower to mid
60s across much of the region, with a few spots near Trinidad
pushing the lower 70s. Flow aloft becomes increasingly westerly
on Tuesday, which will promote mixing across the Plains.
Humidity values will fall to under 15 percent, and gap wind
prone areas along the I-25 corridor will see elevated fire
weather concerns Tuesday afternoon. Afternoon highs on Tuesday
will return to the mid to upper 70s across the Plains. Another
weak cold front arrives on Wednesday morning, with slightly
cooler air across the Plains, with highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. No precipitation is forecast at this time through
Wednesday.

Thursday...the main differences in the models occur on Thursday,
as a strong upper wave moves across Wyoming into the Central
Plains. The main change with this cycle, is a more northerly
track, with less and across the Plains, and less snow over the
Central Mountains. Overall, a few light snow showers cannon be
ruled out Thursday afternoon and evening north of Cottonwood
Pass, but all long range guidance is significantly less with
less than an inch. Given the more northerly track, winds do not
look quite as strong across the Plains. That being said,
temperatures will warm back into the 70s, and more widespread
elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the
Plains.

Friday and Saturday...flat zonal flow will continue for late
into the work week into next week. The GFS is most aggressive
with another dry, upper shortwave with more wind across the
region. The ECMWF and ICON are not as impressive with with the
upper wave. Temperatures look to remain warm on Friday with 60s
and 70s across the region, while a cold front with the passing
wave lowers temperatures on Saturday a few degrees.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through the next
24 hours. Light and variable winds are expected over
KALS, but expect more of a diurnal flow regime for KCOS and
KPUB.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO