Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
647 FXUS65 KREV 080853 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 153 AM PDT Wed Oct 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Temperatures warm up through Thursday with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. * Winds increase from the southwest each day through Friday. * A storm system arrives by the end of the week, bringing cooler temperatures and chances for rain and mountain snow. && .DISCUSSION... A weak high pressure area remains over the area through this evening. This will keep the warm trend going through tomorrow afternoon as the high is pushed east by the approach of the next upper level trough from the PacNW. Temperatures in the next 2 days will be in the mid to upper 70s western NV and NE CA, while Sierra communities will be in the mid to upper 60s. Winds increase as the upper ridge is slowly pushed away. Gusts today will be in the 20-30 mph range and by Thursday they will be in the 20-35 mph range, especially south of US-50. Some areas south of US-50 may have elevated to near critical fire weather conditions on Thursday due to the higher wind speeds and low relative humidity. The long wave upper level trough will arrive on Friday, and will push a series of shortwaves through the weekend into next week. The first shortwave passes Friday into Saturday bringing stronger winds on Friday afternoon, rain and snow chances above 7 kft in the Sierra, and cooler temperatures. The tightening of the pressure gradient will lead to gusts between 30-40 mph Friday afternoon in the valleys, higher gusts in the mountains. Chances of gusts greater than 35 mph are in the 60-80%. It will be a kind of wet weekend if you are in the northern Sierra and NE CA with a 40-60% chance of seeing wetting rain. Otherwise, it will be mostly very light and spotty rain for western NV. Not expecting much in terms of thunderstorms as chances across the majority of the area are below 10%. Snow levels drop to 7 kft with the cooler air intrusion. So, some light mountain snow/flurries are likely this weekend over the Sierra crest and passes. Not expecting significant accumulations, as the probability of exceeding one inch of snow is 10-20%. Temperatures will drop considerably this weekend too. Afternoon highs will be 10-20 degrees below average. By Sunday morning, many places across western NV valleys may be flirting with freezing temperatures. Next week, we remain under the longwave trough, but the land of uncertainty returns as the next shortwave is depicted differently with every model with respect to its timing and position. Anyway, the current trend that we can perceive at the moment is cooler temperatures with breezy afternoons, and low to moderate chances of valley rain and mountain snow. How much rain and snow is also tbd, but the current trend hints at light accumulations, except near the Sierra crest. -HC && .AVIATION... VFR conditions continue through Thursday with mostly clear skies. Winds will be generally light from the south and southwest, but increase between 20-03Z to 10-15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts. KTRK remains the exception between 10z-16z due to patchy FZFG. Afternoon wind gusts increase again tomorrow, but peak on Friday. -HC && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$