395
FXUS65 KREV 302142
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
142 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mainly dry conditions will prevail through the upcoming week,
  with the coolest days expected Wednesday and Thursday.

* A weak weather system will bring periods of breezy winds Tuesday
  and Wednesday, but shower chances have decreased.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Behind this morning`s dry cold front passage (with patchy virga
observed), winds have shifted to the north and northeast. While
these surface winds will decrease this evening, Sierra ridge
winds will increase from the NE-E with gusts to 40 mph overnight
into Monday morning.

Prevailing high pressure off the west coast will effectively
block any moisture-laden Pacific storms from reaching the Sierra
or western NV this week. Valley inversions and light winds return
Monday with highs in the mid 40s-near 50 for lower elevations and
Sierra communities.

For Tuesday-Tuesday night, another weak upper low drops in from
the Pacific NW to the Great Basin. Much like today`s inland
trajectory system, the latest ensembles and first look at some of
the higher resolution guidance is trending toward a drier
scenario, with a back door cold front passage across western NV.
While a few flurries or light snow showers can`t be ruled out
Tuesday night along the front in far northwest NV, or in the
eastern Sierra with a short period of upslope flow behind the
front, the potential for accumulating snowfall is on the decline.
Blended guidance now shows less than 10% chance for at least 1"
of snow in the eastern Sierra. Winds will be the primary effect
with this event as W-NW breezes return Tuesday afternoon, with
stronger ridge top gusts up to 50 mph.

After the cold front clears the region Wednesday morning, we`ll
see a period of stronger NE-E ridge top winds with potential for
gusts of 50-70 mph, and increased risk of choppy conditions for
western Tahoe shores. Otherwise, we`ll see the chilliest weather
of the week highs only in the upper 30s-mid 40s Wednesday and
mainly 40s for Thursday. Wednesday night will likely be the
coldest so far this season for most areas as lows plunge into the
teens-lower 20s.

For the remainder of the week, the high pressure ridge appears to
favor a drift to the south which may open up the Pacific storm
track into the northwest US from Friday into next weekend.
Currently we`re only anticipating low-end shower chances near the
OR border, although medium range guidance begins to diverge with
about 20-30% of the ensemble clusters pushing the southern edge of
the storm track closer to the Sierra by late next weekend, but
the remainder of the scenarios stay on the drier side. Otherwise,
we should see less inversion strength from Friday onward, allowing
temperatures to rebound into the 50s for most areas. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail through the next few days. FZFG probability
is less than 20% at KTRK late tonight/early AM Monday as an east
flow over the Sierra lingers, which reduces the fog potential.

Valley inversions increase Monday with light urban haze producing
minor reductions in slantwise visibility mainly in/out of KRNO.

Lingering N-NE winds with gusts near 15 kt this afternoon, except
stronger WNW gusts near 25 kt at KMMH will diminish by early this
evening, with light winds prevailing through Tuesday morning. The
next increase in W-NW winds and associated mountain wave
turbulence returns by Tuesday afternoon, followed by a shift to
NE-E winds late Tuesday night-Wednesday. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$