951
FXUS62 KRAH 250629
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
129 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be offshore of the SE states today and tonight. A
weak wedge or CAD front will develop over the Triad this afternoon
and linger tonight. A strong cold front will sweep across the region
Wednesday. Cold high pressure will follow the front for Thanksgiving
through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

High pressure is currently centered over
eastern Virginia and will slowly drift offshore this afternoon and
overnight. Meanwhile, low pressure is over Oklahoma and will move
east into the Ohio River Valley overnight. A few high clouds will
move into the area from the west this afternoon, but high
temperatures will still be above normal, reaching into the 60s in
all locations. While sky cover will become more widespread and
thicker overnight, conditions will remain dry. The cloud cover will
help keep low temperatures slightly warmer than last night, with
most locations falling into the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

As the surface high shifts offshore Tuesday morning return flow from
the coast will help initial a few spotty showers early morning,
especially across the eastern portions of the CWA. The parent
surface low centered over western TN early Tuesday will have a cold
front extending south and a warm front extending across the
Southeast. As the warm front lifts through the day Tuesday expect
temperatures to increase with strong southerly flow as well as PW
values (ranging from 1-1.5 early Tuesday morning). By late Tuesday
evening the warm front will be expected to lift across the area
bringing an increased chance for numerous showers and storms
overnight. SPC has our area only in general thunder at this time as
CAPE will be limited. A few stronger storms with higher wind gusts
could be possible. Temperatures on Tuesday will largely be dependent
on how quickly the rain moves in and if and CAD conditions develop
across the NW. For now, have highs 10-15 degrees above average with
temps ranging from the low to mid 60s across the NW and low to mid
70s in the SE. Overnight lows will range from mid 50s NW to around
60 in the SE but will also be dependent on the timing and strength
of the warm front lifting across the region.

By early Wednesday morning, expect showers and storms to be slowly
moving across the region as the cold front approaches. While the
model consensus is the frontal passage should exit the region by
late afternoon/ early evening, kept some lingering low end PoPs for
the Coastal Plain region through late evening. As the front passes
expect gusty winds of 20-25 mph and dew points to quickly crash
Wednesday night into 20-30s. Wednesdays temperatures will be the
warmest of the forecast period with highs in the low 70s north to
upper 70s south. The cold front will pass overnight and cool high
pressure will filter in with overnight temperatures in the mid to
upper 30s with southern areas in the low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 AM Tuesday...

* Marginal Fire Wx concerns Thurs and especially Fri.

* Low forecast confidence as we head into a potentially more active
  pattern Sun into early next week.

Forecast confidence remains high in a dry forecast for Thurs through
Sat as well-below normal PW values (less than 0.2") will be directed
across much of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. There will however be
a seasonably strong jet streak and PV anomaly rounding the base of a
broad trough through the day on Thurs which will likely only
contribute to periods multi-layered mid/high clouds through the
morning and early afternoon. This cloud coverage may limit greater
mixing potential and keep the prevailing northwest wind gusts below
25 mph and limit the otherwise favorable pattern for increased fire
behavior. The better day for fire concerns likely comes on Fri where
skies are mostly clear and will likely result in optimal momentum
transfer through the deepening mixed layer in a very dry Canadian
airmass already in place. Further drying from orthogonal downsloping
winds will likely drop dew points into the teens to single digits
through the afternoon. Northwest winds will likely be strongest in
the morning to early afternoon hours (20-25 kts), but should
gradually wane through the mid/late afternoon as surface high
pressure builds closer to the southern Appalachians and weakens the
pressure gradient.

Forecast confidence decreases rather rapidly Sun into next week as
model guidance is struggling with how to handle the evolution of a
mid/upper level low near the Four Corners Region Sun night into Mon,
and how it interacts with a broad northern stream trough pivoting
across eastern Canada and the Great Lakes Region. An ensemble
forecast approach suggests this may however be a more active period
as PW`s increase to greater than an inch (70th to 85th percentile)
and the southern Mid-Atlantic region located in a favorable position
underneath the right-entrance region of the strengthening 250mb jet
streak.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1255 AM Tuesday...

VFR in the south and east, with lowering CIGS (MVFR to IFR) and
higher chances of rain in the west and north late this morning into
tonight.

VFR conditions will prevail overnight across central NC with plenty
of cirrus through daybreak. MVFR ceilings should develop into the
Triad ahead of an approaching warm front this morning. Some light
rain is expected to develop in this region late morning and persist
into the afternoon. This will likely aid in the development of in-
situ CAD over the NW Piedmont and thus create a sharp gradient in
ceiling heights between the Triad and Triangle in the afternoon,
persisting into tonight.

To the south and east, VFR ceilings look likely through the
afternoon and evening, with the potential for some fleeting MVFR
ceilings around RDU. Additionally, light rain or virga may be
possible throughout the day, but confidence is not high enough to
include at any TAF sites. Outside of the Triad, southerly gusts up
to 20 kts look possible, diminishing around sunset.

Outlook: Some light rain/showers will continue to move eastward
across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing MVFR to
LIFR ceiling and visibility restrictions. VFR conditions should
return Wednesday afternoon through Friday with the passage of a
strong cold front.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TG/Badgett
NEAR TERM...TG
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...LH/Badgett