890
FXUS62 KRAH 011914
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
314 PM EDT Sat Nov 01 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across NC through Sunday. A vigorous mid
and upper-level low will meanwhile approach from the west, then
induce coastal low pressure development as it pivots across and
offshore the Carolinas Sunday night and Monday. High pressure will
follow and build across the Southeast early to mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 PM Saturday...

* Frost Advisory in effect from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday

A mid/upr-level cyclone will dig from the Midwest this afternoon to
the Mid-South by 12Z Sun, during which time a couple of additional
shortwave perturbations will dig from the Plains to the wrn Gulf.
Downstream of these features and related trough, swly flow will
result across cntl NC. Within that swly flow regime, the ern extent
of mid/high-level clouds now mostly along and west of the srn
Appalachians will edge ewd across mainly the nw Piedmont tonight,
while clear or mainly so will persist across the remainder of cntl
NC.

At the surface, a ~1020 mb Pacific high centered this afternoon over
the wrn Carolinas will migrate newd to the Virginias by 12Z Sun,
with associated calm over cntl NC tonight.

Strong radiational cooling will result again tonight, given the
aforementioned calm and mainly clear, except periods of mainly thin,
15-25 thousand ft cloudiness over the nw Piedmont. As such, the
chilliest temperatures and associated potential for greatest
coverage of frost will be over the ne Piedmont, nrn Coastal Plain,
and wrn Sandhills. Flanking these areas, frost should be patchier in
coverage in both the climatologically milder ern Sandhills/srn
Coastal Plain and also over the nw Piedmont, the latter where the
aforementioned periods of mid and high-level clouds may hinder
otherwise excellent radiational cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 218 PM Saturday...

An upper low will branch off the northern
stream upper trough and dive into the TN Valley/Deep South early
Sunday before drifting to our southeast through Monday morning.

At the sfc, high pressure anchored just off the New Jersey coastline
early Sunday will shift further offshore inducing enely low-level
flow over central NC.  As we progress through the day, ely flux off
the Atlantic will increase low-level moisture transport into the
Carolinas. Increasing divergence aloft associated with the lifting
upper trough will enhance low-level convergence Sunday evening
through early Monday morning. As a result, a sfc wave/low will
likely develop somewhere along or just offshore the Carolina
coastline.  Ensembles and deterministic guidance has come into
better agreement that these features will promote light rain for
much of our area late Sunday night through mid morning Monday.

Any instability should primarily remain to our south and east.
However, a few CAMs this morning did simulate a few hundred J/kg of
MUCAPE along and east of the I-95 corridor. If realized, perhaps
some higher QPF showers could develop in this vicinity. Current
thinking as that these solutions are outliers, but a bit higher
totals (1+ inch) in this vicinity are not entirely out of the realm
of possibility. Otherwise, generally expect a few hundreds of an
inch in the NW to up to a half inch in the far east/southeast
through 12Z Monday morning.

Highs Sunday should reach the lower to mid 60s. Warmer overnight
lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 218 PM Saturday...

Any lingering rain early Monday morning will quickly dissipate as
the upper trough exits east of the area by late Monday. Behind the
exiting system, high pressure will build back in promoting dry
weather Tuesday/Wednesday. A moisture-starved cold front will then
accompany a passing mid-Atlantic short-wave promoting dry weather
Thursday through Saturday.

Temperature wise, generally expect lower to mid 60s for highs
through the extended period. Overnight lows will hover in the mid
40s most nights. However, good radiational cooling potential may
develop Tuesday night and again on Thursday night. As such, we could
see traditionally cooler locations dip into the mid to upper 30s
these nights.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

High pressure will migrate across NC and favor VFR conditions and
light and variable winds, to calm tonight, through the 18Z TAF
period.

Outlook: IFR conditions and rain --lowest and most prolonged at RDU,
FAY, and RWI-- will result with the passage of a vigorous mid/upr-
level low and the related development of a surface coastal low along
the NC coast late Sun through early Mon.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...MWS