186
FXUS62 KRAH 040840
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
340 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will hold over the Southeast coast and eastern
Carolinas this morning. A dry cold front will push southward through
the region later today, settling just to our south as Arctic high
pressure noses in from the north. Low pressure developing over the
northern Gulf will track northeastward across the Southeast states
and Carolinas late tonight through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1240 PM Wednesday...

* Unseasonably cold with variable cloudiness through the overnight
  period.

A broad area of 1022mb high pressure leaking across the southern
Appalachians will continue to drift eastward throughout the day
before becoming increasingly diffuse by Thurs morning. Patches of
flat strato-cumulus clouds, visible on satellite imagery over the
western Piedmont into the Sandhills and Coastal Plain, will provide
locally greater coverage of partly to mostly cloudy skies through
the afternoon before gradually thinning late this evening into
tonight.

Light surface winds will become more south to southwesterly through
the afternoon and keep surface dew points fairly steady as moisture
north of the stalled occluded front to our south counteracts the
very dry air just above the PBL. Limited horizontal moisture
advection is expected overnight within the weak pressure gradient,
but relatively moist afternoon crossover temperatures and pockets of
heavily saturated soils from Tues rainfall, may result in patchy
fog. Widespread fog is not anticipated as waves of cirrus with
varying thickness shift over the region overnight and should provide
an unfavorable factor to an otherwise excellent radiational cooling
night for radiation fog. Lows tonight will settle in the mid 20s to
low 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 AM Thursday...

* Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight through
  midnight Saturday for portions of the northern Piedmont and
  northern Coastal Plain of central NC. Up to an inch of snow
  accumulation and a glaze of ice accumulation are expected.

* Snow, and sleet (likely mixed with rain) are possible south of the
  advisory area between midnight and 10 AM Friday, however the
  duration of non-liquid precipitation will be shorter and
  accumulations will be below advisory criteria before the
  transition to all rain occurs.

* A brief period of freezing drizzle could occur (mainly over the
  advisory area) as the precipitation moves out Friday
  aft/eve, but confidence in that occurrence is lower.

Overview: Aloft, a mid-level srn stream wave will track ewd across
nrn FL/GA and off the Southeast US coast Thu eve, while a nrn stream
s/w follows on its heels, tracking ewd across the srn Appalachians
and Carolinas Thu night/Fri and off the Carolina coast Fri night.
The H25 170 kt jet should stay north of the area, oriented generally
from W-E extending from the mid MS Valley to the DELMARVA and east.
At the surface, Arctic high pressure will move ewd from the OH
Valley to the Northeast US, ridging swd into the area through Thu
night. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure over the nrn Gulf will
begin tracking enewd into the Southeast US Thu night. The ridge will
likely hold over portions of central NC as the high shifts off the
New England coast and the deepening low tracks newd across the
Southeast US and along the Carolina coast on Fri. The low should
continue ewd out over the Atlantic Fri night, with high pressure
remaining over the area.

Temperatures: Thu night lows in the upper 20s north to mid/upper 30s
south expected. Fri highs will be well below normal, only reaching
the low/mid 30s north to low/mid 40s south and with a bit of a
breezy it may only feel like upper 20s to mid 30s across much of the
area.

Precipitation: Isentropic lift will increase Thu eve/night, quickly
saturating the mid levels, including the dendritic growth zone, by
midnight. As precipitation begins, initially rain in most places,
the lower levels will also saturate. Precipitation will continue
into the morning, then could begin moving out of the area from W-E
Fri afternoon or evening, end timing is still a bit uncertain.

Across the northern half of central NC (roughly along and north of
HWY 64): the temperatures should wetbulb to near/below 0C Thu night.
The thermal profile, with temperatures through the column at or
below 0C, should support a period of snow in the advisory area,
perhaps mixing with rain south of the advisory area, into Fri
morning. However, there is still some uncertainty wrt p-types from
early Fri morn into Fri aft. The biggest p-type question will be if,
when, and for how long some sleet or freezing rain may mix in,
depending on the strength/depth of the warm nose aloft, and/or if
there will be a transition to fzdz as dry air intrudes near/below
the dendritic growth zone. The accumulations of snow and ice will
hinge on these transitions and durations. For now expect a glaze of
ice accumulation and up to an inch of snow in the advisory area. If
the saturated layer below the dry air intrusion is deep enough and
surface temps remain below freezing, a transition to fzdz is
possible, which could result in some light ice accrual as the
precipitation ends.

