175
FXUS62 KRAH 011923
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
220 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold high pressure will migrate quickly across and offshore the
Middle Atlantic today and tonight, ahead of low pressure that will
develop and rapidly strengthen from the Southeast to the Middle
Atlantic coast on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Monday...

Dry conditions through the rest of day, with cloud coverage
gradually increasing. Highs will run about 10 degrees below normal,
topping out in the mid-40s north to low 50s south.

Surface high pressure will shift to the northeast this afternoon and
evening continuing to filter in cool dry air. Meanwhile across the
Southeast states, a frontal boundary will lift north late this
evening and bring rain chances beginning after midnight. Another
surface low over the TN valley will be inching east with an extra
push of moisture into our region. Cold rain is mainly expected
overnight into early Tuesday as temperatures will hover just above
freezing with overnight lows ranging from 33/34 across the north to
upper 30s across the south. Ground temperatures are expected to be
to warm for any freezing but commuters should be extra cautious
overnight/ early morning with wet roads. QPF amounts for tonight
through early Tuesday morning will range from 0.25 to 0.50 with
greater amounts across the south and western areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Monday...

A plume of moisture ahead of an approaching upper level trough will
move across the Carolinas early Tuesday, producing widespread rain
and even moderate rain at times. By early afternoon, it will begin
to move offshore, allowing drier air to spread in from the west. At
the surface, a weakening high over New England will filter in a
wedge of cool air over central NC Tuesday morning. At the same time,
a  coastal low will track up the Carolina coast and then race toward
Nova Scotia by early Wednesday. As this low pulls away, surface high
pressure will shift over the Mid-Atlantic region with colder and
drier air behind it.

Despite the cold air in place, the pattern is not supportive of
wintry weather in central NC this time, and all precipitation is
expected to fall as cold rain. Total rainfall amounts will range
from around 0.50 inch in the northwest Piedmont to near 0.85 inches
toward the Coastal Plain, where moisture and lift will be strongest.
Storm total amounts will be 0.50 in the NW to 1.25 across the SE for
the  entirety of the event.

Temperatures Tuesday morning will be in the mid to upper 30s
northwest to low/mid 40s southeast, making for a chilly start. As
the rain ends and winds turn northwest, the wedge will erode,
allowing temperatures to slowly climb into the mid upper 40s and
possibly reach the low 50s in in the south east. Clear and colder
night on Tuesday as temperatures will get down into the mid/upper
20s for much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM Monday...

Downstream of a positive tilt trough that will extend from Four
Corners and Southwest, swwd through a cyclone over the sern N.
Pacific, fast/quasi-zobnal flow will prevail across the Southeast
and Carolinas. To what degree and how quickly shortwave energy from
that positive tilt trough ejects ewd will have ramifications on
downstream vertical motion and contribution to cyclogenesis near the
coast of the Carolinas Fri-Sat. While forecast confidence is below
average in that regard, the trend in model guidance has been toward
generally more suppressed and drier solutions, driven mostly by a
plume of mid-level WAA and Fgen, and such that precipitation
centered around Fri-Fri night will very likely be much lighter than
this Tuesday`s system.

At the surface, high pressure will weaken while migrating across and
offshore the Southeast Wed-Thu, ahead of a dry cold front that will
lead an Arctic high across the Middle Atlantic and into the
Carolinas Thu night-early Fri, then quickly offshore by Fri night. A
wavy frontal zone draped from the nrn Gulf to just offshore the
Southeast coast may allow for at least a couple of episodes of, as
it appears at this time, weak cyclogenesis Fri-Sat.

The fast and progressive nature of the pattern described above will
favor a continuation of transitory and weakening Arctic highs as
they migrate across the Great Lakes and Middle Atlantic, then
offshore, which is not favorable for more than nuisance wintry
precipitation mostly at onset in cntl NC. Indeed, the aforementioned
mid-level WAA regime would support adequate lift when partial
thicknesses are initially supportive of snow if the precipitation
were to arrive early in the day Fri, but with subsequent warming
that would favor a relatively quick transition to rain. While there
could also be an intervening, short period of light freezing rain
over the nw Piedmont before surface temperatures rise above
freezing, that too would be short-lived, self-limiting in the
absence of a more favorably located and anchored surface high, and
low impact.

Forecast confidence is even lower for Sun, but with a general signal
for drier and less chilly conditions behind whatever transpires
from the mostly light precipitation Fri-Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM Monday...

Light winds and VFR conditions continue across central NC terminals.
Clouds will gradually thicken and lower as precipitation moves in
tonight. Widespread light to moderate rain is expected to spread
across all terminals in central NC with conditions rapidly
deteriorating through MVFR to IFR/LIFR from 06-11z from west to
east. Periods of moderate rainfall and lowest vsbys are most likely
at FAY and RWI, while also possible but to a lesser degree at RDU,
INT and GSO. Strong to very strong LLWS is possible late tonight
into Tues morning, but guidance is surprisingly split on its
intensity. However, confidence is high that there will be a steep
inversion with a 30-60 degree veering wind profile from the surface
to 1500 feet and supports a favorable pattern for LLWS.

Outlook: Widespread rainfall across the area will begin to clear
from west to east and bring improving aviation conditions Tues night
into Wed. Another storm system will bring a risk for sub-VFR
conditions Fri-Sat as well as may bring a wintry p-type concern to
the Triad terminals, although confidence is low at this time.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...AS