197
FXUS65 KREV 102101
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
101 PM PST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry weather with light winds and unseasonably warm temperatures
  continue through the weekend.

* Hazy skies and minor reductions in air quality possible each
  morning across lower urban valleys.

* A pattern change early next week may bring increased winds and
  low chances for precipitation, but confidence remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The weather pattern remains dominated by a persistent upper level
ridge across the southwestern US, leading to continued dry, mild,
and quiet conditions. Thursday will feature unseasonably warm
temperatures, with many locations approaching or exceeding daily
record highs. For instance, Reno (KRNO) reaches the mid-50s to
low-60s tomorrow, Thursday. Similarly, South Lake Tahoe (KTVL)
reaches to around 60F on Thursday. Mammoth Lakes (KMMH) will see
highs in the upper-50s to low-60s. These temperatures are well
above average for mid-December. Light winds will prevail across
the area, with some localized light southwest breezes possible in
the Sierra Front Thursday. Similar conditions persist into the
weekend, but with slightly cooler temperatures as the ridge slowly
weakens.

The strong morning inversions will continue to foster hazy conditions
and minor reductions in air quality, especially in urban valleys,
each morning. Patchy FZFG is also expected to redevelop near Truckee
during the overnight and early morning hours.

A pattern change is signaled for early next week as the ridge continues
to weaken and flatten, allowing a series of Pacific shortwaves to
impact northern NV. The first system is expected around Monday
night into Tuesday. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest
increased precipitation chances, though amounts are generally
expected to be light. NBM guidance for precipitation on Tuesday
ranges from 10-40% across the Eastern Sierra and Tahoe Basin,
decreasing to 5-25% across far Western Nevada. Precip chances
decrease on Wednesday by 10% or so.

Snow levels remain quite high, generally in the 7-9 kft range
meaning that only the highest peaks will see light snow
accumulations. Winds are also expected to increase, becoming
breezy across the region, particularly in mountain ridges by early
next week. Despite the signals for a pattern shift, confidence in
the exact timing and magnitude of precipitation remains low, as
highlighted in the previous discussion, and by the notable spread
among the ensemble and deterministic models.

-HC

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions persist through Thursday afternoon. The only
concern are slantwise VIS reductions due to hazy conditions,
especially in the morning and early afternoon in western NV
terminals. KTRK may experience FZFG between 08-15Z, but the
chances are less than 20%.

-HC

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$