857
FXUS62 KRAH 091922
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
222 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will migrate across the Southeast ahead of a
strong, clipper low pressure system that will swing across the Great
Lakes later tonight and Wednesday. A moisture-starved cold front
trailing the clipper low will move across NC Wednesday night.
Another area of high pressure will follow and build across the
Southeast Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Tuesday...

* Sub-freezing temperatures will allow any snow or moisture on area
  roads and sidewalks to freeze, producing hazardous travel through
  mid to late morning.

* Cold today with highs 15 to 20 degrees below normal

In the wake of exiting shortwave trough, a migratory Arctic high
pressure will weaken while building over the area today before
shifting offshore tonight.

Light snow/flurries have ended across the area, leaving behind
widespread low clouds early this morning. However, dry low-level air
advection from the north, combined with increasing subsidence aloft,
should lead to NE to SW clearing/partial clearing through mid to
late morning.

Across the area that received 1-2 inches of snow across the northern
Piedmont and northern coastal plain, morning lows in the lower to
mid 20s will support slick spots and patchy black ice, especially on
shaded secondary roads, bridges and overpasses. Temperatures rising
above freezing by late morning, combined with increasing solar
radiation, will reduce the risk of slippery conditions.

Temperatures will be unseasonably cold for early December, with
highs ranging from mid/upper 30s north to lower 40s south --about 15
to 20 degrees below normal. After the low stratus scatters out,
expect periods of broken/overcast cirrus and cirrostratus, some of
which may become orographically-enhanced, through tonight. Lows
tonight will fall into the 20s area-wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 221 PM Tuesday...

A potent mid-level short wave will dive southeast through the Ohio
Valley early Wednesday before pushing across the Southeast US
Wednesday evening.  While mid-level height falls will accompany this
feature, mid to upper flow should be relatively wly, and as such,
most moisture associated with the feature should ring out on the
western slopes of the southern Appalachians.

At the sfc, pre-frontal swly flow will pick up early to mid
Wednesday morning, allowing temperatures to rebound to near normal
(highs in the lower to mid 50s.

Forecast soundings from various models continue to depict the
potential for strong momentum transfer if we can mix deep enough.
Gusts of 30 to 35 mph may be possible late Wednesday morning through
sunset.  Otherwise, a dry cold front will pass through central NC
Wednesday night. Overnight lows will be a bit warmer though as winds
stay stirred behind the front and we only radiate down into the
upper 20s/lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Tuesday...

* Temperature roller coaster, below normal Thursday and Friday,
  moderating to near/above normal Friday night through Sunday, then
  falling back to below normal Sunday night through Tuesday.

* Highest chance (slight) for precipitation will be Saturday night
  into Sunday.

Aloft, a s/w traversing the base of the longwave trough will move
across the region on Thu, while the parent low tracks ewd across the
Northeast US/srn Quebec. In the wake of the s/w, the flow will
become gradually more zonal Thu night through Sat. A weak s/w
disturbance may track across the mid-Atlantic late Fri/Fri night.
The longwave trough will again amplify over the central CONUS
Sat/Sat night as a low tracks esewd across Ontario and a nrn stream
s/w tracks esewd from the nrn Rockies to the mid MS/OH Valley. As
the low continues its ewd progression toward the Northeast US, the
s/w will continue ewd across the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic on
Sun, then offshore Sun night. The longwave trough will linger over
the ern US on Mon, with another nrn stream s/w swinging through it
and across the region Mon night/Tue. At the surface, high pressure
will modify as it builds ewd across the region in the wake of the
front Thu and Fri. Meanwhile, a low pressure system will develop off
the central Rockies and move ewd across the Plains and into the mid
MS Valley Thu and Fri. As the low moves east across the region, a
warm front may lift across the area. A trailing, secondary low may
track ewd or newd across the region along the front late Sat/Sat
night, though the track and strength varies between the available
guidance. Regardless, as the low moves out, the attendant cold front
will quickly move across the area, with Arctic high pressure
building in behind it. The center of the high will track east from
the mid/upper MS Valley and across the OH Valley/Great Lakes Sun
night-Tue.

Precipitation: There is a non-zero chance of rain perhaps clipping
central NC counties along the VA border, but for now will keep the
forecast dry. The better chance for rain will be Sat night/Sun,
however chances are slight given the model variability, with a
chance the rain could split central NC entirely (GFS).

Temperatures: Highs mainly in the 40s on Thu, with lows mainly in
the mid to upper 20s. Some moderation could start Fri, with the
potential for highs to reach low/mid 50s across the south. Sat and
Sun will be the warmest days, with temps near to above normal.
Temperatures will drop in the wake of the cold front, with a return
to below normal for Sun night through Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 PM Tuesday...

Lingering MVFR ceilings over the wrn Piedmont this afternoon may
scatter, at least temporarily, to VFR late this afternoon and
evening. However, the associated moisture will likely remain trapped
beneath a strong subsidence inversion based in MVFR range and favor
a redevelopment or filling in of associated stratocumulus ceilings
Wed morning, in a zone of frontal lift parallel to the Appalachians
and across the Foothills and wrn Piedmont. That lift may be
augmented by an intense low-level jet that will overspread the
region Wed morning and favor the development of low-level wind shear
and/or strong mechanical turbulence. Momentum from that low-level
jet will increasingly mix to the surface and manifest as a strong
and gusty swly surface wind with heating/mixing Wed afternoon.

Outlook: VFR. Another episode of low-level wind shear will be
possible Fri night.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...MWS