Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
041 FXUS65 KREV 022136 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 136 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy in the mountains tonight & Wednesday, with sub-zero wind chills on ridges and choppy water on Tahoe. * Cold temperatures Wednesday with a gradual warming through Friday. More appreciable warming this weekend, with above normal temperatures favored into next week. * No significant storms through at least mid-next week, but a few light rain or snow showers are possible Friday or Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... * Inland cold front slides through the Great Basin this evening. Expecting a dry frontal passage with best lift/moisture to our east. Behind the front will see an increase in E/NE flow aloft tonight into Wednesday. RRFS showing 700mb flow 20-30 knots. So Sierra crest will get breezy but a relatively minor NE wind event. Could also see some minor chop on Tahoe, mainly west shores. * Generally quiet into the weekend with ridge setting up along the west coast. In the post-frontal airmass, temps will probably be slow to warm Thursday and maybe Friday with strong morning inversions and light winds. More appreciable warming comes this weekend as westerly flow increases slightly. One thing to watch is a decaying storm into the Pac NW that could bring light rain/snow showers to the northern Great Basin & NE California sometime Friday into Saturday. Guidance is mixed, high-res is faster while NBM is slower, so limited confidence at this point. * For much of next week, the ridge intensifies and is positioned more overhead, leading to little to no precipitation and a stagnant airmass. Valley haze is likely with pretty limited ventilation shown in NBM. However, with no low elevation snowpack to intensify inversions, temps should still be above normal. * Very end of next week (12/12-15) offers us our next hope of meaningful precipitation with ECMWF AIFS mean guidance showing a breakdown of the ridge. But of course the unknown is how far south the storm track gets. These would not likely be warm AR- type storms, per CW3E guidance, but they show more of a Gulf of Alaska source. So any storms could be beneficial for the struggling Sierra snowpack, but it is not the best signal in the AIFS guidance with only a 40% chance of at least 1" liquid equivalent in the Sierra through 12/15. We shall see... -Chris && .AVIATION... * Dry cold frontal passage this evening will lead to breezy NW/N winds at most airfields with gusts up to 20 kt. Winds switch to E/NE direction overnight & Wednesday, leading to turbulence over the Sierra, mainly along the west slopes. * Otherwise, expecting VFR conditions tonight and tomorrow, with mainly SCT-BKN high clouds. No fog concerns at TRK with E/NE flow and drying airmass. -Chris && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$