781
FXUS65 KREV 072204
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
204 PM PST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A warming trend begins today with relatively light winds and dry
  conditions through the rest of Friday.

* The dry and warming pattern will prevail through the weekend
  into early next week, with high temperatures by Monday near
  record levels.

* A more active storm pattern may return by late next week, but
  current confidence is lower on rain, snow, and wind impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The latest RAP analysis of the upper air pattern shows a west-
northwesterly flow over the CWA with a weak shortwave trough over
northern NV this afternoon. The effects of this shortwave can be
seen in current satellite imagery in the form of clouds over the
northern half of NV. With this pattern aloft, the CWA expects to see
dry conditions (following some light rain showers near the Tahoe
Basin this morning) for the remainder of the day. Daytime highs
today should be slightly warmer than those experienced yesterday
with western NV valleys reaching the lower to middle 60s range and
Sierra communities topping off around the middle to upper 50s.
Cloud cover looks to lessen a bit by tonight allowing for a cool
night with the forecast calling for western NV to see overnight
lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s and the Sierra communities
having low temperatures bottoming out in the upper 20s to middle
30s range. Forecast models do show the potential for freezing fog
to develop in the Sierra and Martis Valleys overnight going into
tomorrow morning, so please use caution if traveling through these
areas at these times.

Going through the weekend, forecast guidance shows an upper air
ridge building over the western CONUS, which will allow the area
temperatures to continue a slow warming trend along with light
winds and dry conditions. By early next week, the ridging pattern
persists into the Veterans Day holiday. As the ridge still looks
to flatten a bit on Monday, near record to record high
temperatures are looking more possible on Monday afternoon. The
latest NBM probabilities show a 50% chance of the Reno-Tahoe
International Airport of breaking the November 10th record high of
74F and a ~75% chance of tying the record. But generally, the NV
valley portions of the CWA look to see the return of highs in the
70s on Monday and Tuesday while the Sierra communities will see
highs in the middle to upper 60s range with Monday being the
warmer of the two days.

By the middle of next week, extended forecast guidance continues
to show a pattern change as a trough moves closer to the Pacific
coast on Wednesday which will push the ridge eastward.
Temperatures start to trend downward with increasing winds as a
result with precipitation chances returning to the Sierra by the
evening hours. Ensemble guidance then shows precipitation chances
increasing quite a bit as the offshore trough moves closer to the
CWA on Thursday. There still is low confidence in how this system
will evolve as some long term guidance shows the Pacific trough
staying as a trough and passing over the CWA late next Friday
while other guidance projects the trough cutting off into an
upper low and slowly passing over the region during the following
weekend. Upon looking at the latest GEFS Integrated Water Vapor
Transport (IVT) product, there looks to a good amount of moisture
headed this way, but the transport vectors are pointed in a south
to north direction which does not favor spillover potential at
this time. Until there is more certainty between models in the
pattern evolution and track, details on what to expect (rain,
snow, & wind impacts) remain uncertain this far out. Will continue
to monitor this potential mid-November system, so please stay
tuned to the forecast as this system could possibly produce some
impactful weather. -078

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of today as
relatively light winds and dry conditions are to be expected with
gusts up to around 15 kts through around 7/01Z. Cloud cover looks
to decrease overnight across the region, which may cause potential
freezing fog to develop overnight into the morning hours at KTRK
causing possible sub-VFR conditions. A ridge looks to build over
the weekend allowing for VFR conditions to continue with light
winds. -078

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$