856
FXUS62 KRAH 061855
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
155 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will hold to our southeast through the weekend, as weak high
pressure settles over North Carolina and the Mid Atlantic region. An
Arctic cold front will move southeastward through the area on
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 PM Saturday...

* Patchy light rain in the far southeast this afternoon, otherwise
  dry.

* Areas of dense fog likely tonight.

* Below normal temperatures expected.

A frontal system remains stalled off the NC coast, with the
associated low pressure well to our northeast. This has left weak
high pressure over the region. This should keep the majority of
central NC dry, with exception of the far southeast where patchy
light rain associated with the frontal boundary looks to be possible
over the next several hours. Temperatures this afternoon will stay
below normal for this time of year and are generally expected to
reach the low to mid 40s.

Additionally, in the overnight hours dense fog looks to be probable.
The HREF is showing the probability of visibilities less than 0.5
miles between about 50-70% for much of the region, with the higher
probabilities focused mostly in the southwest and to a lesser extent
the northeast regions of the CWA. Low temperatures overnight look to
dip at or below freezing everywhere, with mid/upper 20s in the
north. This means that anywhere fog may develop, freezing fog is
possible when temperatures are at and below freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM Saturday...

* Continued fog expected into the morning hours.

* Temperatures slightly warmer than today, but still below normal.

Weak high pressure will continue to pass through the mid-Atlantic
through the day on Sunday ahead of an approaching trough and
associated cold front. Through the morning hours, areas of
potentially dense fog will slowly dissipate with the daytime
heating. After fog dissipates, partly cloudy skies are expected
throughout the afternoon, with increasing cloudiness overnight as
the cold front approaches. Increased low level thicknesses will
support slightly warmer temperatures on Sunday. Thus, highs are
expected to reach the upper 40s to low 50s, with lows dipping in the
upper 20s to mid 30s. While most of the precipitation with the front
looks to hold off until after daybreak on Monday, there is a
possibility of some very light rain reaching western portions of the
region late Sunday night. Temperature profiles do not look conducive
of any wintry precipitation before sunrise on Monday at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM Saturday. . .

-Chilly, below average temperatures expected Mon-Tues.
-Light wintry mix possible Monday mainly across northern Piedmont.
-Another chance for precip late Thursday into Friday.

A cold front will move across the region on Monday, with cold air
chasing the departing precipitation through the day. Morning
temperatures will start near freezing along the VA border and in the
mid to upper 30s elsewhere. Rain will be the primary precipitation
type, but temperatures will gradually fall through the afternoon as
colder air arrives. This may allow for a rain/snow mix across
portions of the northern Piedmontgenerally from Rocky Mount to
Raleigh to Lexington. Before precipitation tapers off early Monday
evening, a brief changeover to light snow is possible near the VA
border. Any accumulations would be minor and mainly limited to
elevated surfaces given warm ground temperatures. All precipitation
will exit the region by Monday evening.
By Tuesday morning, surface high pressure will settle over the Mid-
Atlantic. A surge of overnight cold air will allow temperatures to
drop into the upper teens to low 20s. With light to calm winds, any
leftover moisture on roads may freeze, creating the potential for
black ice during the Tuesday morning commute.
High pressure will dominate Tuesday and Wednesday, supporting dry
weather. Highs both days will range from the low to mid-40s. Lows
will fall into the 20s Tuesday morning and into the mid to upper 30s
Wednesday morning.
Late in the week, another shortwave will move across the northern
US, bringing increasing precipitation chances. While guidance shows
some spread in the timing, track, and moisture availability, the
general consensus suggests precipitation could return by late
Thursday afternoonmainly across the NW Piedmontbefore a front
sweeps through the region on Friday. Conditions should dry out again
by Saturday morning. Behind the front, highs on Saturday will be
cool, in the upper 30s to low 40s, with another round of lows in the
upper teens to low 20s Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 PM SATURDAY...

Most sites are reporting IFR conditions with 600 to 700 ft ceilings
this afternoon. As a long string of low to mid clouds stream from
the southwest across the region expect cloud coverage to continue
through the afternoon and evening hours. While some lifting of
ceilings is expected, clearing of skies is not expected at this
time.  Models suggest any scattering to MVFR or VFR will be later
that afternoon and early evening. Flight improvements will be brief
as dense fog looks likely tonight with no airmass change and less
high clouds than this morning. Fog could develop as early as 02-04Z
and persist through the entire night and Sunday early Sunday
morning. VFR conditions are expected to return after the fog lifts
mid morning with BKN to SCT high clouds over the region.

Outlook:  A clipper system will induce light rain/snow mix that may
change to light snow, especially across northern areas Monday
afternoon. VFR conditions will then persist through much of early to
middle of next week. Another weather system will move into the
region Thursday afternoon beginning another round of sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...LH
SHORT TERM...LH
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CA/BLS