681
FXUS65 KPUB 302128
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
228 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow spreads across southern Colorado this evening through early
Monday morning.

- Snow ends Monday with continued cold, warming on Tuesday.

- The next upper storm system will move across the area
  Wednesday with another round of snow for the Mountains, down
  into the I-25 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 227 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

Temperatures will remain cool the rest of today, with
increasing cloud cover as an upper trough continues moving
through our area from the northwest. Light snow has already
started over portions of the higher terrain, mainly over the
Central Mountains.

This evening into tonight, snow showers will spread across the rest
of the higher terrain, mountain valleys, and potentially portions of
the Pikes Peak Region as well. The main forecast challenge for this
event will be tonight. With the system moving across the I-25
corridor and providing some instability aloft, some of the high-res
model guidance is showing the potential or a few brief snow bands
over El Paso and/or Pueblo Counties, typically prior to 11pm or so.
Given the fast-moving nature of this system, should these snowbands
form they would result in about an hour of moderate snowfall rates,
but those rates could bring forecasted trace amounts of snow towards
the 1-2 inch range. So nothing worthy of any winter highlights, but
still more than enough to briefly limit visibility and make roadways
slick for a few hours.

Current high-res models predict an increase in confidence in the
formation of a few embedded bands of heavier snow, but the placement
will still be dependent on the timing of the upper-level ascent and
localized terrain factors. Current guidance is split between
northern Pueblo County and central El Paso County,including portions
of Colorado Springs. People within these areas should be wary of
quickly changing road conditions this evening.

Latest snow totals have not changed much from the previous forecast.
Heaviest accumulations are still expected over the San Juans and the
peaks of the Southern Sangres, with an additional 7-10 inches
between this evening and Monday morning. Meanwhile, the rest of the
Central Mountains and Pikes Peak will see widespread 2-4 inches,
with a few spots getting 5-6 inches. The mountain valleys, Upper
Arkansas, and areas along and west of I-25 should see less than an
inch or so. However, once again, embedded snow bands in El Paso
and/or Pueblo Counties may form briefly this evening, and could
bring localized amounts closer to an inch or so. Anywhere east of I-
25 should only receive trace amounts of snow, if any precipitation
manages to make it out that far before the system moves out of our
area.

Once the system moves past early Monday morning, conditions across
the area will dry out, with high temperatures climbing into the high-
30s to low-40s over the lower elevations, while the mountains remain
in the teens-20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 226 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

Models are in much better agreement tonight through the extended
period, with less spread in the track of the Wednesday system.
Ensembles are also more in line with the 00z cycle.

Monday night through Tuesday...a brief break in the active
weather is forecast during this time period, before the next
upper system moves into the region. Flow aloft transitions
westerly, and enhanced mixing will allow for temperatures to
warm quickly through the 40s to lower 50s for much of the
Plains. Gap wind prone areas along the I-25 corridor could see
breezy conditions through the afternoon. A few light snow
showers may be possible over the Central Mountains late in the
day and into Tuesday night.

Wednesday...the next quick moving upper trough will transition
across the state on Wednesday. Models in much better agreement
this morning, with all solutions dropping an upper trough into
the Intermountain West, and across Colorado. Snow will increase
late Tuesday night across the higher terrain, and spread
eastward Wednesday morning into the afternoon. A cold front will
arrive on the Plains Wednesday morning, with northeasterly low
level flow developing behind it. This will usher in colder air
with a quick period of snow Wednesday afternoon into the evening
as the upper trough axis swings through. The heaviest snow looks
to be confined ot the higher terrain, with a couple inches
possible down into the I-25 corridor. Much will depend on
temperatures, with lower to mid 30s expected Wednesday
afternoon.

Thursday through Sunday...models in agreement that persistent
northwest flow with embedded waves will prevail for late in the
work week through next weekend. Near continuous light snow would
prevail across the Central Mountains due to favorable
orographic flow. As for the Plains, northwest flow usually
limits precipitation and dry conditions are likely. Temperatures
will be dependent on individual cold fronts that may impact the
area, and with cold air settled to the east, it wouldn`t take
much to bring some of that cold air back into Colorado. For now,
high temperatures look to move from the 30s on Thursday, back
into the 40s to possible near 50 Friday into the weekend. Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1043 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

KALS: Gusty west winds and increasing clouds will move in this
afternoon, lowering cigs to MVFR through tonight and into early
Monday. Snow showers will move off of the higher terrain, starting
around 02Z, with potential impacts to the terminal between 05-09Z in
the form of lower clouds and light snow with limited visibility. VFR
conditions will return later Monday morning, near the end of this
forecast period.

KCOS and KPUB: MVFR conditions will mostly persist through the next
24 hours, due to increasing cloud cover. Later this evening, by
about 03Z or so, an incoming system will spread snow across the
higher terrain to the west. While VCSH will be present at both
terminals, there is also a low-end chance for isolated bands of snow
to move out over the I-25 corridor. If snowfall does move to the
terminals, it will result in brief periods of lowered visibility and
snow showers. Have included PROB30 groups to account for this
possibility. Outside of that, lingering nearby showers and some
lower clouds will last into early Monday morning, before VFR
conditions are expected to return.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Monday for COZ058-060-
073-075.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Monday for COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO