654
FXUS65 KPUB 221751
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1051 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry today with more snow spreading into the southern mountains
  late tonight.

- Mountain/Valley snow, and plains rain Sunday into Sunday
  night (Some snow for N El Paso county Sunday night?)

- Colder Tuesday and Wednesday

- Dry/seasonable Thanksgiving into Saturday, then potential for
  higher impact weather Sunday and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 153 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

Shortwave ridging will bring dry and warmer weather to southern
Colorado today as the next Pacific low pressure system pushes
onshore across the northern Baja Peninsula. Areas of morning
fog and low clouds across the San Luis Valley and portions of the
southeast plains will be locally dense at times early, before
gradually diminishing by mid morning. High temperatures today will
rebound  into the mid 50s to lower 60s across the plains, mid 40s to
mid 50s for the valleys and 30s and 40s for the higher mountains.
Winds will remain relatively light, increasing from the southeast in
the afternoon as pressures fall to the west with the approaching
system.

Upper low lifts northeastward into central AZ by 12z Sun.  Broad
difluence and increasing moisture spreads into the southern
mountains overnight with snow expanding across the eastern San Juan
mountains by dawn. A quick inch or two of snow will be possible
across the southwest facing slopes after 09z as favorable
southwesterly orographics works in tandem with approaching QG lift.
Travel conditions will begin to deteriorate over Wolf Creek Pass
towards morning where a winter weather highlight will go into
effect at 09z. Elsewhere, mid and high clouds will invade from the
south towards morning keeping low temperatures above normal. Kept
lows in line with model blends.  -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 153 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

Pacific storm system will be moving across the region at the
beginning of this time period (Sun 12 UTC). Mountain/Vally snow
and rain over lower elevations will likely be ongoing across a
good part of the region with only the far northern and eastern
sections being dry early in the day Sunday. As the morning
progresses, precipitation will lift north and east across the
region. By Sunday evening, mid level low will likely be over
the greater Pikes Peak region, and the precip will pivot from
the northern sangres/across Pikes Peak region and then into
northeast CO. By the early morning hours Monday the brunt of the
precip will be out of our region, and moving across NE CO.

Overall, this system is rather potent, but somewhat moisture
starved and is moving relatively quickly. Likewise, precip
amounts will not be all that great, but there will be enough to
warrant winter weather highlights for the San Juans where 5 to
10" is likely. The San Luis Valley and the remainder of the
mountains will likely see snow with this system, but amounts
will be less.

Two areas of concern I have attm will be how much snow will fall
over 1.) the San Luis Valley and 2.) Northern EL Paso county. For
now I have in the weather grids that snow will fall, and I do have
some light accumulations for these two regions, but I am concerned
the snow amounts may not be enough for these two areas.
Additionally, we may need to add other mountain areas into the snow
advisory later today.

The next concern will be the colder air that will move into the
region starting Tuesday. The nice mild temperatures of Monday (60s
plains) will be replaced by wind-blown 30s and 40s (plains) for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Although it will be much cooler these two
days it will be dry (except for some snow showers in the c mtns).

From Thanksgiving into Saturday it will be dry and seasonable.

Looking on from Sunday into the following weeks looks quite stormy
over the intermountain region, including Colorado. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1045 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions with generally light diurnal winds can be
expected at COS and PUB over the next 24 hours. Increasing
southerly flow overnight will bring in mid and high level
clouds, with increasing coverage of showers expected
at the tail end of this taf period.

VFR conditions are expected at ALS through the majority of
this taf period, with increasing southerly flow bringing in
mid and high level clouds through the overnight hours. There
will increasing coverage of showers spreading over the higher
terrain and across the San Luis Valley early Sunday morning,
with increasing chances of MVFR and brief IFR conditions with
showers at the terminal after 12Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday for
COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT/MW
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MW