762
FXUS62 KRAH 240646
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
146 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across and offshore the Middle Atlantic
through tonight. A wedge front will develop and become quasi-
stationary over the Foothills and Piedmont of the Carolinas and
Georgia Tuesday through Wednesday. A strong cold front will move
across the region early Wednesday night. Cold high pressure will
follow and build from northwestern Canada to the Middle Atlantic
through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1240 AM Monday...

Clear skies and drier air will dominate into today as high pressure
will be over the region. The high pressure will move offshore this
afternoon and tonight. A WAA pattern will return that will be
especially notable Tuesday. Expect sunny skies today with highs in
the lower to mid 60s with light wind. Expect mainly clear skies
tonight with some periodic high cloudiness. Lows in the upper 30s NE
ranging into the mid 40s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 111 AM Monday...

WAA aloft and significant moisture return along with an approaching
warm front Tuesday.

There is a good chance of rain in the west and depending on the
timing of arrival, longevity, and amounts will lead to the potential
for a CAD event.

Most of the rain will bypass the south and east, allowing for a
significant warming there.

We went a few degrees below the NBM Tuesday in the Piedmont Damming
Region to account for this possibility. If the rain begins early
enough in the morning as some models suggest, there will be a huge
temperature difference between the wet/moist NW and the dry SE
zones. I would lean toward even lower temperatures NW and higher SE
on Tue.

Messy CAD, low stratus, fog, etc... with the warm front/damming in
the Piedmont Damming resume Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 140 AM Tuesday...

* Lingering light rain and low-topped showers Wed shift east ahead
  of a cold front.

* Marginal fire weather concerns Thurs and Fri behind the cold front
  as breezy and very dry relative humidity is expected.

Wed begins in the warm pre-frontal regime with perhaps some
lingering rain from decaying upstream convection and some localized
showers near any MCV`s. The plume of enhanced deep-layer moisture,
characterized by PW`s 1 to 1.5", will quickly shift offshore through
the morning hours as significantly drier air above 850mb advects
into the region. The drier air should significantly hamper
widespread showers as the pre-frontal trough and eventually cold
front progress across the region. Surface dew points in the 60s may
still result in isolated to scattered low-topped showers along the
front, but otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions Wed afternoon.
Multi-layered cloudiness should limit optimal diurnal mixing, but an
average of 20-25 kts through the mixed layer should result in gusts
22-28 mph, strongest south and east of Raleigh. Wed will also be the
warmest day of the forecast period with highs ahead of the front
reaching into the mid/upper 70s to near 80 with near normal lows
overnight with CAA behind the front overnight.

A tight pressure gradient remains in place over the Mid-Atlantic
between the occluded low over Quebec and Canadian high pressure
shifting into the Ohio Valley through Fri night. This should result
in a favorable pattern for breezy northwest downsloping winds Thurs
and Fri afternoon. Under mostly clear skies, optimal momentum
transfer through the mixed layer should allow gusts to reach 20 to
25 kts through the afternoon. Dew points are expected to continue to
drop with downsloping compressional warming/drying reaching into the
teens and allow minimum relative humidity values to fall to 20-30%.
This combination may result in more adverse and potentially
dangerous fire behavior given abundant leaf litter, however, may
greatly depend on the conditions of fine fuels based on how much
rain falls Tues into Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1240 AM Monday...

VFR conditions will prevail for the 24 hour TAF period. Late this
afternoon, some mid to upper level VFR clouds should start to spread
over the region from the west.

Outlook: IFR-MVFR ceilings and patchy light rain will likely
overspread the Piedmont ahead of a retreating warm front Tuesday
morning. A chance of showers and also flight restrictions are
expected later Tuesday through Wednesday, as a strong frontal system
traverses the region.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...Badgett/LH