996
FXUS62 KRAH 231322
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
822 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north today and Monday, then
move off the Mid Atlantic coast Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...

A stratus deck embedded within post-frontal nely flow continues to
blanket much of central NC this morning. Expect this to fade and
drift south of us through ~12 to 14Z. Otherwise, expect wnwly flow
aloft to usher in drier air as PWAT drops to ~50 to 70% of normal
this afternoon and evening. High temperatures should generally reach
the mid to upper 60s with light wnwly sfc winds. Sfc high pressure
will slide over the central Appalachians tonight promoting clear
skies and calm to light nnely winds overnight. Lows in the mid to
upper 30s are expected tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...

A mid-level ridge will move east and deamplify over the southeast on
Monday. This will promote generally wnwly to zonal flow over central
NC. PWAT will remain well below normal with persistent dry
conditions expected as the center of a strong sfc high moves over
the southern Chesapeake Bay area. Expect a bit chillier highs in the
lower to mid 60s Tuesday afternoon. Overnight lows will dip into the
lower to mid 30s with calm to light esely return flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...

A warm front will lift through the area on Tuesday with dew points
quickly increasing into the 50s and lower-60s and high temperatures
in the lower-60s far NW to mid-70s far SE. Isentropic upglide will
result in overcast skies and a chance for patchy light rain.
Meanwhile a shortwave trough and associated surface low will move
ENE from the Northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday and
Tuesday night. It will then track into southern Ontario and Quebec
on Wednesday and Thursday, with the associated shortwave closing off
into a mid/upper low during this time. The GFS and ECMWF are now in
much better agreement regarding the timing and track of this system,
bringing the associated cold front through central NC on Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Precipitation will turn more convective in
nature on Tuesday night as the air mass turns more moist and
unstable. The best chance of showers continues to be on Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. Lows will only drop into the mid-50s to
60. Some precipitation could linger on Wednesday afternoon,
particularly in the south and east, before ending on Wednesday night
behind the frontal passage. Forecast rainfall amounts on Tuesday and
Wednesday range from around half an inch in the far north to a tenth
to quarter inch in the SE on average, though locally higher amounts
will be possible. Despite marginal instability (around 500 J/kg of
CAPE or less), isolated storms can`t be ruled out on Tuesday night
and Wednesday as shear will be quite strong with 50-70 kts of mid-
level flow. Wednesday`s forecast highs range from upper-60s to mid-
70s, with lows Wednesday night in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

Canadian/Arctic high pressure building in from the west will bring a
return to dry and mostly sunny but much cooler conditions from
Thursday through Saturday. The coolest day looks to be Friday when
the high makes its closest approach. High temperatures will only be
in the upper-40s to lower-50s (7-12 degrees below normal) and lows
Friday night will drop into the mid-20s to 30. Thursday and Saturday
will be a few degrees milder on average but still cooler than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 611 AM Sunday...

12Z Update: Reduced visbys from fog persists at KINT/KGSO this
morning, while LIFR ceilings continue at KFAY. Expect these sub-VFR
conditions to persist through ~13 to 14Z, but they should quickly
lift to VFR through mid to late morning.  Dry and VFR conditions
will then persist through the rest of the 24 hr TAF period.

Post-frontal nely flow and associated stratus continues to move
south across central NC this morning. We continue to observe periods
of MVFR to LIFR ceilings at all TAF sites. Expect this sub-VFR cloud
deck to linger for a few more hours before exiting to our south
through about ~12 to 14Z.  High pressure and drier air will filter
in and promote clearing and VFR conditions through the remainder of
the 24 hour TAF period. Light wnwly sfc flow is expected later
today, going calm overnight.

Outlook: IFR-MVFR ceilings and patchy light rain will likely
overspread the Piedmont ahead of a retreating warm front Tue
morning. A chance of rain, increasingly convective in nature, and
also flight restrictions, are expected later Tue through Wed, as a
strong frontal system traverses the region.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ007>011-
021>024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Luchetti/MWS