104
FXUS62 KRAH 080734 RRA
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
230 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An Arctic cold front will move southeastward through the area on
Monday, while an upper level disturbance passes overhead. Chilly
high pressure will build in from the north Monday night and Tuesday,
then move to our southeast, allowing a southwest flow and milder
temperatures to return for Wednesday and Thursday.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

* No changes are planned to current headlines. A Winter Weather
  Advisory remains in effect from 7am Monday through 12pm Tuesday
  for portions of the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain
  of central NC.

* Up to an inch of snow accumulation expected, with as much 2 inches
  possible near the VA border.

* Very cold overnight lows in the teens to lower/mid 20s will allow
  leftover moisture on roadways and sidewalks to freeze, resulting
  in slippery and hazardous travel tonight through late morning/mid
  day Tuesday.


Earlier clearing has led to the development of areas of dense fog,
with gradual improvement expected from west to east as moisture and
cloud cover increases ahead of the system.

While most of the radar returns will be virga, weak ascent from PVA
and jet-induced lift may produce non-measurable sprinkles or very
light precipitation across the far northern Piedmont through
daybreak. With sub-freezing sfc temperatures, a brief
period/fleeting light freezing rain is possible, though impacts
should be minimal.

An arctic cold front--currently over central TN-- will sweep SE
through the area this morning, followed by a trailing shortwave
trough through the evening. Enhanced by a weak 850 wave, WAA and
frontogenesis will support a swath of light precip spreading into
the western Piedmont after daybreak, exiting the coastal plain this
evening. QPF will range from a few hundredths across the south to
~0.20" across the northeast.

Along and north of HWY 64, precip should begin as a rain or a rain-
snow mix, before rapid column cooling supports a change-over to all
snow before ending. Snowfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected
across the advisory area, highest across the northeastern Piedmont
and northern coastal plain where guidance indicates the best
potential for banding, and where snow ratios of 12:1 are possible.

South of 64, precip will fall as mostly rain with, briefly mixing
with or changing over to snow before ending. Little to no
accumulation is expected there.

Light snow/flurries will taper off across the northern/central
coastal plain between 00 to 03z. Continued strong CAA and decreasing
cloud cover will result in very cold temperatures Tuesday morning
with lows ranging from mid/upper teens north(snow ground cover) to
lower/mid 20s south. Any remaining snow or moisture on area roads
and sidewalks will freeze, producing hazardous travel overnight and
into Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Monday. . .

* Areas of black ice possible Tuesday morning

Arctic high pressure over the region will make for a cold start to
our Tue. Lingering wet/snowy roads from the Mon system will likely
mean areas of patchy black ice will be possible into the mid/late
morning hours. Mostly sunny skies should prevail for much of the day
under light winds. Highs will be well below normal in the upper 30s
over the far north, to lower 40s elsewhere.

High pressure will shift east Tue night and winds may shift slightly
from the southwest, but remain light. Lows will be cold again in the
middle 20s to around 30 degrees.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

* Gusty winds Wed with winds up to 30 mph possible

* Precipitation chances somewhat limited with a few moisture starved
  frontal systems.

* Well below normal temperatures favored for the late weekend

High pressure will shift offshore Wed. A fast-moving low pressure
system tracking across the Lower Great Lakes will create a tightened
pressure gradient across the region. Southwest winds could gust up
to 30 mph or so at times during the afternoon hours as guidance
depicts a strong low-level jet upwards of 50-kts. The pressure
gradient relaxes Wed night as a moisture starved cold front advances
through by early Thu. Precipitation chances appear very limited with
this front. Temperatures should moderate closer to average with
highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

Cool high pressure settles over the region Thu, with highs below
normal generally in the mid 40s to near 50.

Our next system looks to arrive sometime Fri/Fri night when a warm
front lifts north across the Carolinas. This will be ahead of
another potentially strong Arctic cold front that tracks through
sometime Sat-Sun, ushering in much below normal temperatures with
highs possibly in the upper 30s to low 40s and lows in the teens to
low 20s. For the warm front Fri, ensemble guidance is largely dry,
with moisture and lift somewhat lacking. However, if it were to
trend wetter, we could not rule out a rain/snow mix. Confidence in
that scenario, however, is not high at the moment. The Arctic front
Sat into Sun appears right now as a dry passage, with impacts mainly
centered around very cold temperatures as wind chills could be in
the lower teens Sun morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 815 PM Sunday...

A deck of high clouds is still streaming across the Sandhills and
Coastal Plain, but it is quickly exiting to the SE. And even despite
these high clouds, visibilities are already beginning to lower, with
MVFR to IFR being reported at many spots from RDU south and east.
Farther NW where clearing has occurred for longer, IFR to LIFR
ceilings and visibilities are already being observed. Satellite
imagery shows the next deck of mid-level clouds approaching from the
TN Valley, but there will be a window in the late evening and early
overnight hours when clearing will take place, and based on
virtually all available high-res guidance, the mid-level clouds
should initially be thin enough that some fog and very low stratus
are likely to occur in many areas. So added a TEMPO group for this
potential at all TAF sites, from 03z to 07z at INT and GSO and 2-4
hours later at the eastern terminals.

A rain/snow mix and associated IFR or MVFR ceilings and visibilities
will then spread in from west to east in the early morning around
INT and GSO, changing over to all snow by late morning before ending
by mid to late afternoon. Precipitation will likely start in the
late morning or early afternoon at the eastern terminals, initially
as a rain/snow mix at RDU and RWI before changing to snow in the
early to mid afternoon. IFR or LIFR visibilities are likely where
all snow occurs. At FAY, precipitation should start as rain before
possibly changing to a brief rain/snow mix at the end of the event.
Precipitation will diminish in coverage and intensity by late
afternoon with visibilities improving, but an upper disturbance may
result in some additional light snow in the east during the evening
hours.

Outlook: Dry weather will return area-wide by Monday night, but some
low stratus may linger for the first part of the night, with
initially IFR conditions improving to MVFR and eventually VFR as
skies clear. VFR weather is then forecast from Tuesday through
Friday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST Monday for NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Monday to noon EST Tuesday for
NCZ007>011-021>028-041>043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...Danco