980
FXUS62 KRAH 070739
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
240 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will hold to our southeast through the rest of the weekend,
as weak high pressure settles over North Carolina and the Mid
Atlantic region. An Arctic cold front will move southeastward
through the area on Monday, while an upper level disturbance passes
overhead. Chilly high pressure will build in from the north Monday
night and Tuesday, then move to our southeast, allowing a southwest
flow and milder temperatures to return for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Sunday...

* Fog/stratus through the noon hour, then trending gradually to
  partly cloudy in the afternoon, but uncertainty is high.

* Not as chilly as yesterday, but still below normal.

* Clouds increase overnight, with a little light precip spreading
  into the Piedmont from the W late.

We`ll stay in a fast and flat WSW steering flow today, while at the
surface, weak high pressure analyzed over NC and the Mid Atlantic
holds in place before drifting offshore late. The most noteworthy
issue today is determining when the morning fog and stratus will
most likely burn off. The mid and upper levels will briefly dry out
Sun behind the departing weak mid level perturbation and upper jet
streak pushing ENE off the Mid Atlantic coast, which should allow
some insolation that might help burn off the fog/stratus from the
top. But with weak surface flow to inhibit horizontal mixing, and
with steady slow warming taking place just aloft (~925-900 mb)
helping to reinforce the surface-based stability, we could see low
clouds hanging on in most areas well into the afternoon. Even if
some of the area sees at least a few hours of partial sunshine prior
to sunset, it may not be enough to warm up temps much. As such,
forecast high temps today will be a few degrees below yesterday`s
expectations, mainly in the upper 40s to around 50, warmer than Sat
but still below seasonal normals.

Our attention then turns to a shortwave trough over WY/CO early this
morning that will shift through the Mid Miss Valley and across TN
toward W NC through tonight, propelled by energy diving into the
trough from the Upper Midwest. This trough will be associated with
an Arctic cold front that will move into the Mid South, Ohio Valley,
and central Appalachians overnight. High and mid level clouds are
expected to spread in from the west starting in the evening, and
we`ll see a trend toward weak mid level DPVA in our west late, but
there`s little opportunity for substantial moisture return into our
area through the lowest several thousand ft AGL. PW does inch up
across W NC late, but values are still near or just slightly above
normal, thus any mechanisms to force ascent will need to work on
what little moisture is attending the system. Will have mostly low
chance pops spreading into the W CWA late, and given the stubborn
pocket of drier low level air, any amounts initially should be very
light. Based on high res guidance, there is a high chance for ice in
the clouds, and if any of these hydrometeors can survive the layer
of drier air just off the surface (in a seeder-feeder process), we
may see a little light snow mixed in with light rain at the ground
toward morning. But overall, the expected surface wet bulb temps are
likely to be just above freezing through the night, favoring just
liquid for ptype through tonight. Lows across the CWA will be around
31-36. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...

* Chance of precipitation areawide Mon, likely mixing with then
  changing to a period of all snow before ending, especially across
  the N and W.

* Precip amounts should generally be under a quarter inch liquid
  equivalent, suggesting that any snow accumulation would be mostly
  under an inch given the initial rain/snow mix, but stay tuned.

