825
FXUS62 KRAH 151813
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
113 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will hold over the Southeast ahead of a moisture-
starved cold front that will move across NC on Sunday. Pacific high
pressure will follow and build across and offshore the southern
Middle Atlantic through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Saturday...

* Dry, warm, and becoming breezy as a moisture-starved cold front
  approaches from the west.

An amplifying mid/upper level trough will dive SE out of central
Canada across the Great Lakes and into the northern Mid-Atlantic,
offering only glancing influence across NC.

At the surface, high pressure will continue to shift south and
eastward across the southeastern US and northern Carribean, ahead of
a moisture-starved cold front that will reach the NC mountains late
tonight.

Airmass moderation will continue under low-level SWLY flow, with
highs rising into the 70-75 degree and BL dewpoints increasing into
the 40s. Winds will become breezy by the afternoon, with modest
gusts of 15 to 20 mph. A vorticity shear axis and weak height falls
overspreading the area will support periods of  considerable high
clouds.

Tonight, the arrival of a nocturnal ~50kt low-level jet will keep
the BL well mixed, maintaining steady SWLY winds of 10 to 15 mph.
Overnight lows will remain mild, in the lower to mid 50s, with the
potential for orographically enhanced cirrus overspread the northern
zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Saturday...

*Continued warm and windy Sunday with colder air arriving Sunday
night

A dry cold front will sweep across the area Sunday, followed by the
arrival of Pacific high pressure Sunday night.

The primary weather concerns will be the windy conditions both ahead
and immediately behind the front. Expect sustained winds of 15 to 20
mph with frequent gusts of 25 to 30 mph, occasionally reaching 35 to
40 mph. Aided by downslope warming, highs will once again climb into
the 70s, and may approach 80 across the Sandhills and southern
coastal plain.

Behind the front, dewpoints will drops sharply during the afternoon,
likely yielding afternoon RH values in the 25 to 30 percent range
across much of central NC. This may lead to an increased fire
danger.

Gustiness will subside Sunday evening, though CAA will keep winds
stirring overnight. Lows will fall into the 35 to 40 range.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 208 AM Saturday...

Key points this period...

1) Dry weather with seasonable temps Monday through Tuesday
afternoon: SFC High pressure and s/w ridging aloft will set the
stage for the aforementioned weather.

2) Brief opportunity for some light rain Tuesday evening:  A quick-
moving s/w trough passing across the Mid Atlantic region will offer
a brief chance for rain mainly Tuesday evening, particularly across
the northern half of central NC.

3) Mainly dry wx with above normal temps during the Wed-Thu
timeframe: In the wake of Tuesday evening`s s/w trough exiting the
region, a ridge will quickly amplify over the eastern US Wednesday
through Thursday, which should keep PoPs minimized and allow for WAA
and resulting above-normal temps.

4) Increasing PoPs late Friday:  The next s/w trough will lift from
the central Plain newd toward the Great Lakes.  In the process, a
cold front will approach our region and eventually move across
central NC sometime next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 110 PM Saturday...

VFR. Swly winds will occasionally gust into the teens to around 20
kts through sunset, then diminish with nocturnal cooling and the
related development of a temperature inversion tonight. Meanwhile,
an anomalously strong low-level jet will develop in the lee of the
Appalachians and intensify overnight, yielding a high probability of
low-level wind shear - strongest at RDU/RWI/FAY. Daytime heating
will cause the nocturnal inversion to break between 13-15Z Sun, with
subsequent mixing and momentum transfer that will cause surface
winds to strengthen to near 15 kts, with gusts 25-30 kts. A band of
3500-5000 ft AGL based stratocumulus will accompany a moisture-
starved cold front across cntl NC early Sunday, with periods of
otherwise mid and high-level ceilings.

Outlook: Light, probably VFR rain will be possible invof a frontal
zone that will waver over NC Tue-Thu.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...MWS