253
FXUS65 KREV 020852
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
152 AM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures remain below average through the upcoming week,
  with Friday seeing the lowest temperatures.

* The best chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive today through
  Friday as low pressure drops into the region.

* Drier and cool conditions prevail this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* For today, light to moderate, at times locally heavy, showers
  are likely with a chance of embedded thunderstorms. These
  showers will be focused along a slow, southward progressing cold
  front for most of today into early Friday morning. For the
  eastern Sierra, the HREF has light showers this morning, mainly
  from Alpine County northward into Lassen County. Also depicted
  in the HREF/CAMs is a heavier band of showers setting up around
  the Lake Tahoe area into eastern Plumas County from around 4-6
  AM through around 2-4 PM. Precipitation does not reach into Mono
  County until around 4-6 PM today and will continue through
  around 4-6 AM on Friday. For western NV, the HREF/CAMs show some
  light spillover showers this morning along the Sierra
  Front/Reno Metro area, as well as areas north of I-80.
  Precipitation is then likely in the Reno metro area and Sierra
  Front from around 1 PM to around 9 PM. Showers will continue
  into the inner basin and ranges through 4-6 AM Friday.

* Although we have good upper level support for rain,
  thunderstorms are less of a threat given the meager instability.
  But some could produce gusts to 40 mph, lightning, and small
  hail. With the heavier bands of precipitation expected along the
  advancing cold front, any areas that see training storms may
  see localized areal flooding, with particular concern for the
  local burn scars or poorly drained areas. For precipitation
  amounts into Friday morning, blended NBM guidance shows a 50-70%
  chance for at least 0.50" of precipitation from Alpine County
  north into Plumas County, including lake level in Tahoe. There
  is a 50-60% chance for at least 0.25" of rainfall for the Sierra
  Front, Reno metro area, and into the inner basin mainly along
  I-80. But It is worth noting that the HREF/CAMs have locally
  heavier amounts of 1-2" in the Tahoe Basin and 0.5-1.25" of
  precipitation along the cold front in western NV.

* For Friday, there is a break in the precipitation in the early
  morning. But as the upper low moves through the region,
  scattered hit/miss showers will be likely throughout the eastern
  Sierra and western NV. Temperatures will also fall to low 60s
  for much of western NV, with temperatures near 50 for most
  Sierra communities, But, the higher elevations throughout the
  Sierra will struggle to reach freezing. With the mention of cold
  temperatures, we didn`t forget the snow. Snow levels start this
  morning around 11,000 feet, with the primary precipitation type
  being rain. Snow levels by the evening will drop to around
  9,500-10,000 feet in the Tahoe area, to around 11,000 feet in
  Mono County. By Friday morning, snow levels drop to 7,500-8,500
  feet throughout the eastern Sierra. It`s not a big snow event by
  any means, but the first decent snowfall this fall. Two-day
  NBM/HREF totals have a majority of the Sierra between a Trace to
  1", with localized amounts of up to 2-4" in Mono County (Tioga
  Pass, Sonora Pass), and 1-2" for Mount Rose.

* There is another upper level low system affecting the region
  Monday into Tuesday. However, there is uncertainty about how
  deep this next trough will be and how much precipitation it will
  bring to the area. -McKellar

&&

.AVIATION...

* Generally VFR conditions continue through the late morning. The
  exceptions will be for KTRK/KTVL as SHRA and -TSRA may reduce
  CIGS and VIS to MVFR or IFR with the strongest activity.

* Light to moderate rainfall with MVFR to local IFR for western NV
  terminals are likely after 18-20z to around 10-12z Friday. Low
  level cloud decks leading to mountain obscurations in the Sierra
  continue through Friday. Additional chances for showers
  continue areawide into Friday evening.

* Winds are overall light for all terminals today, with sustained
  winds around 10 kts and gusts to 20 kts. -McKellar

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$