747
FXUS62 KRAH 080145 RRA
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
845 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will hold to our southeast through the rest of the weekend,
as weak high pressure settles over North Carolina and the Mid
Atlantic region. An Arctic cold front will move southeastward
through the area on Monday, while an upper level disturbance passes
overhead. Chilly high pressure will build in from the north Monday
night and Tuesday, then move to our southeast, allowing a southwest
flow and milder temperatures to return for Wednesday and Thursday.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 110 PM Sunday...

* Temperatures remain below normal.

* Approaching rain, with potentially a few flakes of snow by
  morning.

Weak high pressure will continue to pass through the mid-Atlantic
through the day today ahead of an approaching trough and associated
cold front. Areas of dense fog this morning have improved, with most
airports reporting 7+ miles of visibility. Low stratus remains, but
appear to be dissipating some with daytime heating. Partly to mostly
cloudy skies look to remain through the afternoon, with increasing
clouds tonight ahead of the frontal passage. Precip chances look to
have the best chance of holding off until after sunrise on Monday.
However, a brief period of cold, light rain with a few snowflakes
mixed in may be possible in the Triad just before sunrise.

Temperatures this afternoon look to stay cooler than previously
forecast with the increased cloud cover, generally into the 40s,
with a few spots staying in the upper 30s. Lows tonight should dip
into the upper 20s to low 30s, with much of the region at or below
freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Sunday. . .

* A Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 7am Monday through 12pm
  Tuesday for portions of the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal
  Plain of central NC.

* Up to an inch of snow accumulation is possible, highest along the
  immediate NC/VA border, with lesser amounts south. Isolated areas
  near the VA/NC border could receive up to 2 inches of snow.

* Any leftover moisture will freeze Monday night resulting in areas
  of black ice Tuesday morning, thus the extension for the Winter
  Weather Advisory through noon on Tuesday.

An upper-level trough and its accompanying surface cold front will
move across the region Monday, bringing widespread precipitation and
a rapid influx of cold air. The exact overlap of the cold air and
precipitation remains key to the forecast, but model guidance has
been consistent in showing the cold air arriving with the precip,
supporting a transition to snowespecially across the northern
Piedmont.
Triad / NW Piedmont: Precipitation is expected to begin between 57
AM, impacting the morning commute. Expect a rain/snow mix through
mid-morning, with a transition to all snow by mid/late morning as
temperatures fall. Snow will taper quickly during the afternoon as
drier air arrives.
Triangle Area: Precipitation will begin around 78 AM, again during
the morning commute. A longer period of rain and rain/snow mix is
expected here as temperatures stay too warm for a change over to all
snow south of US-64. Brief bursts of snow are possible late morning
mainly along the I40 corridor. A more definitive change to all snow
across the area is expected between 35 PM as colder, drier air
arrives, though the dry air may sharply cut off precip shortly after
the transition.
Coastal Plain (mainly for the northern counties in the Advisory):
Onset will occur late morning, mainly as rain. A rain/snow mix is
expected by late morning to early afternoon, with northern counties
likely seeing a few hours of all snow in the afternoon before dry
air arrives from the west and ends precipitation. Duration of all-
snow will depend on how quickly the dry air pushes east.
Across central NC, precipitation will end abruptly between 68 PM as
the very dry post frontal airmass overspreads the region.
Behind the front, strong cold advection will drop temperatures
quickly Monday evening and overnight. Lows by Tuesday morning will
fall into the upper teens to low 20s. The Winter Weather Advisory
continues through Tuesday morning due to the threat of black ice, as
any residual moisture on roads is expected to flash freeze.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 PM Sunday...

* Continued chilly Tue/Tue night, then moderating Wed/Thu before
  dropping back well below normal by Sat/Sun.

* Precip chances return late Thursday night through Friday night
  associated with another cold front.

After Monday`s cold frontal passage, high pressure will build into
the region from the northwest on Tuesday before reaching south of
the region by Wednesday. This will allow for temperatures to remain
well below normal on Tuesday, but moderate to near normal on
Wednesday and Thursday as the high brings in warmer air from the
south. A trough and its associated cold front then looks to move
through the region late Thursday. With this front, light rain is
currently expected to begin late Thursday night and last through
Friday. Current model soundings support that a brief period of light
snow may be possible on the back end of the precipitation if
moisture is able to stick around long enough for the cold air to
reach central NC, but ice does not look to be supported. If any snow
is to fall, only light amounts currently look possible late Friday
night. Details will refined as we get closer to the event.
Additionally, a dry reinforcing cold front looks to move through the
region Saturday, dropping temperatures well below normal for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 815 PM Sunday...

A deck of high clouds is still streaming across the Sandhills and
Coastal Plain, but it is quickly exiting to the SE. And even despite
these high clouds, visibilities are already beginning to lower, with
MVFR to IFR being reported at many spots from RDU south and east.
Farther NW where clearing has occurred for longer, IFR to LIFR
ceilings and visibilities are already being observed. Satellite
imagery shows the next deck of mid-level clouds approaching from the
TN Valley, but there will be a window in the late evening and early
overnight hours when clearing will take place, and based on
virtually all available high-res guidance, the mid-level clouds
should initially be thin enough that some fog and very low stratus
are likely to occur in many areas. So added a TEMPO group for this
potential at all TAF sites, from 03z to 07z at INT and GSO and 2-4
hours later at the eastern terminals.

A rain/snow mix and associated IFR or MVFR ceilings and visibilities
will then spread in from west to east in the early morning around
INT and GSO, changing over to all snow by late morning before ending
by mid to late afternoon. Precipitation will likely start in the
late morning or early afternoon at the eastern terminals, initially
as a rain/snow mix at RDU and RWI before changing to snow in the
early to mid afternoon. IFR or LIFR visibilities are likely where
all snow occurs. At FAY, precipitation should start as rain before
possibly changing to a brief rain/snow mix at the end of the event.
Precipitation will diminish in coverage and intensity by late
afternoon with visibilities improving, but an upper disturbance may
result in some additional light snow in the east during the evening
hours.

Outlook: Dry weather will return area-wide by Monday night, but some
low stratus may linger for the first part of the night, with
initially IFR conditions improving to MVFR and eventually VFR as
skies clear. VFR weather is then forecast from Tuesday through
Friday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST Monday for NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Monday to noon EST Tuesday for
NCZ007>011-021>028-041>043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...LH
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...LH
AVIATION...Danco