291
FXUS65 KPUB 142030
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
130 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several degrees cooler tomorrow, but still warm and dry all areas.

- A pattern change arrives Sunday, bringing cooler temperatures,
  and  chances for rain and snow, especially to the high
  country, for Sunday into Monday

- An active pattern looks to remain in place through much of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 124 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

Another warm day was occurring over the region this afternoon,
and this will likely be the warmest day of this entire fcst
period. Although it will start to cool off starting tomorrow as
a weak backdoor cool front moves into the region, the cooling
will only be gradual initially, with afternoon temperatures
tomorrow only a few degrees cooler than todays max temps. With
the ridge aloft over the area, it will continue to be dry, but
increasing mid and upper level moisture will bring a return to
clouds in our skies tomorrow.

Wind flow tomorrow should be diurnal and relatively light, so
fire meteorological fire weather concerns tomorrow will be low.

As for tonight, it will be mild with lows in the 40s plains and
20s San Luis Valley. 30s will predominate in the mtns. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

Saturday Night Through Monday..

Overnight lows on Saturday look to remain warmer than normal, thanks
to increasing southwesterly flow aloft and mixing ahead of the
incoming low. The San Luis Valley is likely to still drop down into
the 20s, with much of our plains only cooling down into the upper
30s and low 40s. The banana belt may see locations remaining in the
upper 40s. Models suggest a secondary push of cooler air Sunday
morning, though highs don`t look much colder for Sunday afternoon.
Our plains look to warm back into the low 70s or so on Sunday. There
is still a high amount of uncertainty with the incoming system, but
the general consensus does still favor snow for our mountains and at
least a small chance for rain for much of our plains. At this time,
models bring an open and weaker wave into the Great Basin by Sunday
evening, spreading best chances for accumulating snowfall into the
San Juans through Sunday evening and the overnight hours. There
looks to be an 80% chance for at least 6 or so inches of snow for
the San Juans, with lower end probabilities showing totals in the 8
to 10 inch range. Totals of closer to 2 to 4 inches or less look to
be the most likely scenario for the rest of our ranges. The
Wets and the Ramparts look to miss out on accumulating snowfall
for the most part, and will likely be too warm for snow at that
time. Rain chances spread into the mountain adjacent plains late
Sunday evening and taper off through Monday morning. Timing and
track changes could drastically change precip timing and
totals, so stand by for updated forecasts! Cooler temperatures
does seem to be a certainty, with highs looking to remain in the
50s and 60s on Monday.

Tuesday Onwards..

Our pattern remains active throughout the rest of our work week,
with a series of lows passing through the region and a continued
lack of model consistency on the subject. Our temperatures look to
remain near normal or slightly cooler than normal, with highs
generally in the upper 40s and 50s. Best chances for precipitation
are likely to remain over the high country, though changes in
timing, track, and moisture associated with incoming systems may
lead to increased chances for moisture on our plains throughout the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1031 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS.

Gusty west-northwest winds will continue in KPUB during the
early afternoon then decrease. For KCOS and KALS, winds will
generally be diurnal in nature and relatively light

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...HODANISH