727
FXUS62 KRAH 160001
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
701 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will weaken and modify over the Carolinas
through Wednesday. A warm front will lift north across the region on
Thursday. A cold front will sweep across the area late Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM Monday...

* Continued cold through tonight, with fair to clear skies.

A fast NW mid level flow will persist over the Mid Atlantic region
through tonight, in the wake of the departing deep trough pushing NE
over the Canadian Maritimes. A dry Arctic surface high will hold
over the central and eastern Carolinas through tonight, with gradual
modification. While it won`t be quite as frigid as last night as low
level thicknesses steadily rebound to 10-15 m below normal, given
excellent conditions for radiational cooling and the deep nearly
isothermal profile from the surface to ~700 mb, we should still see
much below normal lows in the upper teens to lower 20s, with light
winds. Thin cirrus clouds now over the Upper Midwest are on track to
dive through the Mid Atlantic region overnight, and based on the
wind profile, this moisture may be sufficient for a few hours of
orographic enhancement in the northern Piedmont of NC late tonight.
But overall, most high clouds should be fairly thin and unlikely to
significantly impact radiational cooling. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM Monday...

Aloft, weak transient ridging will progress ewd across the region
Tue/Tue night. At the surface, Arctic high pressure will gradually
shift ewd and offshore on Tue, with a lee trough setting up east of
the Appalachians Tue night. Cool, dry weather will prevail, with
sunny/clear skies through the evening. Cloud cover may increase from
the west Tue night/early Wed. After a chilly (upper teens to low
20s) start to the day, temperatures should rise into the mid/upper
40s on Tue. Lows Tue night mainly in the mid to upper 20s. With an
increasing pressure gradient Tue night, especially across the north,
wind chills my drop into the low 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 120 PM Monday...

* Widespread mixed character precipitation, stratiform rain and
  embedded showers, is expected Thursday night. Although no
  significant rainfall totals are expected.

* Strong winds and wind gusts possible ahead and especially behind
  cold frontal passage on Friday.

Forecast confidence remains medium-high in at least measurable
precipitation is expected across central NC, with highest confidence
towards the NC/VA border and lowest confidence towards the NC/SC
border. This storm system will be driven by an anomalously deep area
of low pressure, sub 990 mb, shifts across the Upper Great Lakes on
Thurs and lifts towards Quebec and Newfoundland/Labrador provinces
by Fri afternoon. Strengthening southwesterly flow ahead of the
approaching cold front will pump highly anomalous deep layer
moisture (0.75 to 1.25" PWAT values) into the area. Despite this
favorable aligning of ingredient, the synoptic forcing for ascent is
not particularly strong. Central NC will likely only be glanced by
the best DPVA as the core of the compact shortwave is forecast to
pivot across the Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast.
Main driver will likely be the interaction with the southern stream
jet and resultant strengthening upper divergence over the Carolinas.

This pattern is not particularly favorable for any significant
rainfall for our area, but a wetting rain of 0.5 to around 0.1
appears likely. Locally higher amounts of +0.75" will certainly be
possible, but probability of > 1" in 24hrs remains around or below
5%.

Extreme drying aloft and strong subsidence will quickly shift across
the southern Mid-Atlantic Fri which should quickly scour out cloud
cover and result in mostly clear skies by the early afternoon. A
lingering tight pressure gradient in the post-frontal regime
combined with excellent insolation should provide a favorable
pattern for strong downsloping winds of around 15 mph and frequent
gusts 20 to 30 mph (infrequent gusts could reach as high as around
35 mph, based on momentum transfer in point soundings from the grand-
ensemble).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 700 PM Monday...

Arctic high pressure will remain over the Carolinas and favor VFR
conditions and light surface winds, mainly sswly ones, through Tue.

Outlook: Flight restriction and rain will accompany a frontal system
across the region Thu-Thu night. Additionally, low-level wind shear
will be possible Wed morning.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/Blaes
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MWS