799
FXUS62 KRAH 060711
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
210 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will hold to our southeast through the weekend, as weak high
pressure settles over North Carolina and the Mid Atlantic region. An
Arctic cold front will move southeastward through the area on
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 150 AM Saturday...

* Winter Weather Advisory for our NW continues until 8 AM this
  morning for the potential for isolated slippery spots on roads.

* Areas of fog will persist until mid to late morning.

* Continued chilly today.

The surface frontal zone has settled to our S and SE, with low
pressure having pushed well offshore E of NC, leaving weak high
pressure from NC up through the Mid Atlantic and widespread low
clouds with patchy fog. Another weak high analyzed over the lower
Miss Valley will slide E over the Southeast later today, and the
overall result will be continued neutral to stable low levels and
weak low level flow over our area. Farther aloft, we`ll stay in a
fast and flat WSW mid level flow pattern today, noted well on GOES
layer WV imagery with a plume of moisture from TX through NC,
keeping a stream of mid and high clouds overhead through the day.
The poor insolation from these high clouds and the presence of low
level stability and weak flow (to inhibit mixing, both vertically
and horizontally) will help hold in the low clouds for quite a while
today, at least through early to mid afternoon before some breaks of
milky sunshine appear. Models do agree that the right entrance
region of an upper level jet streak will pass over NC late today and
bring a brief uptick in upper divergence, so we could see the back
edge of light rain nudge slightly northward this afternoon. But
otherwise the moisture and lift aren`t sufficient today for anything
more than patchy light rain with low amounts in our extreme SE,
southeast of a line from Wadesboro to Goldsboro, mainly this
afternoon. Thicknesses 10-15 m below normal and limited sunshine
support highs only in the mid 40s to near 50. Expect lows tonight in
the mid 20s to low 30s, with partly cloudy skies, setting the stage
for a good chance of another round of locally dense fog late. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Saturday...

* Fair to partly cloudy and dry through at least the evening.

* Not as chilly as today, but still a bit below normal.

* Clouds increase overnight with a little light precip spreading in
  from the WSW.

We`ll stay in a fast and flat WSW steering flow for much of Sun,
while at the surface, weak high pressure over NC and the Mid
Atlantic holds in place before drifting offshore late. The mid and
upper levels will briefing dry out Sun behind the weak mid level
perturbation and upper jet streak pushing ENE off the Mid Atlantic
coast, so once the morning fog burns off by mid morning or so, we
should see a period of partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs in
the upper 40s to mid 50s, still slightly below normal. Our attention
then turns to a shortwave trough shifting through the Mid Miss
Valley into TN overnight, propelled in part by energy digging in
from the Upper Midwest. This trough will be associated with an
Arctic cold front that will move into the Ohio Valley and Mid South
overnight. We`ll again see another (weaker) upper jet entrance
region shift overhead with weak mid level DPVA, but there`s little
opportunity for moisture return into our area, leaving us with a
modest uptick in PW overnight, and any forcing mechanisms will need
to work on what little moisture is attending the system. Will carry
slight chances for very light rain late Sun night. Lows should be a
few degrees milder with the increase in clouds, in the upper 20s to
mid 30s. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Friday...

-Chilly, below average temperatures expected Sun-Tues.
-Precip chances increase overnight Sunday into Monday.
-Dry weather expected Tuesday through late week.

High pressure will shift off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday,
allowing a weak front to move across the region late Sunday night
into Monday. Moisture will be limited, but a few light showers are
possible. With temperatures in the mid to upper 30s as precip
arrives, a brief rain/snow mix is possible across the northern
Piedmont, potentially edging slightly farther south Monday morning
as colder, drier air begins to filter in behind the front.
Precipitation will taper off Monday evening, followed by a stronger
push of cool, dry air Monday night. Lows will fall into the upper
teens to lower 20s by early Tuesday. High pressure then dominates
Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing dry conditions with highs in the low
to mid 40s and lows in the 20s Tuesday and mainly 30s Wednesday.
A clipper system will track across the Great Lakes Wednesday and
exit off the New England coast Thursday. At this time, associated
precip is expected to remain north of central NC, keeping the area
dry through late week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1245 AM SATURDAY...

Low clouds have settled in with ceilings below 500ft and LIFR
across all of central NC.  These conditions will continue through
mid-morning, with some dense fog possible as well by 09Z, although
confidence in fog is a little low given the amount of high clouds
streaming overhead per satellite imagery. Have kept a TEMPO for
lowering vsbys in the 09-13Z time frame.

Models then suggest some slow lifting and scattering through the
afternoon hours, though with no airmass change, would not be
surprised if sub-VFR continues in the afternoon.  Fog and low clouds
look pretty likely again tonight, perhaps settling in as early as
04Z and continuing through Sunday morning.

Outlook:  A short-wave will induce light precipitation (likely
mostly rain, but perhaps a chance for some winter weather across the
north) on Monday. VFR conditions will then persist through much of
early to middle of next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST today for NCZ007>009-
021>025.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...BLS