550
FXUS62 KRAH 042009
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
309 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will push southward through the region later this
evening, settling just to our south as Arctic high pressure noses in
from the north. Low pressure developing over the northern Gulf will
track northeastward across the Southeast states and Carolinas late
tonight through Friday, before pushing offshore Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 308 PM Thursday...

* Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight through
  midnight Saturday for portions of the northern Piedmont and
  northern Coastal Plain of central NC. Up to an inch of snow
  accumulation and a glaze of ice accumulation are expected.

* Snow, and sleet (likely mixed with rain) are possible south of the
  advisory area between midnight and 10 AM Friday, however no
  accumulation is expected.

Our long-wave trough and associated moisture plume stemming from
western Texas east across the southeast is clearly evident on water
vapor imagery this afternoon. Mid to high level clouds continue to
stream over central NC this afternoon, while weak mid-level
vorticity continues to generate light to moderate rain over the Gulf
States and portions of GA and southern SC.

Further west, a more pronounced vort signature was evident rounding
the base of the upper trough over north Texas/central OK.  This
feature will swing east through the TN valley later tonight
coinciding with a strengthening upper jet and associated divergence
over the mid-Altantic/southeast.

At the sfc, latest obs centered the Arctic high over eastern Iowa.
This high is still expected to translate east over the Mid-Atlantic,
and be placed favorably for initial light wintry precipitation
(mostly in the climatologically favored north of I-85 area) before
weakening and progressing offshore Friday.

Lift associated with increasing WAA in the mid-levels will generate
a precipitation shield across the TN Valley that will quickly expand
northeast along the southern Appalachians/Foothills/Piedmont through
early Friday morning. Latest high-res guidance has trended a bit
further north wrt to areas with the best chance for light snow
accumulations.  Thickness and point soundings along the NC/VA border
are still supportive of good saturation in the dendritic growth zone
and favorable sub-freezing thermal profiles for a few hours just
before and after sunrise.  However, further south (including the
Triad area) latest RAP/NAM/HRRR soundings have trended away from
saturation in the dendritic growth zone and towards wavering thermal
profiles with perhaps some above freezing temperatures at various
layers/temporal periods.  As such, could easily see sleet pellets
and/or non-impactful spotty freezing rain during the optimal wintry
precipitation period (effectively cutting into snowfall accumulation
potential). The thermal profiles become even less supportive of
wintry precipitation with southward extent. As such, decided to not
expand the Winter Advisory south at this time. The best chances for
a 1 inch or greater snowfall appears to be in the northern areas of
Person/Granville/Vance/Warren (latest HREF/REFS concur)

Those in the Triangle may see some wintry hydrometers mix in with
cold rain during the morning commute, but the ground temps more
likely than not will remain above freezing. As such, do not expect
any wintry travel concerns in the Triangle.

The models continue to speed up the cessation of both the wintry
precip (which should arch northward into VA by ~13 to 14Z) and in
general cold rain across northern to central areas through ~16Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 308 PM Thursday...

As we progress through Friday early afternoon and evening, a sfc low
will develop just off the coastal Carolinas and drive further
offshore through Saturday morning. Lift associated with this feature
(along with continued divergence aloft within the exiting jetstreak)
will promote continued light rain primarily in the southern Coastal
Plain Friday evening. The NamNest continues to generate a short
period of freezing drizzle across northern areas as the cold air
wraps around the departing offshore low. However, forecast soundings
in general show a drying trend during this period. Additionally, the
low is pretty far offshore and thus not convinced we`ll have enough
cold air pull into our northern areas to generate precip/freezing
rain.  Regardless, even if it develops, it would not generate
hazardous conditions.

Highs on Friday will linger in the mid to upper 30s across the
north, to mid 40s across the south. Cold overnight lows in the mid
to upper 20s/lower to mid 30s are expected Friday night.


 A few models have hinted at some light freezing rain re-developing
across the NC/VA border Friday night, but think this will trend
drier with time.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 110 PM Thursday...

* Forecast trending drier and warmer with Sun night into Mon system.

* Bitter cold temperatures Tues morning.

A strong and elongated upper-level jet will be in place Sat morning
stretching from the southern Plains and across the Mid-Atlantic.
This jet will shift eastward throughout the day as the PV trough
drifts across the Mid-Atlantic and shunts the mid/upper level
moisture into the western Atlantic arcing back into the northern
Gulf. This process should shift the axis of more steady rain from
the eastern Piedmont and Carolina coast and out of the area through
the late evening and overnight period.

At the surface, the Carolinas will be between two fronts, one draped
across the northern Gulf states to northern FL, and a wavy Arctic
front in the Northeast and Great Lakes region. A pair of shortwaves
pivoting across the Great Lakes and the Mid-Mississippi Valley early
Sun afternoon is expected to interact with these fronts and result
in weak areas of low pressure rippling along them Sun afternoon into
early Mon morning. Although these features will work in tandem to
bring precipitation chances Sun night into Mon morning, central NC
may be split between these two systems and keep precipitation
chances and amounts relatively low. The mid-levels should still be
cold enough for ice-crystal formation, however, lack of saturation
above -8C and warming low-levels will keep all precipitation liquid
through Sun night into Mon ahead of the Arctic frontal passage Mon.

Forecast turns quieter and colder early next week as cold high
pressure on the backside of the Sun night/Mon system filters into
the area and PWAT values drop to well below normal. Tues morning
could be bitterly cold with the surface high centered directly over
the area. Lows in the low/mid 20s to upper teens Tues morning
certainly appear possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 110 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through 00z tonight with
aviation conditions deteriorating around midnight. A backdoor front
is expected to provide a wind shift and briefly gusty NE winds
around 12 to 15 kts. Lowering cloud bases towards low-VFR will
accompany the initial surge of precipitation, all liquid likely at
onset. A more substantial surge in moisture is expected after 06z
when precipitation will likely turn to a wintry mix with a period of
light to moderate snow and ice pellets possible at the northern TAF
sites (GSO, INT, RDU, RWI), best chances at GSO and INT. At FAY, all
liquid rain is expected with a period of moderate rainfall possible.
P-types will transition to all liquid and/or cease all together as
dry air aloft moves in from NW to SE. Low cigs of IFR to LIFR are
expected to persist as precip moves out and perhaps even lower to
around 300 ft with IFR/LIFR vsby from drizzle and mist towards the
end of the TAF period.

Outlook: IFR/LIFR cigs and fog may persist well through Fri night
into Sat with some improvement possible during the day on Sat.
Dependent on the degree of clearing, a redevelopment of sub-VFR fog
and stratus will be possible Sat night and linger well into Sun
ahead of our next weather system Sun into early Mon. A strong Arctic
front will scour out the lingering in-situ CAD regime and may bring
gusty NW winds Mon.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EST Friday
night for NCZ007>011-021>025.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...AS