354
FXUS62 KRAH 030713
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
213 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Continental Polar high pressure will migrate across the Southeast
through early Thursday. A dry cold front will lead Arctic high
pressure across and offshore the Middle Atlantic later Thursday
through Friday, while weak waves of low pressure will track along a
wavy frontal zone from the northern Gulf to offshore the Southeast
coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM Tuesday...

As the main surface low moves off the VA/NC coast early this
afternoon and tracks northeast along the US coastline, rain will
taper from west to east. Most of central NC should be dry by late
afternoon. High pressure over Tennessee will gradually build in
tonight, bringing clearing skies and a continued northwest breeze
with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Highs today will remain in the
upper 40s to around 50. Overnight lows will fall into the midupper
20s across the northwest and generally the lower 30s elsewhere, with
most locations at or below freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM Tuesday...

Quiet weather will continue on Wednesday as high pressure remains in
control of the Mid-Atlantic. Expect mostly sunny skies with light
and variable winds through the day. Highs will run about 10 degrees
below average, ranging from the mid to upper 40s, with a few low 50s
possible across the south. Overnight, calm winds and reduced cold
advection will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 20s to
around 30 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Wednesday...

* Highest chances for precipitation still Friday into early Friday
  night, with lower confidence in chances Saturday through Monday.

* There may be some snow accumulation across the northern Piedmont
  and northern Coastal Plain Fri morning before mixing with and
  changing over to rain Fri afternoon.

Aloft, a s/w will track ewd across the region Fri and offshore Fri
night as another s/w drops sewd into the cntl Plains. The second s/w
may finally help the longwave trough progress ewd across the cntl
and ern CONUS Fri night through Sun. Central NC should be under the
influence of wswly to swly flow through at least Sun. The second s/w
may move across the region Sun night/Mon, but model solutions vary
wrt the timing, amplitude, and available moisture. Another nrn
stream s/w may track across the Great Lakes/OH Valley and Northeast
US Tue/Tue night. At the surface, Arctic high pressure over the Tri-
State area Fri morning will shift ewd and off the New England coast
on Fri, while continuing to ridge swwd across the region. Meanwhile,
an area of low pressure will eject enewd across the Southeast US and
lift newd off and along the Carolina coast, along a quasi-stationary
front Fri/Fri night. There could be another wave/low that develops
and tracks along the front Sat/Sat night, following a similar track
as the previous low. Farther west, an area of low pressure may
develop off the srn Rockies over the srn Plains Sat night in
response to the s/w aloft. This low should track ewd across the lwr
MS Valley and Deep South on Sun, however there are considerable
model differences with this system that will influence its potential
impacts, or lack thereof, for central NC Sun night/Mon.

Precipitation: Fri still looks like the wettest day/eve in the
extended forecast. There is an increasing signal for another
possible round of precipitation between late Sat and Sun aft,
highest chances across the south and east. Sun night/Mon remains
fairly uncertain, but there is at least a slight chance for some
precipitation during that time.

P-types: While the majority of the precipitation from Fri to Mon is
expected to be liquid, some wintry precipitation is possible with
each of the rounds, mainly during the early morning timeframe and
especially across the northern portions of central NC. For the
Friday system, some snow may linger into the morning across the nrn
Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain, with up to 0.5 inch accumulation
possible, before mixing with and becoming all rain during the
afternoon. Based on current timing, this could impact the morning
commute for locations along and north of the US-1 corridor. As the
low moves away Fri night/early Sat, there could be a brief period of
some fzra over the nrn Piedmont. Given the continued low confidence
and model differences, will hold off on specifics for Sat night
through Mon.

Temperatures: Highs will remain below normal Fri-Tue. Fri will the
coldest day, with highs ranging from mid 30s NW to mid 40s SE, some
15-20 degrees below normal. Highs Sat and Sun ranging from mid 40s
to around 50 degrees. Lows should generally remain near to slightly
below normal, generally ranging from upper 20s to low/mid 30s, with
the exception of Mon night, which could be several degrees lower,
but uncertainty remains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday...

While mainly VFR conditions are forecast for cntl NC through 06Z
Thu, MVFR to low VFR stratocumulus now wrapping clockwise from ern NC
through SC may linger across srn NC through this evening, including
near and especially just southwest of FAY (ie. toward MEB and RCZ).
Surface high pressure will otherwise build across the Southeast and
favor light and variable surface winds in cntl NC.

Outlook: Strong radiational cooling tonight, atop saturated soil
from yesterday`s rain, will probably promote the development of at
least patchy fog Thu morning, with highest probability of occurrence
and lowest visibility restrictions in an arc from near CLT to FAY to
RWI. An energetic southern stream jet will send a few waves of lift
and precipitation --and flight restrictions-- into cntl NC late this
week through early next week. The first will arrive and will include
a chance of snow over the Piedmont late Thu night-Fri.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...ca
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...MWS