276
FXUS62 KRAH 012320
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
620 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold high pressure will migrate quickly across and offshore the
Middle Atlantic today and tonight, ahead of low pressure that will
develop and rapidly strengthen from the Southeast to the Middle
Atlantic coast on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Monday...

Dry conditions through the rest of day, with cloud coverage
gradually increasing. Highs will run about 10 degrees below normal,
topping out in the mid-40s north to low 50s south.

Surface high pressure will shift to the northeast this afternoon and
evening continuing to filter in cool dry air. Meanwhile across the
Southeast states, a frontal boundary will lift north late this
evening and bring rain chances beginning after midnight. Another
surface low over the TN valley will be inching east with an extra
push of moisture into our region. Cold rain is mainly expected
overnight into early Tuesday as temperatures will hover just above
freezing with overnight lows ranging from 33/34 across the north to
upper 30s across the south. Ground temperatures are expected to be
to warm for any freezing but commuters should be extra cautious
overnight/ early morning with wet roads. QPF amounts for tonight
through early Tuesday morning will range from 0.25 to 0.50 with
greater amounts across the south and western areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Monday...

A plume of moisture ahead of an approaching upper level trough will
move across the Carolinas early Tuesday, producing widespread rain
and even moderate rain at times. By early afternoon, it will begin
to move offshore, allowing drier air to spread in from the west. At
the surface, a weakening high over New England will filter in a
wedge of cool air over central NC Tuesday morning. At the same time,
a  coastal low will track up the Carolina coast and then race toward
Nova Scotia by early Wednesday. As this low pulls away, surface high
pressure will shift over the Mid-Atlantic region with colder and
drier air behind it.

Despite the cold air in place, the pattern is not supportive of
wintry weather in central NC this time, and all precipitation is
expected to fall as cold rain. Total rainfall amounts will range
from around 0.50 inch in the northwest Piedmont to near 0.85 inches
toward the Coastal Plain, where moisture and lift will be strongest.
Storm total amounts will be 0.50 in the NW to 1.25 across the SE for
the  entirety of the event.

Temperatures Tuesday morning will be in the mid to upper 30s
northwest to low/mid 40s southeast, making for a chilly start. As
the rain ends and winds turn northwest, the wedge will erode,
allowing temperatures to slowly climb into the mid upper 40s and
possibly reach the low 50s in in the south east. Clear and colder
night on Tuesday as temperatures will get down into the mid/upper
20s for much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Monday...

Chilly surface high pressure will build in from the west on
Wednesday, weakening on Thursday. Looking aloft, WSW flow will
prevail on both days, with strong mid-level height rises and
subsidence on Wednesday behind the departing shortwave over the
Canadian Maritimes. This pattern will bring sunny but cool weather
on Wednesday, with highs in the mid-40s to 50 and lows Wednesday
night in the mid-20s to 30. Thursday will be a bit milder with highs
in the lower-to-mid-50s, ahead of a dry cold front that moves
through in the evening. This cold front will be on the leading edge
of a second stronger Arctic high which will move from the Northern
Plains to the Upper MS and OH Valleys, reaching the northern Mid-
Atlantic and New England on Friday and building down the Eastern
Seaboard. Forecast lows Thursday night range from mid-20s far north
to mid-30s far south, with skies becoming overcast in advance of the
next system.

Meanwhile a shortwave will move from the Southern Plains into the
Mid-Atlantic on Thursday and Friday, spreading moisture into central
NC that overruns the cold high pressure wedge. At the surface,
models continue to depict a coastal low that moves NE from the
northern Gulf Coast early Friday to just off the coast of the
Carolinas on Friday night. As a result, precipitation is likely to
spread across the Carolinas sometime on Friday and Saturday, but
confidence in timing and amounts is still low. The overall trend in
guidance over the last day has been toward a weaker more suppressed
system and thus drier, with GFS/ECMWF deterministic and ensemble
guidance (along with WPC) now depicting more like 0.25-0.75" of QPF,
highest SE. The 12z ECMWF and many of its ensemble members also want
to spread mid-level WAA driven precipitation across the area as
early as early Friday morning, while the GFS and the vast majority
of its ensemble members hold off until late afternoon and evening.
The ECMWF also wraps up a deeper coastal low compared to the GFS.
Furthermore, the ECMWF depicts a second stronger shortwave tracking
across the area that provides additional forcing for light
precipitation on Saturday, while the GFS and CMC dry us out by then.
The highest confidence in precipitation continues to be on Friday
night when POPs are likely, with chance POPs during the day on both
Friday and Saturday when uncertainty is much greater. Also lowered
POPs overall from NBM due to the drier trend in guidance.

The main potential hazard with this event is the possibility of some
frozen precipitation over the northern Piedmont at the start, but
confidence is still very low on details. A lot will depend on how
early precipitation can get here on Friday, as an earlier start time
will allow for precipitation to interact with the cold high to the
north before it moves offshore. While the later start time of the
GFS would essentially mean an all rain event, the 12z ECMWF trended
earlier and has a slightly stronger high in place to our north. This
would likely result in a period of snow changing to ice over the
northern Piedmont on Friday morning and afternoon as temperatures
warm aloft. In fact, most 12z ECMWF ensemble members depict at least
a little bit of snow across the Triad. The limiting factor for this
threat is the progressive nature of the pattern, allowing for the
Northeast US high to quickly move east into the Atlantic, cutting
off our cold air source. So if there is any frozen precipitation, it
will eventually change over to plain rain everywhere by Friday
evening at the latest, and overall impacts are expected to be low.
Given the spread in guidance and that this is Day 5, the forecast is
certainly subject to change. Continue to stay tuned for the latest
updates. Temperature forecast confidence is low on Friday as well
due to the previously mentioned factors, but it certainly looks to
be a very chilly day, even if it is just cold rain. Forecast highs
are in the upper-30s to mid-40s. Temperatures should remain near
steady on Friday night in the mid-to-upper-30s.

This weekend will turn milder but still cooler than normal. Forecast
highs on Saturday are in the upper-40s to lower-50s, warming up to
lower-to-mid-50s on Sunday. Behind a dry cold frontal passage on
Sunday night, highs lower back to the mid-40s to lower-50s on
Monday. Lows this weekend will mostly be lower-to-mid-30s. Can`t
rule out some additional light precipitation from disturbances aloft
on Sunday and Monday, but confidence is too low at this time for any
mentionable POPs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 620 PM Monday...

24 hour TAF period: While the TAF period will begin with high
overcast ceilings and light wind out of the east, widespread rain
will move in from west to east between 06Z and 12Z, rapidly dropping
ceilings to IFR/LIFR. Did not have enough confidence to bring
western terminals down to LIFR ceilings, but there will be more
moisture to the east. As was mentioned in the previous discussion,
strong LLWS is possible late tonight into Tues morning, but guidance
is surprisingly split on its intensity. However, confidence is high
that there will be a steep inversion with a 30-60 degree veering
wind profile from the surface to 1500 feet and supports a favorable
pattern for LLWS. Rain will continue through the morning at all
terminals, then end from west to east with ceilings slowly rising
and scattering out. As low pressure moves up the coast, the wind
will back from the east to the northwest and pick up slightly
Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions will return to all sites Tuesday evening.
Another storm system will bring a risk for sub-VFR conditions Fri-
Sat as well as possibly bringing a wintry p-type concern to the
Triad terminals, although confidence is low at this time.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Green/AS