044
FXUS62 KRAH 092107
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
405 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A polar front will sweep across the region early tonight. A vigorous
mid and upper-level trough and Arctic cold front will then move
across the region late Monday into Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 152 PM Sunday...

* Unseasonably mild today, with scattered afternoon-evening
  convection

* Much cooler, and blustery, tonight-Mon morning

Sfc obs this afternoon show this morning`s front has lifted well
into VA as swly flow and temperatures have soared into the mid 70s.
Further west, the polar cold front is just reaching the western
slopes of the southern Appalachians. Expect sswly gusts of 15 to 20
mph to continue ahead of the front through sunset.

Guidance continues to simulate the front reaching the Triad near 22-
23Z, the Triangle/Sandhills ~03Z, and the Coastal Plain ~04-06Z.
Ahead of the front, SPC mesoanalysis depicts ~250 J/kg of SBCAPE in
the western Piedmont this afternoon. As mid-level height falls
spread east across central NC, there will likely be enough forcing
for scattered convection to coincide with the frontal passage across
the western Piedmont. While we quickly stabilize with sun down,
there could be enough lingering instability in western/northern
Piedmont to produce isolated thunderstorms. If so, given how quickly
freezing levels will be dropping, this convection could produce
isolated pockets of small hail. This convection will largely
dissipate with loss of heating and transition up into VA through
early evening.  Beyond this initial convection, expect showers and
perhaps a few storms to blossom along and east of US-1 into the
overnight hours before transitioning to stratiform rain early Monday
morning. While bulk-layer shear will be ripping, think the late
timing, and consequently lack of instability, should limit the
severe threat for much of this area. Best chances for large hail and
perhaps an isolated stronger damaging wind gust would be for any
storms that develop along and east of I-95. However, think even
these areas might even be spared as HREF simulated helicity swaths
continue to largely be located east of us over the coastal areas and
offshore.

Any lingering rain should move east of the Coastal Plain by 12Z
Monday morning. Expect post-frontal nwly gusts of 25 to 35 mph at
times tonight lingering through midday Monday. The cold air will
take a bit to funnel in, and thus lows tonight will likely dip only
into the upper 30s (nw) to mid 40s (SE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...

A Freeze Warning is now in effect from 8 PM Monday to 9 AM Tuesday
for all of central NC. A quick period of light rain changing to snow
is also possible Monday evening/night, but any accumulations would
be very limited.

In the wake of Sunday night`s strong cold front, anomalously deep
mid/upper troughing will extend across the Eastern US, and a surface
high will move from the Southern Plains to the Gulf Coast. Despite
mostly sunny skies, CAA will bring in sharply colder air to central
NC on Monday with high temperatures ranging from mid-40s to mid-50s.
This is 10-20 degrees below normal for this time of year. Dew points
will also drop into the teens and 20s through the day. It will be
blustery with BUFKIT soundings from the GFS and NAM depicting W/NW
wind gusts of 20-30 mph will be possible at times.

An Arctic front will move through the region on Monday evening,
ushering in the true Arctic air mass. Given 1000-850 mb thicknesses
bottoming out in the 1270-1280 m range, a freeze is likely across
all of central NC. Temperatures are expected to drop into the mid-
20s to around 30, perhaps isolated lower-20s in the outlying areas
of the Piedmont. The warmest lows will be in urban parts of the
Triangle, eastern Sandhills, and central/southern Coastal Plain.
Clouds and light precipitation may keep us from getting quite as
cold as we normally would, but with statistical guidance showing
widespread lows in the 20s and NBM probabilities of dropping below
freezing being 80-100%, confidence is high enough that a Freeze
Warning has been issued for all of central NC. W/NW winds will
continue gusting to 20-30 mph on Monday night as 925 mb winds
increase and there will still be some mixing. So wind chills are
likely to drop into the mid-to-upper-teens in many areas.

Meanwhile, an intense vort max will swing across the region on
Monday evening/night. A minority of ensemble members from the GFS,
ECMWF, and CMC along with the deterministic runs depict potential
for a brief period of light snow or light rain changing to snow
during the late evening and early overnight hours. This threat is
mainly confined to areas along and north of US-64, which is where
the forecast has slight chance POPs (above NBM which was dry). High-
res guidance shows this signal as well, with the HREF having fairly
high probabilities (50-70%) of measurable precipitation across the
far north. Model soundings indicate deep saturation in the dendritic
growth zone, and surface temperatures will be dropping to the upper-
20s to lower-30s. Precipitation will be fighting dry air and strong
downsloping westerly flow, but the system is very dynamic. Given
light QPF and warm ground temperatures, any snow accumulations would
be limited to a dusting and mainly on elevated surfaces.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 PM Sunday...

Dry weather will prevail through at least Saturday under the
influence of high pressure and NW flow aloft as the mid/upper trough
moves into the Atlantic and ridging builds to our west. By Sunday,
both the GFS and ECMWF show a closed mid/upper low over the Central
US with a cold front approaching us from the west, potentially
bringing us our next chance of precipitation.

As for temperatures, cold blustery conditions will continue on
Tuesday with highs in the mid-to-upper-40s, along with westerly
winds that could again gust to 20-30 mph. The air mass will begin to
modify on Tuesday night and will rapidly do so on Wednesday as the
low-level flow turns SW with the surface high to our south extending
farther east the western Atlantic. Forecast lows Tuesday night are
in the lower-to-mid-30s, while forecast temperatures Wednesday are
only slightly below normal with highs in the upper-50s to lower-60s.
We will turn even milder late week with highs in the 60s everywhere
by Friday. Another Canadian high may drop a backdoor cold front into
central NC on Saturday, perhaps resulting in a slight cooldown,
before we warm back up on Sunday ahead of the next cold front.

Will have to watch fire weather concerns particularly Tuesday and
Wednesday as we stay breezy and RH values bottom out in the 25-35%
range. This will also depend on how much rain falls tonight.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 106 PM Sunday...

Periods of MVFR ceilings may persist for the next few hours, but
generally expecting cloud bases to lift to VFR by late this
afternoon.  Expect swly sfc flow of 15 to 25 kts to persist this
afternoon ahead of a strong polar cold front. The front will enter
the Triad around ~23Z and spread east through KRDU/KFAY around ~02Z
and KRWI ~04Z.  Some isolated convection may generate along the
front near KINT/KGSO this afternoon which could create brief sub-VFR
conditions and maybe isolated small hail. Otherwise, expect showers
and a few storms to blossom across eastern areas later this evening
and overnight before clearing east by Monday morning.

Expect post-frontal nwly gusts as high as 25 to 35 kts to stay up
much of the night and through the end of the 24 hr TAF period. Winds
will weaken a bit with time Monday afternoon and evening.

Outlook: A vigorous trough aloft and accompanying Arctic, surface
cold front will move across the region late Mon and Mon night, with
a renewed surge of nwly gustiness, widespread virga, and patches of
flight restrictions in light snow at the surface.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 8 PM Monday to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Luchetti/MWS