150
FXUS65 KREV 162135
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
135 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Wetting rains and mountain snow will persist today with
  decreasing coverage through this afternoon.

* A colder storm arrives early Monday morning, bringing colder
  temperatures and more rain, mountain snow, and breezy winds.

* Low confidence but high impact potential for wrap-around
  rain/snow showers for the Sierra Front Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Light valley rain and mountain snow showers above 6500 ft are
expected to continue until around sunset tonight as the low
pressure system pushes east. Lingering showers are possible along
the Sierra tonight (20-40%) but model guidance hints at clearing.
However, since the models have been fluctuating greatly this
weekend with timing and placement of precipitation, this
forecaster has low confidence on those lingering showers; nothing
might actually fall from the sky and it could be more of a mist.
Probabilities for lingering showers are actually better north of
the Tahoe Basin into NE CA where odds are 40-60%.

For W NV, there looks to be about 9-12 hrs of "dry" conditions
before influences from the second low pressure arrive early
Monday morning. This system will be colder with snow levels
between 6-7 kft. The onset of the precipitation in the Tahoe Basin
is expected around 4 AM, and around 7 AM for our friends in Mono
county. Snowfall rates will peak to around 1"/hr in the 5-8 AM
timeframe for the Tahoe Basin and 2"/hr around 8-11 AM for Mono
county. As of now, there is a 50-60% chance for at least 4 inches
of snow by 10 AM in and around the Tahoe Basin, including Donner
Pass. For Mono county, those probabilities increase to 70-80%,
coinciding with those heavier snowfall rates. Foothill
communities along the Sierra Front may also see some dustings of
snow. TLDR; expect impacts to the Monday AM commute. Plan ahead by
leaving early and leaving plenty of space between other vehicles.
For roadway conditions, please see QuickMap (CA) and NVRoads
(NV).

Snow showers may also impact portions of NE CA and far N Washoe
county tomorrow morning after sunrise as well, though confidence
is low on the extent of the impacts. Snowfall totals look minimal
due to snow levels around 6kft and the fact that the ground is
still relatively warm.

Valley rain and snow will likely taper off by sunset Monday.
However, model guidance is hinting at a Tonopah Low late Monday
night into Tuesday morning. Historically, these have brought
significant snowfall totals to portions of the Sierra and the
Sierra Front. But as previously mentioned, the models have been
all over the place this weekend. If that low wobbles in any
different direction, the possible scenarios will widely differ.
Right now, combined with snow levels between 5-6 kft Tuesday
morning, there is a non-zero chance for snow along the Sierra
Front Tuesday morning. Just how much is still up in the air; foothill
communities along the Sierra Front, including Virginia City,
could see anywhere from no snow to 2", depending on what
percentile you look at.

-Giralte

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for Sierra Front terminals through at
least Monday morning while Sierra terminals will see MVFR or lower
today due to low CIGS/VIS from this current storm system. Right
now, -SHRA is not expected for Sierra terminals overnight but that
may change if this system is slower to move out of the area.

However, by 17/12Z, KTRK/KTVL can expect -SN, bringing CIGS/VIS
down to IFR/LIFR conditions, especially with the heaviest snow
between 17/13-17/16Z. For KMMH, -SN is expected by 17/15Z. Sierra
Front terminals can expect -SHRA after 17/15Z. CIGS/VIS may drop
to MVFR with the heaviest precip. Mountain obscurations can be
expected for all terminals.

Relatively light surface winds are expected, with gusts up to 20
kts for all terminals ahead of the onset of the aforementioned
precipitation.

-Giralte

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday CAZ072.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ073.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM PST Tuesday
     CAZ073.

&&

$$