868
FXUS62 KRAH 210908
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
408 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A warm front will move north into the region late tonight into
Friday. A cold front will then sweep across central NC Saturday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 353 AM Friday...

Weak mid-level impulses and isentropic upglide continue to generate
scattered light rain across central NC this morning. Mostly trace to
a few hundreds of an inch of rain have been observed thus far.
However, a band of steadier rain is quickly approaching the Triad
this morning and should likely squeeze out a bit more (a few
hundreds to maybe a few tenths) as it moves across the western to
central Piedmont and Coastal Plain through late this morning. Expect
a relative lull in rain through much of this afternoon and early
evening. By later tonight, weak mid-level impulses and increasing
WAA should trigger additional light rain primarily along the NC/VA
border early before filling in further south through sunrise
Saturday morning. A few tenths of an inch of rain are expected
Friday night through 12Z Saturday.

Dense fog has developed just outside the southwestern Piedmont down
in SC this morning. Latest guidance has backed off advecting this
dense fog up into our southern Piedmont (cloud cover is pretty
extensive here as well). As such, think the fog chances may be more
limited than previously expected but can`t fully rule it out.
Otherwise expect high temperatures in the lower 60s (NE) to lower
70s (SW). Overnight lows in the upper 50s to around 60 are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 354 AM Friday...

A potent short-wave and associated mid-level height falls will move
over central NC late Saturday afternoon and evening. Forcing from
this feature will trigger pre-frontal showers and storms across
central NC Saturday afternoon and evening.

Lingering light rain via weak mid-level impulses will likely be
ongoing along and east of US-1 early Saturday.  This initial band
will move east of central NC through mid to late morning. Dew points
in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected by afternoon, while
temperatures reach into the mid to upper 70s. If destabilization can
occur, models are hinting at upwards of 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE
developing across areas south and east of Raleigh Saturday
afternoon.  Given the expected upper forcing, there is a good chance
for a band of showers and scattered storms to slide down from VA and
move ese across central NC through Saturday evening.  Shear
parameters are pretty potent, with bulk-layer shear of ~60 kts
expected Saturday afternoon. While simulated hodographs are largely
straight amongst models, the latest HREF does indicate some weak
clustering of mid-level helicity swaths in the Sandhills/Coastal
Plain. All in all, think the overall severe potential is low, but if
any stronger storm can develop there is plenty of strong kinematics
to work with and thus can`t rule an isolated stronger/organized
storm (primary concern would be hail if anything at all).

Any lingering showers/storms should sweep south of our area by
Saturday night.  A sfc cold front will then sweep across the area
late Saturday night/early Sunday morning drying things out.
Overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM Friday...

Sunday will turn sunny and cooler with NW flow aloft and as surface
high pressure builds in from the west. High temperatures will range
from 60 in the far NE to upper-60s in the far SW which is still
slightly above normal. The cool surface high will be centered over
the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday night and with decent radiational cooling
lows should be in the mid-to-upper-30s in many areas. As the high
moves east and offshore on Monday, high temperatures will turn a
couple degrees warmer on average and lows Monday night will be in
the 40s. Clouds will increase on Monday night as the flow aloft
turns southwesterly ahead of the next shortwave trough moving across
the MS Valley.

A warm front will lift through the area on Tuesday, and isentropic
upglide will result in persisting cloud cover and a chance for light
rain. Meanwhile a deeper mid-level low/shortwave will move from the
Northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes and southern Canada from
Tuesday through Thursday. However, there continue to be significant
differences in the model guidance, with the 00z ECMWF depicting a
more progressive system that drags a cold front through central NC
early Wednesday, while the 00z GFS holds back the low and doesn`t
bring the cold frontal passage until early Thursday (Thanksgiving
Day). In either case, rainfall amounts look fairly light with
ensemble means around a tenth to quarter inch. And it doesn`t appear
rain will be much of an issue on Thanksgiving other than perhaps
some lingering light rain in the morning if the GFS and some of its
ensembles verify. Instability doesn`t look too impressive either,
especially with the timing of the cold frontal passage being early
either day in the two models, but this could change and the mid-
level flow certainly looks strong. Temperatures will also depend on
the timing of the front, but for now the forecast calls for highs
increasing to upper-60s to mid-70s by Wednesday, then dropping to
the mid-50s to lower-60s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 143 AM Thursday...

Largely VFR conditions continue across central NC early this
morning, although MVFR ceilings have arrived at KFAY recently.
Expect conditions to deteriorate at all TAF sites near sunrise as
deeper low-level moisture (and some light rain) move across central
NC through Friday afternoon. Fog and reduced visibilities are also
likely at KINT/KGSO and KRWI later this morning.  Any lingering sub-
VFR ceilings/fog should lift by Friday evening.  Additional light
rain showers will be possible Friday night.

Outlook: Additional rounds of light rain and low-level cloudiness
will be possible Friday night into Saturday. A front will sag into
central NC on Saturday, continuing the chance for unsettled weather
with perhaps a few thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. The front will
clear south of our area Sunday, with dry VFR weather returning early
next week.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TG
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Luchetti