818
FXUS65 KPUB 082334
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
434 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and breezy on Tuesday, with areas of strong winds gusting
  50 to 60 mph over mountains through the day.

- Dry and mild temperatures expected through much of the long
  term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 216 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

Mild December weather at many locations today, as northwest
flow aloft continues. Have seen some gap and lee slope w-nw
winds gusting 20-30 kts at times, especially through much of the
Arkansas Valley, along with a corresponding boost in
temperatures, as readings have pushed into the 50s to near 60f
over most of the plains. Tonight and Tuesday, mid/upper level
winds increase, as strong upper jet digs into the nrn High
Plains. Should see winds increase across much of the high
terrain through the night, with gusty winds spreading to lower
east slopes and gap flow favored regions (Arkansas Valley from
Canon City to Pueblo plus downstream from La Veta Pass to
Walsenburg) toward sunrise. As a result, overnight min temps
will be milder, especially in wind-prone regions. Strong winds
aloft continue through the Tuesday, with gusts 40-60 mph likely
over the higher peaks and passes, especially from Monarch Pass
northward. Gap flow winds will persist as well, with gusts 35-45
mph around Walsenburg, 25-35 mph Pueblo/Canon City. Deep mixing
should boost max temps a few degf at many areas, and ran with
numbers slightly higher than blended guidance, especially in
windy locations. Might be enough moisture for a few snow
showers late int the day over the higher peaks around
Leadville, but no substantial snowfall expected, though winds
will be strong enough for widespread blowing/drifting snow,
especially at/above pass level.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 232 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

Tuesday: For Tuesday, relatively quiet weather is anticipated for
south central and southeastern Colorado, though with windy
conditions for many. Northwesterly flow will be in place over the
region, and given the lack of any major forcing, dry conditions are
expected. The exception to this may be an isolated snow shower or
two along the central mountains where orographic forcing will be
ongoing. Beyond that though, as alluded to, it will be fairly breezy
areawide. Weak mountain wave dynamics are anticipated to be in
place, allowing for strong winds up to around 60 mph to develop
along the leeward side of many of the major mountain ranges,
particularly the Sawatch, Sangre de Cristo, and Rampart Mountains.
While stronger winds will be possible along the mountains,
confidence in that is low (20%) at this time, as model guidance
keeps stronger flow north of the area, and the wind orientation,
northwesterly, doesn`t usually favor intense downslope windstorms.
Outside of that, gusty winds up to 40-50 mph are expected in the
prominent gap flow areas of La Veta Pass and through the Arkansas
River Valley from Fremont County into Pueblo County, with gusts of
20-25 mph elsewhere. Otherwise, mild temperatures and partly cloudy
skies are anticipated for the area. Looking at temperatures, much of
the region will warm to above seasonal values thanks to the
downsloping winds, with 50s to 60s for the plains, 40s for the
valleys, and 30s to 40s for the mountains.

Tuesday Night - Sunday: For the rest of the long term period, quiet
weather prevails for south central and southeastern Colorado.
Northwesterly will remain in place over the region, and given the
lack of major forcing, dry conditions are expected to persist.
Confidence in this pattern is high (80%) given strong agreement
between ensemble model guidance. Like Tuesday though, an isolated
snow shower can`t be ruled out along the central mountains where
orographic forcing will be greatest. Otherwise, breezy conditions
will continue, especially along the mountains, with pockets of mid
to high level clouds expected through this period. As for
temperatures, above seasonal temperatures are anticipated to
continue given downsloping winds. With that said though, there may
be backdoor cold fronts that push across the area during this
timeframe, which would drop temperatures, especially across the
plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 429 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. West to
northwest winds will spread into the KCOS and KPUB terminals on
Tuesday with an earlier start at KPUB as it spreads down the
Arkansas River Valley overnight into the early morning hours.
There`s some uncertainty on whether NW winds will spread into
KCOS as some solutions suggest an axis of southeast winds will
could set up over the terminal during the afternoon. Given the
more northwesterly component to the wind direction aloft,
confidence is highest that these winds will mix down into the
terminal, but a more westerly direction could put KCOS in the
wake flow region of Pikes Peak leading to a more southeasterly
wind direction. This possibility will be monitored closely.
KALS will see generally light and variable winds. All three
terminals will see variable high cloudiness at times through the
24 hour period. -KT

-KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...KT