Forcing for ascent focused in the mid and upper levels should
continue to ramp up early Mon as the aforementioned trough
approaches, but the incoming PW values will likely be just near
normal and falling further late in the day as the mid-upper levels
start to dry out. But forecast soundings show at least a few hours
in which the column is saturated or nearly so throughout the mixed
phase region aloft down to the surface, occurring in conjunction
with peak mid level DPVA from late morning through late afternoon W
to E. The incoming Arctic front is expected to push SSE through
central NC in the afternoon, so the coldest air may be chasing the
better moisture to some degree during the morning hours,
particularly if the higher terrain manages to delay the coldest and
most dense air for a few hours. But we`re still likely to see an
atypical temp trend with surface temps falling in the afternoon, and
confidence is increasing that we`ll see at least a couple of hours
of predominant light wet snow over all but the far S and SE CWA Mon
afternoon as the low levels cool, with accumulations potentially
limited by the initial rain/snow mix, the surface temps sitting near
or slightly above freezing for much of the day, and the modest PW
values. Model agreement is good in showing a thermal pattern
supporting patchy light rain chances at onset, followed by good
chance to likely pops for a light rain/snow mix, then changing to
mostly light snow before ending in the late afternoon or very early
evening, with no reasonable chance of any icing or freezing precip.
Total accumulation should range from a trace along and N of a line
from the Triad to near Goldsboro, ranging to one half to just under
one inch near the VA border. Expect highs in the upper 30s to mid
40s early, with readings falling through the 30s in the afternoon.
Cold lows Mon night in the mid teens to low 20s will lead to minimum
wind chills in the teens in most places overnight into Tue morning.
While any lingering precip on the ground will begin to dry out
overnight, we`ll be lacking a strong wind to aid in the drying
process, and there is a good chance in a flash freeze with areas of
black ice developing, which would cause travel concerns late Mon
night into early Tue. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM Saturday...

-Chilly, below average temperatures expected Mon-Tues.
-Light wintry mix possible Monday mainly across northern Piedmont.
-Another chance for precip late Thursday into Friday.

A cold front will move across the region on Monday, with cold air
chasing the departing precipitation through the day. Morning
temperatures will start near freezing along the VA border and in the
mid to upper 30s elsewhere. Rain will be the primary precipitation
type, but temperatures will gradually fall through the afternoon as
colder air arrives. This may allow for a rain/snow mix across
portions of the northern Piedmontgenerally from Rocky Mount to
Raleigh to Lexington. Before precipitation tapers off early Monday
evening, a brief changeover to light snow is possible near the VA
border. Any accumulations would be minor and mainly limited to
elevated surfaces given warm ground temperatures. All precipitation
will exit the region by Monday evening.
By Tuesday morning, surface high pressure will settle over the Mid-
Atlantic. A surge of overnight cold air will allow temperatures to
drop into the upper teens to low 20s. With light to calm winds, any
leftover moisture on roads may freeze, creating the potential for
black ice during the Tuesday morning commute.
High pressure will dominate Tuesday and Wednesday, supporting dry
weather. Highs both days will range from the low to mid-40s. Lows
will fall into the 20s Tuesday morning and into the mid to upper 30s
Wednesday morning.
Late in the week, another shortwave will move across the northern
US, bringing increasing precipitation chances. While guidance shows
some spread in the timing, track, and moisture availability, the
general consensus suggests precipitation could return by late
Thursday afternoonmainly across the NW Piedmontbefore a front
sweeps through the region on Friday. Conditions should dry out again
by Saturday morning. Behind the front, highs on Saturday will be
cool, in the upper 30s to low 40s, with another round of lows in the
upper teens to low 20s Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1250 AM Sunday...

* Dense fog this morning, followed by slowly improving aviation
  conditions today, and then another period of sub-VFR tonight.

With no airmass change in the past couple of days, and none
expected until Monday, dense fog has set in quickly across nearly
all of central NC and will persist perhaps as late as 15Z this
morning. With temps solidly below freezing across the Piedmont, many
areas are susceptible to some freezing fog.

Once the fog begins to lift, conditions should again be slow to
improve today, with some guidance suggesting some sub-VFR ceilings
at least temporarily lingering in the afternoon. Based on
persistence forecasts, will lean toward the slow improvement today
and indicate VFR potential after 18Z.  Light and variable or
southerly winds will prevail.

Once again with the same moist airmass in place tonight, fog is a
possibility, although high clouds streaming in from the SW ahead of
an approaching upper disturbance may inhibit widespread dense fog.

Outlook:  A strong upper disturbance crossing the region on Monday
will bring a mix of rain and snow, changing to snow in some northern
areas before ending Monday evening.  Chances of light snow are
higher from INT/GSO to RDU and RWI.  VFR conditions will then
persist through much of early to middle of next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for NCZ007>011-
021>028-041.
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for NCZ038>040-042-
043-073>078.
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST Sunday for NCZ083>086-088-
089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...BLS