482
FXUS62 KRAH 152011
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
311 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will hold over the Southeast ahead of a moisture-
starved cold front that will move across NC on Sunday. Pacific high
pressure will follow and build across and offshore the southern
Middle Atlantic through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 PM Saturday...

* Mild, unseasonably so at ~15-20 F above average, with high-level
  ceilings that may be orographically-enhanced Sun morning

Nwly mid/upr-level flow will prevail over cntl NC, between a sub-
tropical high over the wrn Gulf and a cyclone that will reform from
the NL/ern QC border this afternoon to the srn QC/ON border by 12Z
Sun.

At the surface, cntl NC will remain on the nrn periphery of a sub-
tropical high spanning from the Gulf to the swrn N. Atlantic and
downstream of a cold front that will move sewd and extend from the
DelMarVa and cntl VA wswwd into the TN and lwr MS Valleys.

Point forecast soundings indicate the surface will likely decouple
from an anomalously strong, ~50 kt low-level jet forecast to develop
in the lee of the Appalachians overnight. So while surface winds are
unlikely to be strong and gusty tonight, a steady sswly breeze will
persist. That breeze and the aforementioned periods of high-level
ceilings will favor well above average temperatures in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Saturday...

* Fire Weather Watch in effect for the northern Piedmont and
  northern Coastal Plain, with an Increased Fire Danger Statement in
  effect for the rest of central NC from 11 AM to 6 PM.

* Warm and gusty in the afternoon, dropping to near normal overnight
  after the passage of a dry cold front.

A dry cold front will move through the region Sunday afternoon. Both
ahead of and behind the front, gusty winds are expected. Gusts of 25
to 35 mph look likely, with occasional gusts up to 40 mph possible.
Higher gusts look to be most likely in the north and the east.
Behind the front, dewpoints should drop quickly into the 20s. This
could cause RH values in the 20s and potentially as low as the
teens. Thus, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the northern
Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain and an Increased Fire Danger
Statement has been issued for the rest of central North Carolina.
More information will follow in a Fire Weather discussion.

In terms of temperatures, southerly prefrontal winds as well as
post frontal downslope warming will allow temperatures to
maximize from the upper 60s to around 70 in the north to the
mid/upper 70s in the south. This should be up to 15 degrees
above normal. Lows overnight should drop into the mid 30s to
around 40 which is near normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 PM Saturday...

* Marginal fire concerns on Mon

* Weak system Tue/Wed across our north

* Late week frontal system brings a chance of rain

Behind the cold frontal passage, cool high pressure over the TN
valley will slide into central NC Mon night and Tue. Slightly below
normal temperatures are favored in the upper 50s N to low 60s S.
Lows Mon night to range from the low to mid 30s across central NC.
RH levels will be very dry in the upper teens to mid 20s Mon, but
wind gusts will range from 15-20 mph, keeping fire concerns marginal
at this point.

High pressure shifts offshore Tue/Tue night, with return flow taking
shape. A warm front will lift north Tue night as low pressure tracks
into the southern Mid-Atlantic region. This may favor some low-end
rain chances in our north and northeast zones. But the main energy
stays in VA such that rain amounts, if any, appear light.

We warm up well above normal Wed after the warm frontal passage with
mid 60s NE to mid 70s SW. Guidance suggests the front may slide back
south as a backdoor front Wed night/Thu, resulting in possible
lower highs in the low 60s to low 70s.

By late in the week, we are well in the warm sector under southwest
flow. Highs should be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Another frontal
system looks to approach late Fri into Sat as low pressure tracks
into the Great Lakes. This appears our best chance of rain in the
extended, but still plenty of uncertainty as some ensemble members
keep most of the energy to our north with a possible dry downslope
pattern. For now, will keep 20-40 percent rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 110 PM Saturday...

VFR. Swly winds will occasionally gust into the teens to around 20
kts through sunset, then diminish with nocturnal cooling and the
related development of a temperature inversion tonight. Meanwhile,
an anomalously strong low-level jet will develop in the lee of the
Appalachians and intensify overnight, yielding a high probability of
low-level wind shear - strongest at RDU/RWI/FAY. Daytime heating
will cause the nocturnal inversion to break between 13-15Z Sun, with
subsequent mixing and momentum transfer that will cause surface
winds to strengthen to near 15 kts, with gusts 25-30 kts. A band of
3500-5000 ft AGL based stratocumulus will accompany a moisture-
starved cold front across cntl NC early Sunday, with periods of
otherwise mid and high-level ceilings.

Outlook: Light, probably VFR rain will be possible along a frontal
zone that will waver invof NC Tue-Thu.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 230 PM Saturday

Wly surface winds will develop and strengthen with daytime heating
and mixing Sun morning, then shift to wnwly to nwly with the passage
of a moisture-starved cold front through early to mid-afternoon,
strongest across nrn and nern NC. Additionally, sharply drier air
behind the front will further dry, and adiabatically warm, amid
strong downslope flow through the afternoon, such that minimum RH
values in the upr teens to mid 20s percent will be likely, lowest
across nrn NC.

Based on these forecast fire weather parameters, and after
coordination with the NCFS and surrounding NWS forecast offices, a
Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the nrn Piedmont and nrn
Coastal Plain (roughly north of US-70), flanked to the south by an
Increased Fire Danger statement. Further coordination will take
place Sun morning to determine if and where an upgrade to a Red Flag
Warning may be warranted.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
afternoon for NCZ007>011-021>028-041-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...LH
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...MWS
FIRE WEATHER...MWS