904
FXUS62 KRAH 221126
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
626 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will lift north of central NC this morning. This
will be followed by a cold front that will push south through
central North Carolina Saturday afternoon and evening. Behind the
front, high pressure will build in from the north Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 156 AM Saturday...

The warm front continues to slowly creep northward into the central
Piedmont/Coastal Plain this morning.  Areas north of the front
continue to see obs with reduced visibilities from fog. Latest
guidance suggests the front should clear the NC/VA border through
sunrise this morning. As such, expecting the fog to largely clear
from south to north the next several hours. Will monitor
observational trends, but the Dense Fog Advisory will likely be
cleared earlier than previously thought.

Aloft, a few weak vorticity perturbations are generating light rain
to our north in VA, and along the NC/SC border this morning. Further
southwest, a bit steadier rain is moving over the north-central
Piedmont of SC. Expect some of this activity to advect east across
the NC/SC border through a bit after sunrise, but generally diminish
with eastward extend this morning.  By mid-morning, swly sfc flow
will pick up a bit with gusts up to 20 mph at times (highest south
and east of Raleigh). High temps will warm into the mid to upper 70s
this afternoon with partial clearing likely.

The main upper short-wave expected to pass over us later today is
currently sliding into the Ohio Valley.  This feature, and
associated weak mid-level height falls will generate isolated to
scattered pre-frontal showers and storms for portions of our area
today.  Latest CAMs have backed off on coverage some, but best
chances still appear across the northern Piedmont/Coastal Plain mid-
afternoon and translating south across the Sandhills/southern
Coastal Plain late afternoon/early evening. Dew points will reach
the lower to mid 60s across the NC/SC border, which should promote
some instability and probably best storm chances in that vicinity.
Shear will be potent, and could lead to some organization. However,
lapse rates aren`t overly impressive and as such think any severe
threat would be low at this point.

Any lingering convection should move south of our area by early
tonight. Wnwly flow will usher in dry air behind the passing cold
front tonight, but the colder air will lag a bit, promoting
overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 207 AM Saturday...

PWAT drops to 50 to 75% of normal under dry nwly flow on Sunday as
mid-level ridging moves into the southeast. Expect dry and cool
weather with highs in the mid to upper 60s Sunday afternoon.  Clear
and calm conditions with high pressure overhead Sunday night should
promote good radiational cooling potential. Expect lows to dip into
the mid to upper 30s area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 AM Saturday...

A surface high will move east and offshore the VA and Delmarva coast
on Monday, turning the low-level flow southeasterly and increasing
high temperatures by a couple degrees on average compared to Sunday,
in the lower-to-mid-60s. Clouds will increase on Monday night as the
flow aloft turns southwesterly ahead of the next shortwave trough
moving from the Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes.

A warm front will lift through the area on Tuesday with dew points
quickly increasing into the 50s and lower-60s and high temperatures
in the lower-60s to lower-70s. Isentropic upglide will result in
persisting cloud cover and a chance for light rain. Meanwhile a
surface low will move ENE from the Northern Plains to the Upper
Great Lakes and southern Canada from Tuesday through Thursday, with
the associated shortwave closing off into a mid/upper low during
this time. The 00z runs of the GFS and ECMWF have come into better
agreement compared to last night with the GFS trending toward the
more progressive solution, bringing the associated cold front
through central NC on Wednesday evening. The ECMWF still brings it
through earlier in the day. At this time the best chance of showers
is on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, when lows will only drop
into the 50s. Average rainfall amounts on Tuesday and Wednesday are
around half an inch in the ensemble means, though locally higher
amounts will be possible. Isolated storms also can`t be ruled out on
Wednesday and shear will be strong with 60-70 kts of mid-level flow.
However, instability looks pretty marginal (around 500 J/kg of CAPE
or less) which would limit the severe threat, especially if the
front comes through early in the day as the ECMWF has been
depicting. Wednesday`s temperatures will depend on the exact timing
of the front, but for now the forecast calls for highs increasing
further to upper-60s to mid-70s with lows Wednesday night in the 40s.

High pressure building in from the west will bring a return to dry,
mostly sunny, and cooler conditions on Thursday and Friday. Highs
will drop to the mid-50s to lower-60s on Thursday and lower-to-mid-
50s on Friday. Lows will get down to the lower-to-mid-30s by Friday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 619 AM Saturday...

12Z Update: All TAF sites have lifted to VFR this morning as the
warm front continues towards the NC/VA border. Latest guidance has
trended towards a period of MVFR/IFR ceilings/fog restrictions
especially along and east of I-95 ahead of tonight`s cold front
passage. Decided to introduce some restrictions from 03Z through the
end of 24 hr TAF period to account for this possibility at
KRWI/KFAY/KRDU.

TAF period: IFR TO LIFR stratus and fog will persist at
KINT/KGSO/KRDU/KRWI early this morning through near sunrise.
Ceilings and visbys should lift to VFR as sfc flow picks up  from
the sw ahead of a cold front after sunrise. We`ll see some partial
clearing this afternoon, which could trigger a few showers and
tstorms, with best chances at KRDU/KRWI/KFAY between ~20 and 00Z.
Dry post-frontal VFR conditions are then expected Saturday night
through Sunday morning.

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions are expected Sunday and Monday. Our next
chance for rain and sub-VFR conditions would be Tuesday through
Thursday as a frontal system approaches and moves across central NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Luchetti