Across the srn half/third of central NC: largely expect precip to be
rain, although cannot rule out a brief period of snow mixing in
farther north.

Friday night: The precipitation should be out, or be moving out of
the area Friday night, though some rain may linger across the
southeast into/through the night. Lows should range from mid/upr 20s
to low/mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 AM Thursday...

* Rain chances SE Sat, and continued chilly.

* Chilly, below-normal temperatures to persist into next week.

* Light precip chances late Sunday into Monday, with brief rain/snow
  mix possible.

Sat/Sat night: The frontal zone will hold SE of the area Sat, with
weak high pressure sitting over the Carolinas. As we`ll stay within
a fast WSW mid level flow, the potential remains that subtle and
hard-to-time perturbations will ride within this flow over SC and
S/E NC Sat/Sat night. There is some model agreement on the right
entrance region of the upper jet scraping across NC Sat afternoon,
with associated enhanced upper divergence resulting in a brief
northwestward bump in the NW edge of the precip shield toward the
Triangle area. But the overall forcing for ascent appears to be
modest and fleeting, with the bulk of the moisture in the mid and
upper levels, given the lack of opportunity for moisture return in
the low levels. As such, expect the chance for any rain to be
largely confined to areas SE of the Triangle, with light amounts
overall. Clouds will be abundant, especially over S and E sections,
so it will remain chilly, with highs Sat in the mid 40s to around
50, followed by lows mostly in the mid 30s. -GIH

Sun-Wed: A central to eastern U.S. mean upper trough (with 500 MB
heights ~2 S.D. below normal) and broad cyclonic flow will support a
continuation of chilly, below-normal temperatures through the
period, highlighted by a reinforcement of cold air behind a cold
frontal passage Monday.

Monday and Tuesday will be the coldest days, with highs in the lower
to mid 40s and lows Monday night dipping down into the lower to mid
20s, with some upper teens possible in the typically colder
locations.

Sunday should begin mostly dry across the area, with steadier rain
chances suppressed to the south along a stalled frontal zone
lingering across the SE US. However, the approach of the next
shortwave trough and aforementioned cold front may support a brief
period of light rain Sunday evening and into the day on Monday.
There is a low-end potential for the rain to briefly mix with or
change over to snow across the northern Piedmont and northern
coastal plain before ending, though little to no impacts are
expected at this time.

Dry conditions will follow Tuesday and Wednesday with a clipper
trough approaching from the west late in the period. -CBL

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1250 AM Thursday...

With the exception of patchy MVFR fog over S and E areas until
around 12z this morning, affecting RWI and perhaps FAY, VFR
conditions are likely to hold across central NC today through at
least mid evening (~03z Fri), but with increasing clouds. Weak high
pressure over the eastern Carolinas will push SE and yield to a dry
backdoor cold front that will drop S through the area later today,
resulting in a shift of surface winds from light/variable this
morning to light from the W or NW through mid afternoon, then
shifting to be from the NE under 8 kts behind the backdoor front
starting late today. Low pressure tracking NE from the N Gulf later
today will bring increasing and thickening mid clouds from the WSW
by afternoon, with slowly lowering bases. Clouds will become
overcast after 22z, lowering further but still VFR through 03z, then
there is a good chance for cigs to lower to MVFR at INT/GSO after
03z.

Looking beyond 06z Fri, precipitation will spread into W sections
including INT/GSO between 06z and 09z, before advancing over the
rest of central NC after 09z, lasting through much of Fri, with a
high chance of sustained sub-VFR conditions. This precipitation is
likely to be mostly light snow at INT/GSO and a rain/snow mix at RDU
at onset, with rain elsewhere. Precipitation will end W to E late
afternoon through the evening, perhaps as a little drizzle or
freezing drizzle, but sub-VFR conditions are likely to hold through
Sat morning. Rain chances producing a period of sub-VFR conditions
will continue at FAY Sat through Mon, with the highest chance late
Sun into early Mon. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...AS
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...Hartfield/CBL
AVIATION...Hartfield