102
FXUS62 KRAH 111822
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
122 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold high pressure to our south will remain in control through
tonight. Another high pressure will build into the region from the
west Thursday and Friday bringing a warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 122 PM Tuesday...

Mainly clear with another sub-freezing cold night ahead.

Mainly sunny skies were observed this afternoon throughout the SE
and Mid-Atlantic states. Temperatures remained cold with readings in
the 40s over central NC. The arctic high pressure will be centered
to our south tonight, with westerly winds at 15-20 mph this
afternoon expected to become SW tonight at 10 mph. Dew/frost points
were in the teens with the exceptionally dry air mass.

Skies are expected to be mostly clear overall tonight. However,
there may be a period of high level cloudiness, as the latest hi-res
guidance suggests with a favorable wind profile for some cirrus
across the west and north between 1000 PM and 300 AM. Thus,
temperatures will rapidly cool this evening with relatively light
(10 mph or less) wind.

However, surface winds are forecast to increase a bit overnight
which will bring some mixing and reduce the radiational cooling. We
still expect lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1228 PM Tuesday...

* Mostly sunny, breezy and continued dry.

Surface high pressure will shift near the FL/GA border by Wed
morning and result in surface winds backing to a more southwesterly
wind direction. As a result, low-level thicknesses are expected to
rise roughly 60m compared to Mon evening (roughly 40m compared to
forecasted thicknesses for this evening) and favor high temperatures
10 to 15 degrees warmer compared to today. Additionally, a tight
pressure gradient will remain in place and contribute to sustained
winds of 15 mph and frequent gusts 20 to 25 mph, mainly late morning
through the afternoon. Relative humidity values should largely stay
above 30% as rapid warming at the surface will be offset by rising
dew points through peak heating. This should limit the need for any
additional fire weather headlines at this time.

Wind gusts are expected to rapidly abate around sunset. Light
stirring and/or pockets of calm winds and clear skies should result
in periodic radiational cooling Wed evening into the early overnight
hours. A streamer of upper-level moisture stretching from the
northern Plains into the Ohio Valley Wed evening will be directed
over the Mid-Atlantic overnight into Thurs. This moisture will
likely be orographically lifted and result in overcast skies
blossoming over the I-85 corridor after midnight. This should put a
lid on any additional radiational cooling potential across the
northern Piedmont, but locations in the southern Piedmont may still
be able to cool into the mid-30s by daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1228 PM Tuesday...

The forecast for the extended period continues to look dry. High
pressure will be over the southeastern United States, and while a
cold front could try to sneak across the VA-NC border Saturday,
there will be minimal moisture, and there is no chance of rain in
the forecast through at least Sunday. The first real hint of any
precipitation chances come from the European ensemble Sunday night,
but this appears to be a wet outlier, with the GFS ensemble,
deterministic GFS, and deterministic ECMWF all holding off until at
least Monday night if not Tuesday to bring any precipitation into
the area.

The fire weather concerns will be less than they are today or
tomorrow, but still not zero to end the work week. Minimum RH values
on Thursday and Friday will be in the upper 20s and 30s, and there
has been minimum rainfall recently. However, maximum wind gusts will
only be 15-20 mph on Thursday and only 10-15 mph on Friday. By the
weekend, minimum RH values only drop into the 40s.

High temperatures should return back to normal (low to mid 60s) by
Thursday, with nearly all locations rising into the 70s by Sunday.
The one caveat is whether cooler air could slip into northern
counties on Saturday with the back door cold front. Highs will drop
a couple degrees on Monday and Tuesday next week. After another
night in the 30s Thursday night, lows should return to the 40s by
Friday night, with some southeastern locations only falling into the
lower 50s Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions will dominate central NC terminals for the next 24
hours.

There is a good chance for low level wind shear conditions starting
after 04z as well, with winds just above the surface increasing to
30-35kt. The low level wind shear will slowly abate or exit to the
east later tonight.

Looking beyond 12z Wed, VFR conditions are likely to prevail at all
sites through Sat, under high pressure. SW winds will be 12-22kt
Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 945 PM Monday...

* An Increased Fire Danger Statement has been issued for today for
  central and eastern portions of NC.

Although recent rainfall has improved soil moisture, abnormally dry
conditions persist across the region. After coordination with the
NCFS, it has been determined that a combination of low relative
humidity levels of 25 to 30 percent and with frequent westerly gusts
of 20 to 30 mph will lead to elevated fire danger and an increased
risk of adverse fire behavior.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...CBL