782
FXUS65 KREV 010839
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
139 AM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures remain below average for the upcoming week, with
  Friday likely the coolest day.

* The best overall chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive
  Thursday afternoon through Friday as low pressure drops into
  western NV.

* Drier but still cool conditions prevail this weekend and into
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today brings a relative lull in between weather systems with
southwest flow aloft prevailing, while a narrow moisture feed
pivots north of I-80 to bring bands of light rain showers mainly
to northeast CA-northwest NV. Elsewhere, cloud cover and shower
chances will decrease farther south and east. While many areas
remain cooler than average today, highs will be closer to early
October averages (mid-upper 70s) near and east of US-95 in
Churchill-Mineral counties, and also along US-6 in southeast Mono
County. Afternoon breezes return, but gusts will be less (mainly
20-30 mph, with a few gusts to 35 mph for northwest NV) compared
to recent days.

For Thursday-Friday, the low pressure area that has persisted off
the Pacific NW coast is projected to drop southward into northern
CA and then push across western NV. The consensus track of this
system would pull in more Pacific moisture and bring more
organized forcing initially over the Tahoe basin and far western
NV Thursday afternoon, then shift to west central NV Thursday
evening. Meanwhile, a separate area of nocturnal convection is
showing up late Thursday evening on both regular and high-res
guidance, initially west of the Sierra crest before spreading
across Alpine/Mono counties, and much of western NV south of US-50
overnight into early Friday. Potential for heavier rainfall
amounts (0.25-0.50" with a few locations potentially receiving 1"
or more) is increasing across much of the region including the
I-80 and US-50 corridors, with a Marginal (5-15%) risk of
excessive rainfall added by the Weather Prediction Center (WPC).

Bands of showers and t-storms then wrap around the low on Friday,
with the location of these bands currently favoring west central
NV southward to Mono County. However, the eventual track of this
low would determine where the coverage is greatest. Pockets of
heavier rainfall are also on the table Friday afternoon-evening,
before this low exits to the east. Due to widespread thick cloud
cover along with these precip chances, temperatures Friday are
trending lower, with highs mainly ranging from the mid 50s-lower
60s.

For this weekend through the early part of next week, a general
drying trend is expected as high pressure builds off the west
coast, although a few scenarios still indicate a back-door or
slider-type system dropping in from the north which could bring
low-end shower chances. As a north to northeast flow persists
across the region, only a minor rebound from Friday`s temps is
expected with highs mainly in the 60s. Chilly overnight lows will
spread over the region as cloud cover and winds decrease, with
many Sierra valleys dropping below freezing while lower elevations
dip into the upper 30s-lower 40s. Even some of the typically
colder western NV/northeast CA valleys could come close to
freezing on one or more of these nights. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected today through Thursday morning at the main
terminals, except for KTVL/KTRK where passing rain showers may
briefly drop CIGS/VIS to MVFR, along with mountain top
obscurations extending into far western NV. Wind gusts will be a
bit less compared to yesterday (mainly 20-25 kt) but mountain wave
turbulence is likely to continue with southwest wind gusts of
35-45 kt at FL100/ridge top levels.

This shower and t-storm coverage is likely to increase across
most terminals Thursday afternoon-night, initially for the Tahoe
area before extending to far western NV and eventually to KMMH.
This activity will be capable of bringing longer periods of MVFR
CIGS and/or VIS, potential for brief IFR during heavier rainfall,
gusty winds of 30+ kt, small hail and lightning. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$