862
FXUS62 KRAH 192320
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
620 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front extending from WV into VA will shift south across NC
this afternoon and evening before settling across GA and SC on
Thursday. High pressure will ridge across the region for Thursday
through early Friday before the front lifts north as a warm
front on Friday across the Carolinas and into VA.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1240 PM Wednesday...

As the wavering frontal boundary finally settles south this
afternoon, clouds will continue to clear from the region west to
east. Temperatures will warm up into the mid upper 70s across the
southwest, and upper 60s to low 70s across the northern Piedmont and
northern Coastal Plain. Overnight as the surface high extends down
from the Northeast, and the upper level ridge builds into the
region, upper level moisture will bring in more cloud cover which is
expected to stick around through Thursday. Depending on the TOA of
clouds, temps tonight could be a tad on the cooler side and may need
to be adjusted up 1-2 degrees with next forecast package. For now
have lows in the low 40s north to mid/upper 40s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1220 PM Wednesday...

Overview: Aloft, central NC will be on the nrn periphery of the sub-
tropical ridge on Thu, with a s/w approaching from the west. The s/w
will track across or north of the area Thu night/Fri as a more
potent s/w lifts newd from the Desert Southwest to the central
Plains. This second, stronger s/w will get picked up in the nrn
stream flow (about a cyclone moving east across Ontario and Quebec)
and track east across the mid-MS Valley to the TN/OH Valley Fri
night. At the surface, high pressure will ridge swd across the area
Thu, slowly shifting out of the area through Thu night as the high
shifts offshore and the boundary lifts back northward across central
NC. Swly flow will increase on Fri in the wake of the warm front and
ahead of the next system approaching from the west. The low will
generally ride/become a bit W-E elongated along the warm front as it
tracks ewd across the OH Valley and mid-Atlantic Fri night.

Precipitation: Much of the day Thu should be dry, with chances for
rain, mainly across the NW and north, Thu night/Fri morning. There
should be a lull in rain Fri aft/eve. Precipitation chances become a
bit more uncertain late Fri/Fri night, as they appear dependent upon
the track/timing of the s/w aloft. Will maintain the slight
chance/chance for Fri night until there is better agreement.

Temperatures: Cloud cover Thu may keep highs a bit muted, but still
within 6 degrees of normal, upper 60s SW to mid 50s NE. Lows should
range from low 50s SW to mid 40s NE. Expect above to well above
normal temperatures Fri/Fri night, with highs ranging from mid 70s
south to mid/upper 60s NE and lows in the mid 50s to around 60
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1252 PM Wednesday...

* Rain chances in the extended focused on Sat and late Tue/Wed

We will start mild on Sat ahead of a cold front slated to move south
out of VA. Ahead of the front, highs will be some 10-15 degrees
above normal in the low 70s N to mid/upper 70s S. The amount of
energy at mid-levels is relatively weak, but there does appear to be
enough isentropic lift and convergence along the boundary to warrant
some light rain or showers in the afternoon/evening. Rainfall
amounts, look to be light at a tenth of an inch or less in the
ensemble data.

Temperatures lower slightly Sun and Mon behind the front and with
somewhat cooler high pressure over the region. We should still
manage above normal highs by some 5-10 degrees in the 60s to around
70 and lows in the 40s.

For the early to middle part of next week, ridging will take over
briefly ahead of our next system. Guidance is indicating another
frontal system moving east from the Central Plains and MS valley
region. Currently, the models are not in excellent agreement on
timing, but a consensus of the ensemble data would suggest the best
chance of rain/showers sometime late Tue into Wed. Confidence on
details is low at this point, depending on the actual track of the
system. Highs are expected to mainly hold in the 60s through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 620 PM Wednesday...

VFR weather prevails across central NC this evening as the state
remains sandwiched between weak low pressure over upstate SC and a
southward progressing cold front over eastern VA. Meanwhile,
abundant high clouds continue to stream into the area from an upper
low over the desert southwest.

High cloud cover is likely to mitigate the threat for widespread fog
development overnight, however there are increasing concerns for
post-frontal stratus to advect into the area after midnight tonight.
Evening satellite imagery shows a clearly defined area of stratus
over eastern VA which is progged to move southward (albeit it
slowly) through the overnight hours. Both the 00Z and 12Z HREF along
with several runs of the HRRR are suggesting this solution. General
consensus of the models is that MVFR/borderline IFR cigs will arrive
at RWI and possibly RDU between 06Z-09Z, linger through mid morning,
then lift/scatter out by early afternoon. Hi-res guidance suggests
that the southward push of cloud cover is likely to slow/stall out
before reaching FAY and I will leave them at VFR all night.

Meanwhile, there is a fair amount of IFR stratus west of the
mountains, although much of this will either remain pinned west of
the area or mix out as it downslopes off the mountains. Will
introduce some lower ceilings later tonight (BKN045) but keep
conditions VFR throughout the period.

Outlook: A weak wave will lift through the area late Thursday into
Friday, potentially resulting in another round of early morning
restrictions to cigs and vsbys on Friday. This period of relatively
unsettled weather is likely to linger into Saturday as a stalled
boundary remains over NC, although the front will sag southward on
Sunday with cool/dry conditions and VFR weather favored into early
next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...Leins