Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
991 FXUS65 KREV 182127 CCA AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 125 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Snow showers to linger in Southern Mono Co and the White Mountains through this evening, with dry and cold conditions Wednesday. Fog and freezing fog may form overnight in valley locations. * Another storm will bring rain and snow to the Sierra and western Nevada Thursday, but this is not nearly as wet as the multi- day storm we just had. * Looking ahead to the week of Thanksgiving, the weather for traveling looks good the early part of the week. Simulations are pointing toward a colder storm the weekend following the holiday, details TBD. && .DISCUSSION... * After a multi-day period of wetting rains, and liquid totals that have pushed KRNO to the 11th wettest start of the water year (10/1/25-11/17/25), we`re going to start to dry out, but this will be a short-lived reprieve. Plentiful low-level moisture and partially clearing skies, along with cold overnight lows, will help fog and freezing fog to develop in valleys across the Sierra and Western Nevada. Places like the Martis Valley and Carson Valley have a solid 90% chance, while other valley locations have a 60% chance overnight from approximately 10 pm through 8 am. We have already solidified the latest "first freeze", aka 32 degrees or colder for KRNO, with the previous record 11/16/16. Tonight, we may finally reach that mark with a forecast low of 31, but if we have enough fog/low stratus develop, it could keep things a few degrees warmer. * The next winter system arrives Thursday, with snow levels hovering in the 5.5-6.5kft range. This means that the weather type will be snow for all Sierra passes, but totals do not look overly problematic. The mid-range snow totals in the Sierra are 2-5 inches, with the high-end (1 in 10 chance) scenario reaching 8-12" of snow along the crest. Be prepared for chain controls and travel delays if you are traversing the Sierra on Thursday. Liquid totals are not nearly as impressive with this storm as the couple we just had, with 0.3-0.8" for the Sierra, and lesser amounts of a few hundredths up to a couple tenths of an inch into northeast CA and western NV. * NE-E winds will develop on the back side of this system Friday, with gusty conditions along the Sierra crest into Saturday morning. The weekend is generally quiet with near to below normal temperatures that will gradually warm into Monday. There`s a 10% chance for a weak system to brush north of the region the early part of next week, which would produce light showers closer to the Oregon border and bring cooling into Tuesday. * Looking ahead to one of the busiest travel period of the year -- the weather for Thanksgiving is looking quiet, but we are seeing a large number of ensembles (80+%) indicating a colder trough for the weekend following the holiday, with rain and snow chances. With this storm being 10-12 days out, it`s still TBD on many details, but just something to be aware of if you do have travel plans. -Dawn && .AVIATION... * While lower clouds are slowly eroding on satellite, observations around the region are still showing plentiful clouds obscuring terrain. Additional fog and/or low stratus has a moderate-high chance of forming overnight. Terminals most likely to be affected include KTRK and KMEV (90% chance), but patchy fog/freezing fog has a 60% chance of forming at any other valley terminal. Time frame to watch out for fog development will be approximately 03z- 15z. * Otherwise, improved flying conditions into Wednesday, before our next storm brings an uptick in SW winds (~25-40 kts at FL100) and chances for rain and snow Thursday. NE-E winds will develop on the back side of this system Friday into Saturday morning, with mountain wave turbulence possible west of the Sierra crest. -Dawn && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ073. && $$