397
FXUS65 KPUB 092316
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
516 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tropical moisture from remnants of Priscilla will increase the flash
  flood risk over the eastern San Juans Friday and Saturday
  with widespread wetting rain possible across the remainder of
  the Continental Divide.

- Drier conditions expected for the plains through the weekend
  with above normal temperatures continuing.

- Drier weather expected for Sun and Mon but mountain showers
  and thunderstorms increase again mid to latter part of next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 212 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Tropical moisture ahead of the remains of Priscilla off the CA
Baja Peninsula will get picked up in deep southwest flow and
advected into the Continental Divide region tonight through
Friday. Precipitable waters will continue to increase tonight,
with values of around 200-300% of normal spreading into the
western mountains by Friday morning. Precipitation will come in
rounds for the Continental Divide with those that fall tonight
through Friday morning saturating the initially dry soil
conditions, and setting the stage for heavier runoff and a flash
flood potential for Friday afternoon and beyond as deep, warm
southwest upslope flow sets up into the region. Still looking at
around 1-3 inches of rainfall along the Continental Divide for
the event total, with some deterministic models even heavier
than that. Eastern San Juans will see the brunt of these heavier
amounts and have issued a Flood Watch for flash flooding
beginning Friday afternoon and continuing through Saturday
evening. Even though moderate to heavy rainfall will start in
rounds tonight through Friday morning, the initial rates do not
look sufficiently heavy to cause flash flooding until the soils
saturate. However, it should be stressed that we should start
to see deteriorating conditions (chilly and wet) in the back
country before the onset of the flash flood watch. Still looks
like the heaviest amounts will fall later Friday night and
Saturday for the peak window for flash flooding with soundings
exhibiting the potential for warm rain processes, especially for
the southwest facing slopes. (See discussion below) Otherwise,
the southeast mountains will see considerably less rainfall
tonight and Friday as spill over showers spread in from time to
time. The plains will remain dry with above normal temperatures
continuing. Didn`t need to stray far from NBM blends for
temperatures tonight and Friday as increasing dew points and
cloud cover should keep mountains and interior valleys on the
warm side. Snow levels through Fri will stay quite high, above
13,500 feet and really not expecting any snowfall accumulations
across the higher peaks due to very warm wetbulb zero heights.
-KT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Friday Night - Saturday: Heading into the weekend, active
weather continues, particularly for the mountains. Southwesterly
flow will persist over the area, though by this point the
aforementioned tropical system will be absorbed into the broader
flow and ejected across south central and southeastern
Colorado, bringing a surge in tropical moisture and forcing.
With the large rise in forcing and moisture, widespread showers
are expected along the higher terrain, but especially across the
San Juan Mountains where 2-3 inches of liquid are expected
given favorable wind orientation into the terrain allowing for
strong and persistent orographic forcing. Confidence is high
(70-80%) in this QPF given strong agreement between both
deterministic and ensemble model guidance, some of which show
even higher values. In addition, most, if not all, of this
precipitation is expected to be rain given this is a warm
airmass and snow levels will be around 13,500 ft. Given the
precipitation forecast, some flooding will be possible across
the San Juan Mountains. Otherwise, showers are anticipated to
spill across the valleys throughout this period, though with
much lighter, and the plains are expected to remain dry. Outside
of all of that, mostly cloudy to cloudy skies are anticipated
to persist areawide, with breezy conditions for many, especially
across the plains and San Luis Valley though, where wind gusts
around 30 mph are expected. Looking at temperatures, another
above seasonal temperature day is anticipated, but especially
across the eastern plains, where downsloping winds will keep
temperatures well above seasonal values.

Sunday - Wednesday: For the remainder of the long term period, some
active weather will continue for portions of south central and
southeastern Colorado. Overall, southwesterly will persist over the
region, though with potential embedded waves/troughs influencing the
area. Model guidance is in agreement above the broad southwesterly
being in place, but not so much above how and when the embedded
waves will influence the area. This tends to lower forecast
confidence some, but overall, showers are anticipated to persist on
and off across the mountains given the orographic forcing in place,
with drier conditions across the valleys and plains. There may be an
increase in showers across the entire region Monday night into
Tuesday as another moisture tap gets pulled northward, but
confidence in how much precipitation will develop is low (30) as this
will be dependent on how one of the embedded waves evolves. Beyond
all of that, periods of increased cloud cover and breezy winds will
persist for south central and southeastern Colorado. As for
temperatures, Sunday will be the warmest day, with another above
seasonal temperature day expected. As for Monday onward, a cool down
is anticipated as a cold front is expected to drop southward across
the area, bringing a cool down to many, especially on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 516 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR conditions with generally light diurnal wind regimes are
expected at COS and PUB over the next 24 hours. Will continue to
see increasing mid and high level clouds through the taf period.

Mainly VFR conditions expected at ALS over the next 24 hours.
Will see increasing clouds and lowering cigs through the
overnight hours, with the potential for MVFR cigs with passing
showers through the late morning and afternoon on Friday.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening for
COZ067-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...