794
FXUS62 KRAH 021659
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1200 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An in-situ cold air damming ridge will extend across the Carolinas
and Virginia today, while coastal low pressure will rapidly
strengthen while tracking along the East Coast. Cold high pressure
will follow and migrate across the Southeast, while modifying,
through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM Tuesday...

As the main surface low moves off the VA/NC coast early this
afternoon and tracks northeast along the US coastline, rain will
taper from west to east. Most of central NC should be dry by late
afternoon. High pressure over Tennessee will gradually build in
tonight, bringing clearing skies and a continued northwest breeze
with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Highs today will remain in the
upper 40s to around 50. Overnight lows will fall into the midupper
20s across the northwest and generally the lower 30s elsewhere, with
most locations at or below freezing.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM Tuesday...

Quiet weather will continue on Wednesday as high pressure remains in
control of the Mid-Atlantic. Expect mostly sunny skies with light
and variable winds through the day. Highs will run about 10 degrees
below average, ranging from the mid to upper 40s, with a few low 50s
possible across the south. Overnight, calm winds and reduced cold
advection will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 20s to
around 30 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

* Highest chances for precipitation still Friday and Friday night,
  with lower confidence in chances Saturday through Monday.

Aloft, a s/w will track ewd from the Four Corners, across the srn
Plains and lwr/mid MS Valley on Thu/Thu night, then continue ewd
across the srn Appalachians and Carolinas on Fri. Meanwhile, the
longwave trough will remain over the Plains/Intermountain West
Thu/Thu night, as yet another s/w drops sewd from sw Canada to the
cntl Plains. This s/w may finally help the longwave trough progress
ewd across the cntl and ern CONUS Fri night through Sat night.
Central NC should be under the influence of wswly to swly flow
through at least Sat. A trailing s/w may move across the region Sun
or Mon, but model variability increases over the weekend into early
next week. At the surface, a dry cold front will move southward
across the area on Thu, with Arctic high pressure ridging swd into
the area as it moves ewd from the Midwest across the OH Valley and
into the Northeast US Thu night. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure
will develop over the NW Gulf Thu night, then eject newd across the
Southeast US and off the Carolina coast Fri/Fri night. The biggest
difference between the operational runs of the GFS and EC is the
strength and track of the Arctic high, which could impact
temperatures and perhaps p-types across the NW Piedmont. The low
should continue to move away from the area and out over the Atlantic
Sat/Sat night, with high pressure moving across the region in its
wake. The next low pressure system should develop over the cntl
Plains/mid-MS Valley Sat or Sat night, tracking across the region
Sun or Mon, though timing varies amongst the models.

Precipitation: Thu should generally be dry, with precipitation
expected to spread enewd across the area Thu night/Fri morning,
lingering through Fri night. While the operational EC and GFS both
generally dry out by Sat night (GFS earlier than EC), there is still
enough spread in the ensembles to hold on to slight chance through
Sat night/Sun morning. Precipitation should largely be rain, however
there is a chance for some wintry precipitation to mix in at the
beginning and possibly the end of the event. For now, confidence and
impacts remain low. Additional precipitation is possible with the
trailing s/w either Sun or Mon, but given the significant difference
in timing, will keep chances below slight for now.

Temperatures: Thu should be the warmest day of the extended period,
with highs ranging from around 50 degrees across the north to mid
50s south/SE. Low confidence in temperatures Thu night through Fri
night, as they will depend on the strength and position of the
Arctic high, track and strength of the low, and the associated
precipitation. Highs will remain below normal Fri-Mon, lowest on
Fri. Lows should generally remain near to slightly below normal,
generally ranging from mid/upper 20s to low/mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 650 AM Tuesday...

A large shield of stratiform rain, moderate to heavy at times, and
mostly LIFR-IFR ceilings and IFR-MVFR visibility restrictions, will
taper off/move east and out of cntl NC this afternoon. Ceilings may
be slow to lift after the rain departs, amid a rain-moistened, cold
air damming airmass, at least until drier air and stronger nwly flow
overspreads cntl NC this evening. That nwly flow may also result in
a short period of gustiness, especially at INT and GSO. Skies will
then become clear overnight, as cold and dry high pressure builds in
from the west.

Outlook: Another storm system will bring a risk of flight
restrictions and rain, the latter of which may begin as a short
period of snow over the Piedmont, Fri-Sat.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...ca
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...MWS