207
FXUS62 KRAH 160624
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
120 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A moisture-starved cold front that will move across NC today.
Pacific high pressure will follow and build across and offshore the
southern Middle Atlantic through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Sunday...

* Rapidly falling humidity and gusty winds behind a dry frontal
  passage will result in dangerous fire weather conditions for much
  of the area.

* Red Flag Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for the
  northern counties, with an Increased Fire Danger for the remaining
  areas.

A moisture-starved cold front, further limited by a west-
northwesterly downslope component east of the mountains, will sweep
across the area through the afternoon. In it`s wake, Pacific high
pressure will settle into the region tonight.

Rapidly falling humidity and gusty winds behind the front will
produce dangerous fire weather conditions for much of central NC.
Windy conditions are expected both ahead and immediately behind the
front, with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and frequent gusts of 25
to 30 mph, occasionally reaching 35 to 40 mph. At the same time,
dewpoints will drop sharply, yielding afternoon RH values in the 20
to 30 percent range across much of central NC. The earlier onset of
post-frontal drying and a longer duration of critical RH values
(<25%), will result in the greatest fire risk across northern areas.

Following collaboration with the NCFS and surrounding NWS offices,
the Red Flag Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for the
northern counties, with an Increased Fire Danger for the remaining
areas.

Aided by downslope warming, highs will range from near 70 north to
upper 70s across the Sandhills and southern coastal plain.

Gustiness will subside in the evening, though CAA will keep winds
stirring overnight. Lows will fall into the 35 to 40 range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Sunday...

* Cool, Below Normal Temperatures

* Marginal fire concerns

An upper-level trough over the Eastern US will quickly lift NE
Monday, with substantial height rises overspreading the region as
ridging builds in from the southwest. Pacific high pressure settling
over the area will support a brief stint of below normal
temperatures.

Highs will range from the mid/upper 50s across the north to lower
60s south. Lows in the lower to mid 30s.

Breezy conditions will develop after sunrise, with winds 15 to 25
mph, peaking through lunchtime/midday, followed by gradual
diminishing through the afternoon. RH values will fall into the
upper teens to lower/mid 20s, keeping fire concerns marginal at this
time.

&&


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1220 AM Sunday...

Surface high shifts off the coast Tuesday afternoon with a weak warm
front lifting north Tuesday night. While most of the energy and
precip will remain in VA, there are some low end rain chances along
the VA/NC border overnight Tuesday/ early Wednesday morning. QPF
amounts are expected to be light, a tenth of an inch or less. As the
frontal boundary stalls across the region and washes out,
temperatures are expected to be 10-15 degrees above normal with
highs in the 70s Wednesday-Friday. Lows will be in the 50s.

Another frontal system will move into the Mid-Atlantic region late
Friday into Saturday bringing increased rain chances to the region.
Long range models show difference in timing of the frontal passage
with precip chances beginning as early as late Friday night and
continuing through much of Saturday. For now kept 20-40% chance
Friday evening with less chances by Saturday afternoon. The timing
on these chances could be shifted depending on the timing of the
trough moving across the mountains and how potent the parent low is
as it shifts across the OH valley and Lower Great Lakes region.
Temperatures will generally be slightly cooler Saturday and Sunday
with highs in the low to mid 70s Sat and low to mid 60s Sunday. Low
temperatures each night will range from the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1040 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF period. Light
swly winds (with some occasional 15 kt + gusts in the Triad) will
persist as a nocturnal inversion strengthens overnight. The WRAL
tall tower has consistently observed 45 to 50 kt winds at 1200 to
1800 feet this evening, with lighter winds at the sfc. Expect LLWS
to persist at all terminals through ~14Z when the low-level
inversion should break. Good mixing should then promote gusts of 20
to 30 kts through ~00 to 01Z Monday when winds should relax. A band
of 3500-5000 ft AGL stratocu will accompany a dry cold front early
Sunday. There could be a brief period of marginal LLWS at northern
TAF sites after 00Z Monday as flow wanes at the sfc, but confidence
was too low to include LLWS in any TAFs at this update.

Outlook: Light, probably VFR rain will be possible along a frontal
zone that will waver invof NC Tue-Thu.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening
for NCZ007>011-021>028-041-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Luchetti/MWS
FIRE WEATHER...MWS