438
FXUS62 KRAH 272312
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
610 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold high pressure will build in from the northwest and north
through Saturday, then track east off the New England coast Saturday
night. A cold front will sweep through the region Sunday, before
settling just to our southeast Sunday night. Low pressure will
develop along this front over the northern Gulf on Monday, then
track northeast over the Southeast states and Carolinas Monday night
through Tuesday. High pressure will then build in from the west on
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Thursday...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much colder and breezy today into tonight.

- Highs today in the 40s NW ranging into the lower 50s SE.

- Wind chill readings in the 30s this afternoon.

- Very cold tonight with widespread 20s for lows.

The cold front has shifted offshore with strong CAA behind the
front. Winds were 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph from the WNW and
temperatures were tumbling. It was currently clear with a few high
clouds evident. The theme of the day will be the cold breeze. A
secondary theme will be an increase in high clouds that will be
thick enough from time to time to dim the sunshine. Highs should
recover into the 45-55 range from NW to SE.

Then, once the upper disturbance passes mid to late day, look for
decreasing high clouds. Winds will become gusty again after the
climatological lull in winds around daybreak as mixing of stronger
winds aloft reach the surface around mid-morning. Gusts to 20-25 mph
will be common. Winds may become light around dusk, but another
increase in wind may arrive as another surface of drier air arrives
later today and early tonight. Otherwise, mainly clear tonight with
lows in the mid to upper 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 125 PM Thursday...

Cold and dry conditions will prevail on Friday and Saturday under
the influence of Arctic high pressure.

The mid/upper trough will lift NE into New England and SE Canada on
Friday and Friday night. Despite full sunshine, temperatures will be
even colder than Thursday under the continued influence of CAA
between the surface high approaching us from the Middle MS Valley
and a surface low slowly moving east over Quebec. With a tighter
pressure gradient than today and decent mixing, GFS and RAP BUFKIT
soundings indicate NW winds will gust up to 20-25 mph from mid-
morning into the afternoon. Actual high temperatures will only range
from lower-40s in the far north to upper-40s in the far south (11-16
degrees below normal), and wind chills will only reach the mid-30s
to lower-40s at best. The NW downsloping flow will also bring in
very dry air on Friday with dew points in the lower-to-mid-teens.

As the surface high moves east from the TN Valley to become centered
over WV/VA/NC, winds will diminish on Friday night and temperatures
will drop to the coldest of the season so far. Lows will mostly drop
to the mid-20s in urban areas and lower-20s in outlying spots,
potentially even some upper-teens although even statistical guidance
indicates this would be very isolated at best. For example even the
coldest ECM ensemble members have a low of 20F in the coldest spots.

Saturday will again be mostly sunny and cold with highs in the mid-
to-upper-40s, but with calmer winds as the surface high is directly
overhead. As a shortwave and associated surface low track NE from
the Southern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes, the surface high will
move offshore by Saturday evening. Cloud cover will also thicken on
Saturday evening/night as moisture increases ahead of the next
trough/front. Thus temperatures will be less cold than Friday night
but still below normal, with lows in the mid-20s to lower-30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 115 PM Thursday...

The surface low over the Great Lakes region will quickly eject off
into eastern Quebec by late Monday. The attached strong cold front
stretching down into the Gulf will move across the eastern US Sunday
afternoon and off the coast by Monday morning. Ahead of the frontal
passage, CAD is expect to be present before eroding as the front
pushes through the region. Temperatures will be largely  dependent
on the strength of the CAD but generally expect the NW Piedmont to
be in the mid/upper 40s with a sharp gradient where the rest of the
eastern Piedmont, Sandhills and Coastal Plain will be get up into
the upper 50s to mid 60s. Precip is expected to start Sunday morning
and clear out west to east overnight/early Monday morning. Model
agreement has become increasingly high as well as confidence in the
lull on Monday from the precip. However if the front gets hung up to
the south, a few spotty showers could linger Monday afternoon before
clearing the area.

As surface high over the Northeast influences the region for a short
time Monday, the next wave of low pressure over the Gulf will take a
Miller-A track and shift across the Southeast states and into the
Mid-Atlantic early Tuesday. However, temperatures are expected to be
too warm for any thing other than cold rain at this time. QPF storm
total amounts are expected to be around 1.0 to 1.25 which are much
greater than Sundays rainfall amounts (a few hundredths). The low
will shift offshore early Wednesday taking the cold rain with it.
Surface high pressure will once again filter into the region and all
precip is expected to be out of the region by Wednesday afternoon.
High pressure will influence the region through at least Friday.

Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s Mon/Tues with the
exception of the coastal plain region with highs in the mid to upper
50s perhaps a a few low 60s. Overnight lows will range from low 30s
NW to upper 30s/low 40s each night. As high pressure moves over the
region, temperatures will range from upper 40s to mid 50s Wed/Thurs
with lows in the low to mid 30s NW and mid/upper 30s SE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 610 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions are highly likely to persist across central NC over
the next 24 hours, with few to no clouds and no vsby restrictions.
Surface winds will be from the NW generally under 10 kts, except 10
to 15 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts from around 14z to around 20z
Sun. Winds at 800-1200 ft AGL will be around 20-25 kts from the NW
from 05z to 11z tonight, an abrupt change from the sub-10 kt NW
surface winds; while this speed change with height is a bit under
low level wind shear conditions, it will be monitored closely, and
may still induce light mechanical turbulence for small aircraft.

Looking beyond 00z Sat, VFR conditions are likely through at least
Sat evening, then the chance for rain and sub-VFR conditions
increases starting late Sat night or early Sun morning. The chance
for rain, strong/shifting winds with height, and adverse aviation
conditions will be highest late Mon through much of Tue. -GIH

&&

.Fire Weather /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- It will be highlighted in the Hazardous Weather Outlook that the
weather parameters are expected to support only minimal fire weather
concerns today and Friday.

- Relative humidities today will be low... dipping to 20 to 30
percent by mid-afternoon.

- Winds today will be WNW at 10-15 mph, with gusts up to 20-25 mph.

- The cold temperatures below 50 for most of the day will keep the
threat of adverse fire weather behavior low to modest today.

- Relative humidity recovery tonight will be slow and only to around
  60-70 percent by around daybreak Friday.

- NW winds will gust to 20-25 mph on Friday and min. relative
humidity values should again be in the 23-30 percent range, lowest
in the Sandhills and southern Piedmont.

- Bottom line... After coordination with surrounding WFO`s and the
NCFS, we will include mention of the breezy, dry conditions in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook with low Fire Weather concerns and no IFD
for now, due to marginal winds and cold temperatures.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Hartfield
FIRE WEATHER...Danco/Badgett