346
FXUS62 KRAH 180641
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
140 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered across the area will shift offshore today. A
modest frontal zone will drop into the region from the north late
tonight and then linger through Thursday. The front will lift north
as a warm front on Friday and then sweep southeast across the area
on Saturday and offshore on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 140 AM Tuesday...

* Moderating temperatures

* A weakening band of rain showers will overspread northern and
  central portions of central NC tonight into early Wednesday.

A positively tilted mid-level shortwave trough will move from the
Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic through early Wednesday. At the surface,
high pressure centered over the area this morning will shift east
and offshore by the afternoon. This will allow a warm front,
associated with a wavy frontal zone approaching from the west, to
skirt across northern portions of the forecast area late in the day
before lifting north into Virginia tonight.

The day will begin with mostly sunny skies. However, a strong zone
of low and mid-level warm moist air advection will lead to
increasing cloudiness during the afternoon and evening.

Forcing/lift from the clipper-like wave and associated weak trough
dynamics, as well as divergence aloft from a 90 kt upper level jet
streak will support an area/band of showers that will move into the
northern Piedmont around midnight. With only 100-200 J/kg of
elevated CAPE, model guidance agrees that the band of showers will
weaken considerably as it progresses SE. As a result, measurable
rain chances should remain largely confined to areas along and north
of Highway 64, with amounts generally 0.10" or less.

Southerly return flow will boost temperatures, allowing most
locations to moderate into the lower to mid 60s. Some modest SWLY
gustiness of 15 to 20 mph will develop mainly across the western
Piedmont during the afternoon. When combined with low RHs of 20 to
25%, adverse fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon.

Overnight lows will be mild, settling in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 AM Tuesday...

* Rain ends early Wednesday morning with very mild temperatures
  expected

Cannot rule out a lingering shower or two across the coastal plain
early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, the shower activity should
largely have dissipated as weak synoptic scale subsidence
overspreads the area in the wake of the departing shortwave trough.

Forecast soundings indicate varying degrees of multi-layer
cloudiness across the area, suggesting a mixture of clouds and suns
as the sfc front temporarily stalls and bisects the area before
finally sinking south into SC and GA Wednesday night. This front
will establish a modest NE-SW temperature gradient across the area
Wednesday afternoon, ranging from mid 60s NE to mid 70s across
central and southern portions.

Weak cool, dry air advection will ensue Wednesday as an extensive
veil of jet stream cirrus overspreads the area. Lows in the
mid/upper 40s north to lower 50s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1250 AM Tuesday...

* No hazardous impacts are expected.
* Mainly dry weather. The main chance of rain is from very late
  Friday night through Saturday night with light rainfall amountS of
  a tenth to a quarter of an inch.
* Above average temperatures expected through the period with
  temperatures much above average Thursday night, Friday and Friday
  night when temperatures will range 10 to 20 degrees above average.

A large and broad ridge of high pressure aloft will be centered
across the Gulf through Friday and then begin to flatten Friday
night. At the surface, a weak front extending from TN east in SC
early Thursday will lift north into the Virginias by Friday night
transitioning the low level flow from northeasterly on Thursday
morning to a warmer southerly flow Thursday night and Friday. The
pattern suggests a very limited chance of some spotty rain driven by
shallow warm advection across the western and northern Piedmont on
Friday as the front lifts north. While the forecast is currently
dry, this will need to be monitored and a introduction of low chance
PoPs might be needed. Highs on Thursday will range from the lower
60s near the VA border to the lower 70s near the SC border. Provided
the front lifts north into VA, highs on Friday will range from the
lower 70s near the VA border to the upper 70s near the SC border.
These highs are about 10 to 15 degrees above average. Lows on Friday
night will range in the 50s which is around 20 degrees above
average.

There is considerable uncertainty with forecast details for late
Friday night through Saturday night. Much of the uncertainty lies
with the evolution of an anomalously strong mid and upper closed low
that moves into southern CA and northern Mexico on Wednesday. A
portion of this system is forecast to track east and depending on
the exact track will modulate the amount of rain across the region
late Friday night through Saturday night. Ensembles continue to vary
with the system moving to our north across the mid Atlantic or
moving across the Carolinas. It appears the best rain chances across
central NC will occur on Saturday and Saturday night with light QPF
amounts, likely less than a quarter of an inch. Irregardless of the
track, the lingering stationary front just to our north is likely to
push southeast across the Carolinas on Saturday and offshore on
Sunday resulting in dryer and cooler conditions. Highs on Saturday
will likely range in the mid 60s to lower 70s with highs cooling
into the 60s for Sunday and Monday. -Blaes
&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1101 PM Monday...

06Z Update: Decided to add LLWS at KINT/KGSO starting around 00Z
Wednesday. KRDU may need to have it added at future TAF issuances,
but confidence wasn`t high enough to include with this TAF update.

VFR conditions with calm winds are expected overnight with perhaps
some passing high clouds especially at KFAY. Light sswly flow is
expected tomorrow with VFR conditions through the end of the TAF
period. A few gusts of up to 15 kts or so may be possible in the
afternoon, but flow should go light to calm by sundown Tuesday
evening.

A strengthening jet just above the sfc may induce low-level wind
shear at KINT/KGSO/KRDU after 00Z Tuesday into the overnight hours.
Will revisit for the 06Z TAF issuance, but LLWS may be needed at
these TAF sites at the next update.

Outlook: Light, probably VFR rain will be possible across far nrn NC
Tue night, followed by a chance of MVFR ceilings Thu morning, as a
frontal zone wavers over the region. Another frontal system will
bring a chance of showers and flight restrictions on Sat.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 140 AM Tuesday...

After collaboration with the NC Forest Service and surrounding NWS
forecast offices, an Increased Fire Danger Statement has been issued
for the northwest Piedmont and portions of the eastern and southern
Piedmont from 11 AM until 6 PM on Tuesday.

A portion of the previous discussion as of 1130 AM Monday follows...

The airmass will begin to modify in a developing return flow regime
by Tue, but NWP guidance are notoriously to fast with the degree of
moisture recovery. As such, minimum RH values will likely again be
critical and mostly between 20-25 percent Tue afternoon, during
which time swly winds will be strongest at 10-15 mph and most
frequently gusty to around 20 mph over the Piedmont.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...Luchetti/MWS
FIRE WEATHER...AS/MWS