111
FXUS65 KREV 011948
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1248 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures remain below average through the upcoming week,
  with Friday being the coldest day.

* The best chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive Thursday
  afternoon through Friday as low pressure drops into the region.

* Drier and cool conditions prevail this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Periods of light showers will continue through the rest of the
afternoon as we remain at the edge of the storm track. One or two
stray thunderstorms may develop in the Sierra this afternoon.
Breezy afternoon winds return, but then those should decrease in
most valley areas, except on mountain ridges were those breezes
continue.

Another upper level trough descends into the region tomorrow and
brings back widespread chances for showers and isolated
thunderstorms. This activity will be moving relatively fast as
winds in the 500 mb layer are going to be moving at 30-50 kts and
around 15-30kts at the 700 mb layer. Therefore, expect mainly
locally heavy rain where storms end up training. Otherwise, the
storms should move fast. Anyway, there is a marginal risk (5-15%
chance) of excessive rain by WPC. Other hazards with this activity
will be occasional lightning, small hail and gusty outflow winds
in excess of 40 mph. CAMs are indicating the convection will be
mainly over the Tahoe Basin and, NV Basin and Range where
multiple bands of rain/storms are expected starting tomorrow
afternoon and tomorrow night.

By Friday, temperatures will drop as the backside of the system
brings colder air behind the associated cold front. Drier
conditions start by Friday afternoon, but temperatures will not
improve much through the rest of the weekend. Temperatures will
gradually warm up early next week, but will remain below normal.

That being said there is yet another upper level low system
affecting the region Monday into Tuesday. However, there is
uncertainty about how deep this next trough will be and how much
precipitation it will bring to the area.

-HC

&&

.AVIATION...

Generally VFR conditions continue through tomorrow (Thursday)
afternoon. The exceptions will be near SHRA and -TSRA where CIGS
and VIS could drop to MVFR or IFR with the strongest activity. The
strongest storms are likely tomorrow after 18Z. Storms appear to
continue into the overnight hours. Low level cloud decks leading
to mountain obscurations in the Sierra continue through tomorrow.

Winds increase this afternoon, but will be lighter than the last
few days at terminals. Winds decrease in the valleys overnight.
However, minor turbulence and LLWS will persist through tomorrow.

-HC

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$