060
FXUS62 KRAH 071810
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
210 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight, then push
southeast through the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. Much
cooler high pressure will then build in from the north Thursday
through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...

* Increasing clouds overall, with low chance pops far NW overnight.

The offshore surface high continues to loosen its grip on NC as it
slides slowly further out to sea, while in the mid levels, our
heights are gradually falling as the anticyclone over the Southeast
slips further SW with the approach of the upper trough. The incoming
cold front is analyzed from SE Ontario through SW MI and cntrl IN to
cntrl TX, with a prefrontal trough from a low in far W KY down
through MS. We`re firmly in the prefrontal WAA field with slowly
rising theta-e, esp across our S and W, although the greatest theta-
e remains across SC/GA into cntrl TN. Deeper prefrontal moisture
will steadily stream across W NC this evening and into central NC
overnight, although the more substantial forcing for ascent will be
delayed until Wed, as the mid-upper trough axis will still be to our
NW overnight, with warm mid levels/poor lapse rates aloft and low
deep-layer shear. Moist isentropic upglide will remain limited until
late, but should be sufficient at 295-300K for chance pops with
light amounts in the NW overnight, mainly from the Triangle to the N
and W. Increasing clouds to limit radiational cooling along with
rising dewpoints will support warm lows in the mid-upper 60s. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 PM Tuesday...

* Cloudy and humid with fairly high rain chances, but with mostly
  light amounts.

The plume of PWs 135-150% of normal will stream across central NC
ahead of the surface cold front as it tracks SE through the forecast
area Wed. The axis of the broad mid level trough is expected to
reach the Appalachians around noon before progressing toward the Mid
Atlantic coast by early evening, and while this will mean a brief
uptick in mid level flow during the mid to late afternoon, the
southern portion of this trough will be a bit laggy and sheared by
the time it drops into our area. This, along with the expected low
CAPE due to limited heating and modest mid level lapse rates, will
result in a low risk of strong storms overall, although the
potential for fewer clouds and better heating early in the SE could
result in a few strong cells there in the mid to late afternoon.
Despite the high PW, the generally broad/unfocused dynamic forcing
for ascent, lack of training, and limited CAPE should keep amounts
well under an inch in most spots, particularly given the weakening
850 mb winds by afternoon. But a mid-late afternoon uptick in lift
as the right entrance region of the upper jet scrapes by along with
potentially better CAPE in the SE may lead to a few deeper
convective cores there. Expect highs mostly 75-80, except lower 80s
SE. Pops should be on the downswing in the evening, ending N to S,
although we could see a few postfrontal showers in the far S along a
potential secondary surge of lower dewpoints near or shortly after
midnight. Drier low levels advecting in from the N late will drive
low temps, and currently expect lows from the upper 40s near the VA
border, with overnight clearing, to upper 50s to near 60 in the far
S, where clouds will linger for a longer time. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 205 PM Tuesday...

* Below normal high temperatures expected behind Wednesday`s front.

* A coastal low is expected to develop this weekend. Uncertainty
  remains in the strength and track.

By Thursday morning, the cold front will stall off the coast and
high pressure should start to build in. This will dry out the
forecast and cool temperatures. High temperatures on Thursday look
to be up to 10 degrees below normal or in the mid 60s to low 70s,
with lows in the low 40s in the northwest to the mid 50s in the
southeast. Temperatures should rise a few degrees on Friday, into
the mid 60s to mid 70s, with lows in the upper 40s to the upper 50s.

This weekend, the region should return to a period of unsettled
weather as a coastal low is expected to develop from the stalled
front off the southeast coast. There is still a lot of uncertainty
with this system, with the GFS and its ensemble showing a closer low
and a wetter solution over central NC, while the ECMWF and its
ensemble show a further low that is drier over the region. Models
also diverge in the track of the low early next week, making the
rest of the extended period uncertain. For now, the best chance of
rain is in the east and looks to start Saturday night and last
through early Monday morning. Model trends will continue to be
monitored in the coming days to get a better insight on potential
impacts to central NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 153 PM Tuesday...

VFR cumulus have developed across central NC this afternoon along
with a few isolated pockets of light rain in the southern
Piedmont/Coastal Plain. Expect multi-layered cloudiness to increase
through early tonight as anomalous moisture streams across central
NC ahead of a sfc cold front. There is some uncertainty wrt to how
low stratus might get tonight, but best chances for MVFR ceilings
should be across northern terminals near sunrise. Periods of MVFR
ceilings should persist through the end of the 24 hr TAF period
everywhere except KFAY. Pre-frontal light rain is expected as early
as sunrise at KINT/KGSO and perhaps KRDU. As we progress through the
mid to late morning hours, precipitation may become more convective
in nature especially at KFAY where an isolated thunderstorm could be
possible.

Beyond 18Z Wednesday: Any lingering MVFR ceilings should largely
lift to VFR by Wednesday afternoon. However, showers and an isolated
thunderstorm will remain possible through Wednesday evening
(primarily at KFAY/KRWI). The actual cold front will push across
central NC Wednesday night. Depending on the timing of the front,
there may be concern for fog/stratus early Wednesday night until the
front sweeps drier air into our area through Thursday morning.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail through Saturday. However, sub-VFR
conditions, rain, and perhaps some gusty winds appear possible with
a developing coastal low late Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...LH
AVIATION...Luchetti