Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
474 FXUS65 KREV 090924 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 124 AM PST Sun Nov 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Light winds, dry conditions, and a warming trend continue through Tuesday. * Temperatures will peak Monday with record-setting high temperatures possible. * A storm looks to impact the area mid-late next week, with the potential for high-mountain snow, valley rain, and strong winds. && .DISCUSSION... A ridge remains in place over the western US that is allowing our region to warm up a little bit more each day. Temperatures will peak on Monday with lower valleys getting into the mid-70`s and Sierra communities in the upper 60`s. KRNO has an 80% chance to tie and 50-60% chance to break our high temperature record of 74 degrees on Monday. Other than the warm temps, we`ll have some light winds and dry conditions through Tuesday. Patchy freezing fog will likely be back at KTRK and Martis Valley this morning, though Tuesday night onward the chances go to near zero due to increasing cloud cover. Looking ahead to Wednesday through Friday, long range models are showing signs of our next weather system moving in. A Pacific NW upper level trough looks to push our current high pressure out of the way mid-late week. Last night, there was pretty solid agreement between ensembles and even deterministic models, but tonight it looks like the models have diverged quite drastically. I won`t get too into the specifics of the differences this far out, but overall forecast confidence remains fairly low. The winds will peak first some time Wednesday night or Thursday morning, then the leading edge of rain and high elevation snow will follow shortly after. If the core upper level dynamics hold up as this gets closer, the Sierra Front and eastern Sierra are going to see strong, downsloping winds again like we saw this past Wednesday. Only this time around it`ll be a strong, almost due southerly flow across the region. The winds have been trending up over the last 48 hours, as reflected in the EC EFI (Extreme Forecast Index) and the ensembles. We`ll see if that trend continues this week as the hi-res models start to pick up on this storm. The band of precip will extend across the entire Sierra from Lassen County down to southern Mono County. The snow levels will start off high around 8500` at the onset of the precip, then drop dramatically down to possible 5500` after the front rolls through. Showers over the Sierra may linger throughout the day Thursday and into Thursday night over Mono County, but again this far out uncertainty with this storm remains high. We`ll also keep an eye on the spillover potential into the Sierra Front and western NV. Right now the 700mb wind direction isn`t too favorable for much spillover. More details on this storm will be coming soon, so stay tuned this week! -Justin && .AVIATION... VFR conditions and a gentle east wind will continue today for all terminals. There`s patchy freezing fog lurking around KTRK this morning that may spread onto the runway, however it should dissipate by 16-17z. -Justin && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$