844
FXUS62 KRAH 102058
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
358 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A clipper low will swing across the Great Lakes today. A trailing
cold front, moisture-starved east of the Appalachians, will move
across central and eastern NC tonight. High pressure will follow and
build across the Southeast Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 PM Wednesday...

Downstream of a vigorous shortwave trough, a band of precipitation,
mostly virga as it overspreads cntl NC, will pivot ewd along the
leading edge of associated, strong DCVA and mid-level height falls
and Fgen this evening. An isolated sprinkle may also result over the
nw Piedmont, where cloud bases/ceilings are forecast to reach a
minimum of 4-6 thousand ft. It will otherwise be a seasonably chilly
night, with clearing behind the considerable evening cloudiness,
with lows in the upr 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 345 PM Wednesday...

* Brisk

Heights aloft will rise from the MS Valley to the South and Middle
Atlantic states behind an anomalously strong mid/upr-level cyclone
forecast to lift along the St. Lawrence Valley, where 500 mb
standardized negative height anomalies of 2-3 sigma are forecast.

Although the underlying, modified Arctic surface high will not be
particularly strong, 1022 mb this afternoon over the nrn Plains to
1018 mb by the time it reaches the lwr OH Valley at 00Z Fri, the
associated airmass will remain a cold one. The advection of that
cold air in the low-levels will result across cntl NC, with a nwly
surface wind that will gust to around 20 mph as the high and airmass
build east of the Appalachians. Despite abundant sunshine, high
temperatures will be well below average, about 10 F so, and in the
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 218 PM Wednesday...

Thursday night through Friday: Downstream of an anomalous mid-level
ridge over the Pacific northwest, central NC will be located under
the base of a northern stream trough. At the sfc, a high will anchor
over Florida on Friday promoting swly return flow. Weak lift
associated with increasing low-level WAA (and some divergence aloft)
will likely generate a shield of light precipitation across the Ohio
Valley late Thursday night that will spread sse through the TN
Valley and into the southern Appalachians through Friday afternoon.
Given the wnwly flow aloft, the anomalous moisture associated with
this system should largely ring out over the western slopes of the
Blue Ridge mountains and across the VA Piedmont.  There`s a chance
the NC/VA border locations could see a some snow flakes, but even
forecast soundings in that vicinity show dry sub-cloud layers and
little saturation in the dendritic growth zone. Will maintain NBM`s
slight chance for snow showers for a few hours Friday morning, but
not expecting any hazards with this system.

Locations along the SC/NC border may see some sunshine Friday, and
as such we could have a fairly steep temperature gradient Friday
afternoon with highs in the lower 40s (N) to mid 50s (S). Overnight
lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s are expected.


Saturday through Monday: After a relatively mild (highs in the lower
50s) and dry Saturday, an anomalous upper trough will eject out of
central Canada and dive southeast across the eastern US through
Monday evening. Associated cold air will spill down the east coast
with some of the coldest air of the season (850 mb temperatures will
fall into the 2nd percentile by Sunday night).  Highs on Sunday will
reach the lower 40s (N) to upper 40s (S). The CAA will really ramp
up Sunday night into Monday, with lows dropping into the mid to
upper teens Sunday night/Monday morning. Forecast soundings still
indicate good post-frontal mixing potential through sunrise Monday
morning. If the cold air does indeed make it over the mountain early
Monday morning, there could be a a brief period where some locations
may flirt with Cold Weather Advisory apparent temperatures. Will
continue to monitor as we get closer to this weekend, but regardless
Monday morning should be quite chilly.

With the frontal passage Sunday evening, there could be some chance
for precipitation primarily along and east of US-1. Depending on the
timing, some wintry mix may be possible. Overall though,
precipitation chances look limited through this period.

Tuesday through Wednesday: After another chilly night Monday into
Tuesday (lows into the upper teens/low 20s), return sswly flow will
develop pushing highs into the upper 40s Tuesday and lower 50s
Wednesday. Another short-wave may approach next Wednesday which
could be our next shot at any precipitation beyond this coming
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 PM Wednesday...

While VFR conditions are forecast through the 18Z TAF period, a band
of light precipitation (mostly virga) and ceilings as low as 4-7
thousand ft will overspread cntl NC this evening, ahead of a
vigorous mid/upr-level trough. Strong and gusty swly surface winds
will otherwise prevail with afternoon heating, then diminish after
sunset. They will do so while an unseasonably strong low-level jet
will remain overhead, with an associated risk of low-level wind
shear or mechanical turbulence tonight. Occasional nwly gustiness
will be possible on Thu, strongest and most likely from 14-17Z.

Outlook: A band of snow and flight restrictions will accompany a
warm front across VA Fri morning, the srn periphery of which may
clip INT and GSO with low VFR to MVFR ceilings and a period of light
snow or flurries in the several hours centered around 12Z Fri.
Strong and gusty nnwly surface winds will result behind an Arctic
cold front Sun afternoon and evening.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...MWS