867
FXUS62 KRAH 250820
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
320 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be offshore of the SE states today and tonight. A
weak wedge or CAD front will develop over the Triad this afternoon
and linger tonight. A strong cold front will sweep across the region
Wednesday. Cold high pressure will follow the front for Thanksgiving
through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Tuesday...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Light rain is expected to develop/overspread the NW Piedmont late
   late this morning into the afternoon. This expected rain and
   extensive cloud cover will likely lead to in-situ CAD over the
   NW Piedmont/Triad later this afternoon into tonight.

-  A fairly large gradient of sky cover and temperature will result.
   Conditions will range from cloudy/cool and rainy NW to partly
   sunny, breezy, warm in the south and east.

-  Some of the rain/showers will move east into most of central NC
   tonight. However, rainfall will be light (averaging 0.10 to 0.40).
   The higher totals will be in the NW, lower SE.

As light rain develops near an approaching warm front in the west, a
CAD surface boundary will develop over the NW Piedmont. It may very
well split the Triad according to the latest model consensus. To the
east and south, it will be considerably warmer with a S-SW breeze
with highs in the 70s.

Some rain and showers will continue tonight, but rainfall amounts
will be light. The in-situ CAD low stratus/fog/mist will persist in
the NW, but may shift into the NW Foothills in time tonight as the
cold front approaches. Temps remaining steady NW (50s) with 60s in
the SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Tuesday...

-KEY MESSAGES...

-  A strong cold front will drive through the region around mid-day
   into the afternoon Wednesday.

-  We are in general thunder (from SPC) and it appears only weak and
   generally isolated low topped thunderstorms are possible.

-  Warm weather until CAA arrives mainly Wednesday night behind
   cold front (70s).

-  Turning colder and breezy Wednesday night (30s).

Lingering CAD in the Piedmont will give way to mostly cloudy skies
with scattered showers. To the east, scattered showers and an
isolated storm can be expected as the cold front moves through. The
timing of the front should be around mid-day, earlier in the west
and later in the east. The showers will end as the front moves
through. The true CAA will arrive late or Wednesday night as another
mostly dry secondary front surges through.

Breezy SW winds 10-20 mph will occur, shifting to the NW late in the
day and at night. Highs will generally be in the 70s. Lows will dip
into the 30s to near 40 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 AM Tuesday...

* Marginal Fire Wx concerns Thurs and especially Fri.

* Low forecast confidence as we head into a potentially more active
  pattern Sun into early next week.

Forecast confidence remains high in a dry forecast for Thurs through
Sat as well-below normal PW values (less than 0.2") will be directed
across much of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. There will however be
a seasonably strong jet streak and PV anomaly rounding the base of a
broad trough through the day on Thurs which will likely only
contribute to periods multi-layered mid/high clouds through the
morning and early afternoon. This cloud coverage may limit greater
mixing potential and keep the prevailing northwest wind gusts below
25 mph and limit the otherwise favorable pattern for increased fire
behavior. The better day for fire concerns likely comes on Fri where
skies are mostly clear and will likely result in optimal momentum
transfer through the deepening mixed layer in a very dry Canadian
airmass already in place. Further drying from orthogonal downsloping
winds will likely drop dew points into the teens to single digits
through the afternoon. Northwest winds will likely be strongest in
the morning to early afternoon hours (20-25 kts), but should
gradually wane through the mid/late afternoon as surface high
pressure builds closer to the southern Appalachians and weakens the
pressure gradient.

Forecast confidence decreases rather rapidly Sun into next week as
model guidance is struggling with how to handle the evolution of a
mid/upper level low near the Four Corners Region Sun night into Mon,
and how it interacts with a broad northern stream trough pivoting
across eastern Canada and the Great Lakes Region. An ensemble
forecast approach suggests this may however be a more active period
as PW`s increase to greater than an inch (70th to 85th percentile)
and the southern Mid-Atlantic region located in a favorable position
underneath the right-entrance region of the strengthening 250mb jet
streak.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1255 AM Tuesday...

VFR in the south and east, with lowering CIGS (MVFR to IFR) and
higher chances of rain in the west and north late this morning into
tonight.

VFR conditions will prevail overnight across central NC with plenty
of cirrus through daybreak. MVFR ceilings should develop into the
Triad ahead of an approaching warm front this morning. Some light
rain is expected to develop in this region late morning and persist
into the afternoon. This will likely aid in the development of in-
situ CAD over the NW Piedmont and thus create a sharp gradient in
ceiling heights between the Triad and Triangle in the afternoon,
persisting into tonight.

To the south and east, VFR ceilings look likely through the
afternoon and evening, with the potential for some fleeting MVFR
ceilings around RDU. Additionally, light rain or virga may be
possible throughout the day, but confidence is not high enough to
include at any TAF sites. Outside of the Triad, southerly gusts up
to 20 kts look possible, diminishing around sunset.

Outlook: Some light rain/showers will continue to move eastward
across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing MVFR to
LIFR ceiling and visibility restrictions. VFR conditions should
return Wednesday afternoon through Friday with the passage of a
strong cold front.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TG/Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...LH/Badgett