119
FXUS62 KRAH 071840 RRA
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
141 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will hold to our southeast through the rest of the weekend,
as weak high pressure settles over North Carolina and the Mid
Atlantic region. An Arctic cold front will move southeastward
through the area on Monday, while an upper level disturbance passes
overhead. Chilly high pressure will build in from the north Monday
night and Tuesday, then move to our southeast, allowing a southwest
flow and milder temperatures to return for Wednesday and Thursday.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 110 PM Sunday...

* Temperatures remain below normal.

* Approaching rain, with potentially a few flakes of snow by
  morning.

Weak high pressure will continue to pass through the mid-Atlantic
through the day today ahead of an approaching trough and associated
cold front. Areas of dense fog this morning have improved, with most
airports reporting 7+ miles of visibility. Low stratus remains, but
appear to be dissipating some with daytime heating. Partly to mostly
cloudy skies look to remain through the afternoon, with increasing
clouds tonight ahead of the frontal passage. Precip chances look to
have the best chance of holding off until after sunrise on Monday.
However, a brief period of cold, light rain with a few snowflakes
mixed in may be possible in the Triad just before sunrise.

Temperatures this afternoon look to stay cooler than previously
forecast with the increased cloud cover, generally into the 40s,
with a few spots staying in the upper 30s. Lows tonight should dip
into the upper 20s to low 30s, with much of the region at or below
freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...

* Chance of precipitation areawide Mon, likely mixing with then
  changing to a period of all snow before ending, especially across
  the N and W.

* Precip amounts should generally be under a quarter inch liquid
  equivalent, suggesting that any snow accumulation would be mostly
  under an inch given the initial rain/snow mix, but stay tuned.

Forcing for ascent focused in the mid and upper levels should
continue to ramp up early Mon as the aforementioned trough
approaches, but the incoming PW values will likely be just near
normal and falling further late in the day as the mid-upper levels
start to dry out. But forecast soundings show at least a few hours
in which the column is saturated or nearly so throughout the mixed
phase region aloft down to the surface, occurring in conjunction
with peak mid level DPVA from late morning through late afternoon W
to E. The incoming Arctic front is expected to push SSE through
central NC in the afternoon, so the coldest air may be chasing the
better moisture to some degree during the morning hours,
particularly if the higher terrain manages to delay the coldest and
most dense air for a few hours. But we`re still likely to see an
atypical temp trend with surface temps falling in the afternoon, and
confidence is increasing that we`ll see at least a couple of hours
of predominant light wet snow over all but the far S and SE CWA Mon
afternoon as the low levels cool, with accumulations potentially
limited by the initial rain/snow mix, the surface temps sitting near
or slightly above freezing for much of the day, and the modest PW
values. Model agreement is good in showing a thermal pattern
supporting patchy light rain chances at onset, followed by good
chance to likely pops for a light rain/snow mix, then changing to
mostly light snow before ending in the late afternoon or very early
evening, with no reasonable chance of any icing or freezing precip.
Total accumulation should range from a trace along and N of a line
from the Triad to near Goldsboro, ranging to one half to just under
one inch near the VA border. Expect highs in the upper 30s to mid
40s early, with readings falling through the 30s in the afternoon.
Cold lows Mon night in the mid teens to low 20s will lead to minimum
wind chills in the teens in most places overnight into Tue morning.
While any lingering precip on the ground will begin to dry out
overnight, we`ll be lacking a strong wind to aid in the drying
process, and there is a good chance in a flash freeze with areas of
black ice developing, which would cause travel concerns late Mon
night into early Tue. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 PM Sunday...

* Continued chilly Tue/Tue night, then moderating Wed/Thu before
  dropping back well below normal by Sat/Sun.

* Precip chances return late Thursday night through Friday night
  associated with another cold front.

After Monday`s cold frontal passage, high pressure will build into
the region from the northwest on Tuesday before reaching south of
the region by Wednesday. This will allow for temperatures to remain
well below normal on Tuesday, but moderate to near normal on
Wednesday and Thursday as the high brings in warmer air from the
south. A trough and its associated cold front then looks to move
through the region late Thursday. With this front, light rain is
currently expected to begin late Thursday night and last through
Friday. Current model soundings support that a brief period of light
snow may be possible on the back end of the precipitation if
moisture is able to stick around long enough for the cold air to
reach central NC, but ice does not look to be supported. If any snow
is to fall, only light amounts currently look possible late Friday
night. Details will refined as we get closer to the event.
Additionally, a dry reinforcing cold front looks to move through the
region Saturday, dropping temperatures well below normal for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1152 AM Sunday...

Early morning fog has largely dissipated this morning, with some
IFR/LIFR ceilings persisting at RDU/RWI/FAY. They will gradually
lift to VFR this afternoon, before another round of IFR cigs and
MVFR vsbys return tonight. Big story will be precip potential on
Monday with a rain/snow mix forecast at INT/GSO around daybreak,
eventually changing to all snow by late morning. Rain/snow mix
possible at RDU as well, with a changeover to snow likely holding
off until just after the end of the TAF period. FAY is likely to
remain all rain through 18Z Monday, although a brief changeover
later in the day is possible. IFR or lower ceilings and vsbys
expected where snow occurs.

Outlook:  Conditions will rapidly improve from west to east during
the day Monday, with dry weather returning area-wide by Monday
night. VFR weather forecast through mid/late week thereafter.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Monday to noon EST Tuesday for
NCZ007>011-021>028-041>043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...LH
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...LH
AVIATION...Leins