861
FXUS62 KRAH 030655
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
155 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Coastal low pressure will strengthen while tracking along or just
offshore the NC coast through early today. High pressure will follow
and build across the Southeast through mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Monday...

Rain to taper off around sunrise or by mid-morning (east).

Clearing skies through the day, with highs in the lower to mid 60s.

Breezy north winds becoming northwest at 10-20 mph.

Satellite and radar data indicate with rather compact mid/upper low
was located just to our SW, over western SC and northeast GA moving
east. Rain continued to develop and overspread most of our region,
mainly east of the Yadkin River or western Piedmont. Rainfall thus
far has been beneficial again over the eastern Piedmont, Sandhills,
and Coastal Plain where 0.50 to locally 1 inch has occurred.
Additional rainfall through 12z should be in the 0.25 to locally 0.5
inch range, heaviest in the east. The rain is expected to taper off
and end from the west between 09z and 13z, with a few lingering
showers possible in the south and east through late morning.
Otherwise, partly sunny skies west will become sunny today. Clearing
will spread east slowly as the upper low should exit by 18z. Breezy
N winds this morning will become NW at 10-20 mph, diminishing later
this afternoon.

Expect mainly clear and cool conditions tonight with lows in the 37-
42 range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM Monday...

Quiet weather with patchy frost in outlying areas Wednesday morning

High pressure will be situated over the southern Appalachians during
much of the day, gradually shift toward the Carolina coast Tuesday
night into early Wednesday. Nearly zonal flow will be present at mid-
levels, with just a few patchy high clouds streaming from west to
east.

Overall, generally sunny skies are expected under light winds.
Highs should be in the low to mid 60s. Good radiational cooling with
clear skies and light winds will favor some patchy frost Wednesday
morning with lows ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s. A few
spots in outlying areas could dip into the mid 30s.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 155 AM Monday...

* Breezy Wed with southwest winds gusting between 20 to 30 mph

* Continued uncertainty with Fri night/Sat and Sun night/Mon rain
  potential, but guidance has trended drier with the first system
  and wetter with the second system

Wednesday through Friday night: Aloft, a low will drift ever so
slowly esewd over Hudson Bay Wed-Fri, while a series of s/w
disturbances swinging around it move across the nrn and cntl CONUS.
The first s/w trough will gradually amplify as it tracks esewd
across the Great Lakes on Wed and across the Northeast/nrn mid-
Atlantic Wed night. A weak, transient ridge will move across the
region Thu night. Next, a pair of shortwaves will move ewd in tandem
across the nrn/cntl Plains and mid/upr MS Valley Thu/Thu night,
continuing ewd across the Great Lakes/OH Valley on Fri, and across
the mid-Atlantic/Northeast Fri night. At the surface, high pressure
will shift offshore, continuing to ridge westward across the
Southeast/Deep South. Meanwhile, low pressure will track ewd across
the Great Lakes and Northeast US Wed/Wed night, while the attendant
cold front pushes ewd, becoming more W-E oriented as it moves across
the region Wed night/Thu morning. In the wake of the front, Canadian
high pressure will track ewd across the Appalachians and over the
mid-Atlantic Thu/Thu night. The high will shift offshore on Fri as
another frontal system approaches from the west. Uncertainty remains
wrt if the front will make it into central NC, or stay to the north
Fri night/Sat, before it stalls/becomes quasi-stationary.

In advance of the generally dry front Wed night, a tightening
pressure gradient will take shape to allow for some gusty winds of
10-15 mph, gusting at times to 20 to 30 mph Wed aft. The low-level
winds of 25-30 kt peak in the late afternoon, so it is difficult to
say how much of these winds could mix to the surface. But point
soundings indicate gust potential of 25 to 30 mph.

While the guidance seems to be trending a bit drier with the system
Fri night/early Sat, there is still at least a slight chance for
some showers ahead of the front.


Saturday and Sunday: Aloft, the longwave trough will become
increasingly amplified over the weekend, as a s/w moves ewd from the
nrn Rockies to the East Coast and the low over Hudson Bay begins to
drop south with the help of one more s/w. At the surface, a strong
storm system will develop as a low interacts with the stalled
boundary over the Midwest Sat/Sat night. The low will deepen as it
lifts newd across the OH Valley and Northeast on Sun, with the
strong cold front surging ewd across the region. Arctic high
pressure will build in behind the front Sun night. This system has
trended wetter with the latest operational runs of the GFS and EC,
with surprisingly good agreement wrt the track of the low and timing
of the front as it moves across the area on Sun. The 00Z GFS has
some MLCAPE in the 800-1200 J/Kg range, with 0-6 bulk shear around
40 kts. Given the favorable diurnal timing, if the current forecast
were to pan out, showers and thunderstorms would be possible on Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1235 AM Monday...

An area of rain will continue to expand across eastern NC through
09z, then begin to taper off from the west by 12z. IFR to MVFR CIGS
will develop and accompany the rain, with lowest and most prolonged
restrictions likely at RWI, FAY, and RDU. The rain in the east along
with the lower CIGS will scatter to VFR, from west to east through
12z-15z. NW surface winds will also strengthen and become gusty
especially after 13z today.

Outlook: IFR-MVFR ceilings will be possible mainly over the Piedmont
Fri morning, in a regime of south flow and shallow lift along a
retreating warm front.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH/MWS
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH/AK
LONG TERM...10/AK
AVIATION...RAH/MWS