530
FXUS65 KPUB 202133
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
233 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and higher elevation snow spreads north and east across
  south central and southeast Colorado tonight.

- Light to moderate snow accumulations across the higher terrain at
  or above 8000 ft, with some light snow accumulations possible on
  grassy areas along and south of the Palmer Dvd.

- Sun/Mon system looks stronger with better chance of precip most
  areas

- Getting colder (but mainly dry) towards Thanksgiving (lows in
  teens plains)

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 231 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

Current water vapor imagery and upper analysis indicates southerly
flow aloft across the region, with an upper trough lifting out across
the Southern Rockies at this time. Water vapor imagery is also
indicating a weak circulation and short wave across central New Mexico,
with regional radars indicating thunderstorms lifting out across
southeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle at this time. Regional
radars are also indicating ongoing showers across south central Colorado,
with warm advection showers lifting out across the southeast Colorado
Plains, and developing across the Pikes region at this time. Cloud cover
and precipitation has kept temperatures in the 40s to low 50s across
the plains this afternoon, with temperatures in 20s, 30s and 40s across
the higher terrain.

Latest model data indicates the weakening upper circulation to continue
to lift out across southeast Colorado through the late evening, which
then continues to weaken as it lifts out into west Central Kansas through
the day Friday. Movement of this system will help to develop more south
southeast mid level flow through the late afternoon, which becomes more
north to northeast through the overnight hours, before becoming north
to northwest through the day Friday. This will allow for increasing
coverage of precipitation over and near the higher terrain through the
evening, with showers spreading north and east across the southeast
Colorado through the overnight hours. Precipitation winds down through
the morning on Friday, with clearing skies from northwest to southeast
through Friday afternoon.

Overall heaviest rain will likely occur across the far southeast plains,
with southerly flow keeping ample moisture in place. As for snow, the
heaviest overall amounts will fall over the higher elevations of the
southeast mountains overnight, an additional 2 to 5 inches across
the higher elevations of Sangre de Cristos into the Pikes Peak region.
Additional accumulations of 1 to 3 inches looks possible across the
southwest and central mountains. Current higher terrain winter weather
advisories remain on target, parsing off from west to east through early
Friday morning. Latest model data indicating slightly cooler air within
developing northerly flow overnight, leading to the potential for some
light snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, mainly on grassy areas, along
and south of the Palmer Divide. Any travel impacts look to be mainly
isolated and confined to higher west of I-25.

Low temperatures tonight should only fall into the low/mid 30s along
the greater I-25 corridor region with upper 30s to lower 40sw across
the far southeast plains, with highs below seasonal levels in the mid
40s to low 50s  across the southeast plains, and mainly in the 30s and
40s across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 201 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

Dry weather with near seasonal temperatures remains in the
offing for Saturday, before the attention turns to our next
system moving in for the Sunday and Monday time frame. This
system now appears to be more organized and closed off then
earlier runs, and given its forecasted track, promises to bring
more higher elevation snow and rain to the region. Per trends in
DESI guidance, qpf is increasing with time region- wide. From a
pattern recognition perspective, this system will have the
potential to bring favorable upslope flow to our mtns, and we
could we may see some healthy snow fall amounts with this system
over the southern mtn region. Trends with this system will have
to be watched closely.

Later in the fcst period, as we approach the Thanksgiving time
period it appears a cooling trend will occur as highs in the 30s
and 40s plains (with lows in the teens and 20s) are expected.
It should be dry over most of the region during the holiday time
period but with the increasing NW flow aloft, snow showers will
be likely over the central mtn region. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1058 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

Mainly VFR conditions at COS and PUB through the early afternoon,
with developing showers in the late afternoon and evening develops
MVFR conditions through the evening. Precipitation to be rain
at PUB, with a low chance of snow mixing in with rain at COS,
though no accumulation is expected at the terminal. Passing wave
develops northerly winds at COS and PUB aft 06Z with generally
VFR cigs slowly lifting late in the taf period.

At ALS, the first piece of the passing wave brought showers to
the terminal early this morning, with occasional MVFR conditions
persisting through the late afternoon and early evening with
passing showers. Partial clearing skies through the evening may
lead to low clouds and fog aft 06Z, and have kept MVFR cigs in
place through early Wednesday morning, with lifting cigs and VFR
conditions expected late in this taf period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for
COZ068.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Friday for COZ073-075-
082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MW