883
FXUS65 KREV 160920
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
120 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025


.KEY MESSAGES...

* Wetting rains and mountain snow will persist today with decreasing
  coverage this afternoon.

* A colder storm arrives late tonight into Monday, bringing colder
  temperatures and the potential for more rain, mountain snow, and
  breezy winds.

* Cool and unsettled weather stick around through next week as
  additional storms queue up in the Pacific.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Well, to put it lightly, we are pretty disappointed in how the
system is evolving early this morning. The upper low is centered
across central CA as of 1AM and continues to swing precipitation
bands from south to north across California and Nevada. The heaviest
precipitation remains west of the crest across the CA coastline,
while we wait for our turn here in western NV and the eastern
Sierra. Wetting rains panned out nicely Saturday evening for much of
the region, but we`re still patiently awaiting our mountain snow.
There are some light to moderate showers sweeping into northeastern
CA, but we`re still waiting for the eastward progression of the low
to bring a last bout of showers, and hopefully snow, to the eastern
Sierra. HRRR still shows precipitation filling in across much of the
Eastern Sierra and far western Nevada between 4am-7am this morning.
Snow levels are currently around 9000 feet, but are still projected
to drop to near 7000 feet as the cold core of the low passes over
the region. Peak snow rates should be during that early morning time
frame just after sunrise before we start to clear out by mid to late
afternoon.

Our next storm is still on track to be colder and arriving right
behind the current one. We will get a bit of a reprieve in western
Nevada late this afternoon into Monday morning, with much lighter
precipitation persisting in the Sierra, especially in the Tahoe
Basin. Snow levels are forecast to remain around 6-7k ft with the
peak snowfall between 4-7am for the Sierra passes. Plan on impacts
to the morning commute. Even a mix of rain/snow will result in
delays, slick conditions, and slower driving conditions. Forecaster
confidence is still relatively low with this storm and the low track
will heavily dictate the eventual outcome. Snowfall forecasts from
blended guidance range from near zero inches up to 15 inches for
Donner Pass. The probability of 6 inches of snow are around 40-65%
for NE CA passes: Donner, Echo, Yuba while Eastern Sierra areas:
Mammoth Mountain, Sonora Pass, and Tioga Pass are at 70-85% chances.

The remainder of the week still looks cooler with some potential for
another systems to sweep by on Thursday-Friday.  Even with the
uncertainty in the snow forecast, we are confident that temperatures
are going to be colder Monday onward. Plan on the potential for
widespread below freezing temperatures starting on Monday and
persisting through the rest of the week.

-Edan

&&

.AVIATION...
The upper low is centered off central CA and continues to wrap
precipitation bands from south to north across the California and
Nevada. Primary impacts will be rain and high elevation snow showers
with MVFR flight conditions at times, mountain obscuration, and snow
accumulation at KMMH/KTVL.

Snow levels will lower overnight (~6500 feet), with a switchover to
snow around 16/10Z Sunday for KMMH and 16/14Z for KTVL. For KTRK,
there`s a lower potential for the rain to switchover to snow (30%
chance of snow). Up to 1-2 inches of heavy, wet snow is possible for
KMMH/KTVL through Sunday.

Light surface winds will persist with gusts remaining below 20 kts
through Sunday. FL100 winds shift and increase from the southwest
Sunday morning with gusts to 45 kt the rest of the day. Periods of
mountain wave turbulence may develop with the increasing FL100 wind
speeds late Sunday.

Another potentially more impactful storm approaches late Sunday into
Monday with additional chances for increased winds, colder
temperatures, and more precipitation potential.

-Edan

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday CAZ072.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ073.

&&

$$