716
FXUS62 KRAH 212331
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
630 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will linger tonight. This will be followed by a
cold front that will push south through central North Carolina Saturday
afternoon and evening. Behind the front, high pressure will build in
from the north Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Friday...

As of 18Z, the warm front is making very slow northward progress
across central NC, draped across the srn Piedmont and Sandhills.
South of the front, cigs will lift then scatter as temps increase
into the mid/upper 60s to low 70s. The overcast skies have also kept
temps down, especially over the nrn Coastal Plain where highs are
expected to top out in the upper 50s/near 60 degrees this afternoon.
Light rain is once again filling in across the Foothills and
northwest/northern Piedmont associated with a disturbance aloft. The
forecast remains challenging, as the warm front has been much slower
to lift across the area and the rain could hold together longer than
some of the hi-res guidance suggests. Cannot rule out light rain,
especially north of the warm front, through the rest of the
afternoon. At the latest, the warm front should make it north of the
area overnight as the surface low moves ewd across the mid-Atlantic.
There is still a chance for additional rain late tonight into early
Sat as WAA increases and the s/w aloft approaches from the WNW. Lows
tonight should generally range from mid 50s to around 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Friday...

Overview: Multiple shortwaves aloft will track ewd to sewd across
the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic/Carolinas Sat/Sat night. Meanwhile
at the surface, the low will continue ewd offshore Sat, with the
cold front slowly settling ese-sewd across the area Sat night.

Precipitation: There could be some lingering light rain with
embedded showers moving across the area Sat morning. With daytime
heating and as the s/w tracks across the area ahead of the cold
front Sat aft/eve, MLCAPE will increase to 300-800 J/Kg, while
effective shear values will generally be in the 20-40 kt range (bulk
shear still max around 60 kts briefly). Cannot rule out some thunder
with the showers that develop and move across the area Sat aft/eve,
with all of central NC in general thunder from the SPC. While some
isolated hail or strong gusts are possible should a strong storm
develop, the severe potential remains low. The weather should dry
out behind the cold front through Sat night.

Temperatures: Highs ranging from low 70s NE to upper 70s south are
expected on Sat, with dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s degrees.
Temperatures should steadily drop behind the front Sat night, with
lows bottoming out in the low/mid 40s north to low 50s south by Sun
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 PM Friday...

* Unsettled weather expected Tue through Wed night, but timing of
  highest rain chances is uncertain; no significant hazards expected.

* Likely dry and mild Sun/Mon; dry once again Thu/Fri but cooler.

Sun/Mon: The surface cold front should be settling to our S Sun,
with the mean mid level trough axis pushing off the East Coast as a
modestly amplified ridge builds in from the W. This places us within
general subsidence and rising heights aloft, favoring fair and dry
conditions. The incoming surface high from the W is continental in
nature, yielding slightly above normal thicknesses over central NC
as it builds in, its center tracking from AR/MO Sun morning to the
Mid Atlantic Mon morning before pushing off the Mid Atlantic coast
Mon evening/night. As such, temps should be mild but not
significantly deviated from normal, with highs generally in the 60s
to near 70 and lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Tue-Wed night: While the timing details remain murky, it`s expected
that this period will be somewhat active, but likely not
particularly hazardous. The surface high moving out over the NW
Atlantic will put NC in a return flow pattern, with falling heights
aloft as the mid level ridge flattens and pushes off the Southeast
coast in response to a digging trough over the Dakotas and Upper
Midwest. The primary model differences appear to be with the
strength/amplitude of this Midwest trough, which in part will drive
its progression and that of the corresponding surface cold front.
The models with a stronger mid level trough/low are slower with the
cold front passage through central NC, doing so late Wed night or
early Thu morning, while the models with a weaker and more
progressive trough have a faster fropa, on Wed. As the core
components of this trough, including a closed low off Baja
California and energy over the NE Pacific, are over somewhat data-
sparse regions, we can`t identify a clear preferred solution at this
time, so will retain above-climo pops through this period, focusing
the better pops late Tue night and again Wed evening. It won`t be
raining this entire time, and instead we`re more likely to see
rounds of showers associated with passing jet streaks in the mean SW
flow ahead of the front. The thunder risk appears non-zero but low,
mostly ahead of the front and perhaps associated with an upper jet
streak entrance region, so will keep the mention of thunder as
isolated. Temps in this prefrontal WAA pattern are apt to be above
normal despite the general increase in clouds, although an increase
in moist upglide Tue as the surface high moves further offshore
might leave a cool stable pool in the NC Piedmont, reducing Tue high
temps there. This particular continental high will not contain very
low dewpoints, so the effects of any in situ upglide-induced CAD may
be muted. Will have around 60/low 60s for highs in the NW Tue, with
low 70s SE, followed by Wed highs mostly in the 70s.

Thu/Fri: As noted above, if the mid level trough and surface fropa
end up slower, we could see lingering clouds and pops Thanksgiving
Day morning, esp across the E and S. But overall we should trend
toward fair and dry conditions, with greater confidence in this on
Fri. Expect increasing sunshine Thanksgiving Day, although with the
incoming surface high of Canadian/Arctic origin, the CAA will keep
highs below normal, in the 50s to low 60s. Fri is likely to be even
cooler with highs of 50-57. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 630 PM Friday...

TAF period: IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to be widespread
across our region north of Fayetteville through the overnight. The
warm front will make little progress northward, leaving most of
central NC in the muck. Some patchy light rain is possible.
Conditions will improve into the MVFR then VFR categories between
15z and 18z Saturday.

Outlook: A cold front will bring a chance of showers, mainly south
and east of RDU between 20z and 23z Sat, otherwise a general trend
toward VFR will remain in place. Dry VFR conditions are expected
Saturday night through Monday night before a second cold front
brings a chance of showers and some MVFR conditions Tuesday through
Wednesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Badgett/Green