713
FXUS65 KREV 040934
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
134 AM PST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Strong winds arrive late tonight and Wednesday, especially from
  the eastern Sierra into far western NV with significant travel
  impacts.

* Periods of wetting rain and high elevation snow will move across
  eastern CA Wednesday, with lighter rain into far western NV.

* From Thursday through early next week, overall drier and warmer
  conditions prevail, although a few showers may linger at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today will continue the process of displacing the recent upper
level ridge away from CA/NV, with a weak upper disturbance
bringing light rain showers to areas north of Susanville-Gerlach
today and a few more degrees of cooling especially north of I-80.
Winds won`t be very significant through this afternoon, with
gusts generally in the 20-30 mph range.

The main storm starts to make its presence known tonight and
Wednesday, with winds ramping up this evening and reaching peak
speeds in many areas for the overnight hours and through Wednesday
morning. This timing coincides with the strongest 700 mb flow of
60-70 kt, along with downslope signatures just east of the Sierra
crest into far western NV and Mono County especially along the
US-395/I-580 corridor. The Tahoe Basin is also at risk for these
stronger wind gusts, with mountain wave activity and a critical
stable layer above ridge top level that can assist in driving
these stronger gusts down into lower elevations. With increased
confidence for this significant wind event, we have upgraded the
watches to a High Wind Warning including Tahoe southward to Mono
County, and far western NV including the main Reno-Carson-Minden
urban areas. For northeast CA and the remainder of western NV,
less downslope enhancement is expected but winds will be
significant enough for Wind Advisories, including areas of blowing
dust downwind of deserts and sinks. While the majority of the
high wind potential appears to favor Wednesday morning, we`ll
continue to see bursts of impactful wind gusts through Wednesday
afternoon-evening. Also of note, southern Mono County east of
US-395 still shows drier vegetation along with minimum humidity
dropping to 15-20% Wednesday afternoon, so these winds could
produce elevated fire weather concerns. For more details on
wind/gust speeds, see our latest High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory
statement at weather.gov/reno.

Rain and high elevation snow are also part of this storm, with the
majority of the substantial rainfall favoring northeast CA west of
US-395 and the Tahoe Basin/Alpine County, where liquid amounts of
0.50-1.25 inches are forecast. Localized heavier totals up to 2
inches are within reach near the Sierra crest west of Tahoe.
Heading eastward, the precip totals drop off to 0.25-0.50 inch for
northeast CA east of US-395, Surprise Valley and far northwest
NV, and foothill locations west of Reno-Carson City. For the main
urban areas, rainfall totals look to range from 0.05-0.20 inch,
with minimal amounts across west central NV and southeast Mono
County. Snow levels remain quite high above 7500-8000 ft. This
will limit snow to higher passes and summits (Mt. Rose, Carson,
Ebbetts, Sonora, Tioga) with accumulations generally 1-3 inches,
and locally up to 6 inches near the crest.

Conditions will improve Wednesday night into Thursday with winds
decreasing and precip winding down. However, light rain/snow
showers could linger for the northern Sierra and northeast CA
into northwest NV at times through Friday as weaker disturbances
brush across the northwest US. A period of increased Sierra ridge
top wind gusts (up to 70 mph) is also currently projected for
late Thursday night-Friday morning, although these winds are less
likely to mix down to lower elevations. Otherwise, after a mid-
week cooldown during and after the storm, temperatures will edge
upward for the weekend with highs mainly in the 60s, while a few
warmer valleys return to 70 degrees by Sunday. While isolated rain
showers can`t be ruled out early next week for parts of northeast
CA/northwest NV, the majority of the medium range ensemble
guidance is favoring a drier pattern Saturday through early next
week. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

Southwest winds will return to the main terminals by late this
morning and continue this afternoon-evening with surface gusts
20-25 kt, while FL100 winds continue with gusts up to 50 kt. This
will continue mountain wave turbulence throughout today with
periods of LLWS returning between 17-19Z for most terminals,
except later this afternoon at KMMH. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail through this evening.

More widespread wind impacts including significant mountain wave
activity/turbulence and longer periods of LLWS are likely from
late this evening through Wednesday with potential for strong
wind gusts of 40-50 kt at the main terminals and FL100 wind gusts
of 80+ kt. The greatest overall wind impacts for takeoff/landing
are anticipated between 10-17Z Wednesday morning for most main
terminals including KRNO, except between 15-23Z Wednesday at
KMMH. Rain chances also increase during the day Wednesday with
MVFR to brief IFR CIGS/VIS most likely for KTVL/KTRK, and terrain
obscurations at all main terminals. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday NVZ005.

     High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday NVZ002-003.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday NVZ001-004.

CA...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday CAZ070-071.

     High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday CAZ072-073.

&&

$$