627
FXUS62 KRAH 220708
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
208 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will lift north of central NC this morning. This
will be followed by a cold front that will push south through
central North Carolina Saturday afternoon and evening. Behind the
front, high pressure will build in from the north Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 156 AM Saturday...

The warm front continues to slowly creep northward into the central
Piedmont/Coastal Plain this morning.  Areas north of the front
continue to see obs with reduced visibilities from fog. Latest
guidance suggests the front should clear the NC/VA border through
sunrise this morning. As such, expecting the fog to largely clear
from south to north the next several hours. Will monitor
observational trends, but the Dense Fog Advisory will likely be
cleared earlier than previously thought.

Aloft, a few weak vorticity perturbations are generating light rain
to our north in VA, and along the NC/SC border this morning. Further
southwest, a bit steadier rain is moving over the north-central
Piedmont of SC. Expect some of this activity to advect east across
the NC/SC border through a bit after sunrise, but generally diminish
with eastward extend this morning.  By mid-morning, swly sfc flow
will pick up a bit with gusts up to 20 mph at times (highest south
and east of Raleigh). High temps will warm into the mid to upper 70s
this afternoon with partial clearing likely.

The main upper short-wave expected to pass over us later today is
currently sliding into the Ohio Valley.  This feature, and
associated weak mid-level height falls will generate isolated to
scattered pre-frontal showers and storms for portions of our area
today.  Latest CAMs have backed off on coverage some, but best
chances still appear across the northern Piedmont/Coastal Plain mid-
afternoon and translating south across the Sandhills/southern
Coastal Plain late afternoon/early evening. Dew points will reach
the lower to mid 60s across the NC/SC border, which should promote
some instability and probably best storm chances in that vicinity.
Shear will be potent, and could lead to some organization. However,
lapse rates aren`t overly impressive and as such think any severe
threat would be low at this point.

Any lingering convection should move south of our area by early
tonight. Wnwly flow will usher in dry air behind the passing cold
front tonight, but the colder air will lag a bit, promoting
overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 207 AM Saturday...

PWAT drops to 50 to 75% of normal under dry nwly flow on Sunday as
mid-level ridging moves into the southeast. Expect dry and cool
weather with highs in the mid to upper 60s Sunday afternoon.  Clear
and calm conditions with high pressure overhead Sunday night should
promote good radiational cooling potential. Expect lows to dip into
the mid to upper 30s area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 PM Friday...

* Unsettled weather expected Tue through Wed night, but timing of
  highest rain chances is uncertain; no significant hazards expected.

* Likely dry and mild Sun/Mon; dry once again Thu/Fri but cooler.

Sun/Mon: The surface cold front should be settling to our S Sun,
with the mean mid level trough axis pushing off the East Coast as a
modestly amplified ridge builds in from the W. This places us within
general subsidence and rising heights aloft, favoring fair and dry
conditions. The incoming surface high from the W is continental in
nature, yielding slightly above normal thicknesses over central NC
as it builds in, its center tracking from AR/MO Sun morning to the
Mid Atlantic Mon morning before pushing off the Mid Atlantic coast
Mon evening/night. As such, temps should be mild but not
significantly deviated from normal, with highs generally in the 60s
to near 70 and lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Tue-Wed night: While the timing details remain murky, it`s expected
that this period will be somewhat active, but likely not
particularly hazardous. The surface high moving out over the NW
Atlantic will put NC in a return flow pattern, with falling heights
aloft as the mid level ridge flattens and pushes off the Southeast
coast in response to a digging trough over the Dakotas and Upper
Midwest. The primary model differences appear to be with the
strength/amplitude of this Midwest trough, which in part will drive
its progression and that of the corresponding surface cold front.
The models with a stronger mid level trough/low are slower with the
cold front passage through central NC, doing so late Wed night or
early Thu morning, while the models with a weaker and more
progressive trough have a faster fropa, on Wed. As the core
components of this trough, including a closed low off Baja
California and energy over the NE Pacific, are over somewhat data-
sparse regions, we can`t identify a clear preferred solution at this
time, so will retain above-climo pops through this period, focusing
the better pops late Tue night and again Wed evening. It won`t be
raining this entire time, and instead we`re more likely to see
rounds of showers associated with passing jet streaks in the mean SW
flow ahead of the front. The thunder risk appears non-zero but low,
mostly ahead of the front and perhaps associated with an upper jet
streak entrance region, so will keep the mention of thunder as
isolated. Temps in this prefrontal WAA pattern are apt to be above
normal despite the general increase in clouds, although an increase
in moist upglide Tue as the surface high moves further offshore
might leave a cool stable pool in the NC Piedmont, reducing Tue high
temps there. This particular continental high will not contain very
low dewpoints, so the effects of any in situ upglide-induced CAD may
be muted. Will have around 60/low 60s for highs in the NW Tue, with
low 70s SE, followed by Wed highs mostly in the 70s.

Thu/Fri: As noted above, if the mid level trough and surface fropa
end up slower, we could see lingering clouds and pops Thanksgiving
Day morning, esp across the E and S. But overall we should trend
toward fair and dry conditions, with greater confidence in this on
Fri. Expect increasing sunshine Thanksgiving Day, although with the
incoming surface high of Canadian/Arctic origin, the CAA will keep
highs below normal, in the 50s to low 60s. Fri is likely to be even
cooler with highs of 50-57. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 106 AM Saturday...

TAF period: IFR TO LIFR stratus and fog will persist at
KINT/KGSO/KRDU/KRWI early this morning through near sunrise.
Ceilings and visbys should lift to VFR as sfc flow picks up  from
the sw ahead of a cold front after sunrise. We`ll see some partial
clearing this afternoon, which could trigger a few showers and
tstorms, with best chances at KRDU/KRWI/KFAY between ~20 and 00Z.
Dry post-frontal VFR conditions are then expected Saturday night
through Sunday morning.

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions are expected Sunday and Monday. Our next
chance for rain and sub-VFR conditions would be Tuesday through
Thursday as a frontal system approaches and moves across central NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Luchetti