095
FXUS65 KREV 172018
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
118 PM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Gusty north winds will maintain choppy lake conditions and
  localized critical fire weather conditions for Mono County and
  portions of western Nevada through the afternoon.

* Frost and freeze potential mainly for Sierra valleys tonight
  into Tuesday morning. Coldest rural Nevada valleys could
  approach freezing.

* Temperatures return to season averages midweek before heating to
  the mid 90s to near 100 in lower elevations this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Breezy north winds are still ongoing across Mono and Mineral County,
but have been trending weaker as of late so the concern of lake
recreation/fire impacts are lowering in response. Meanwhile,
unseasonably cool weather is underway with temperatures in the 50s
and 60s. A chilly night is in store tonight as lows will fall below
freezing for Sierra and colder western Nevada valleys and mid-30s to
40s for all other areas.

A considerable warming trend will begin Tuesday and continue into
the weekend, allowing temperatures to meet and surpass seasonal
averages in time for the weekend. Daytime highs will reach the 80s
and 90s for the end of the week before reaching its apex this
weekend when lower western Nevada valleys may see triple digit highs.
As a result, a moderate heat risk will likely exist across much of
western Nevada Friday through Sunday so be sure to take your heat
safety precautions!

While the remainder of the week and weekend are heavily favored to
be dry, the one day that presents the "best" chance of afternoon
convection is Thursday for the Sierra south of the Tahoe Basin where
forecast soundings reflect meager instability. Still, blended
guidance limits odds to 10% of showers and storms for this area.

Ensembles advertise a quasi-zonal synoptic regime early next week,
which would maintain above normal temperatures but preclude higher
chances of afternoon convection and perhaps allow for periods of
breezy winds next week.

-Salas

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue today and tomorrow. Main concern this
afternoon will be gusty north winds with terminals gusting 25-30
kts. Terminals out east such as KLOL/KNFL/KHTH will see sustained
winds of 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts. Isolated BLDU may also
be possible this afternoon. Winds will taper off tonight after 6Z
and become light overnight.

-Justin

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ001.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 1 PM PDT this afternoon NVZ004.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ073.

&&

$$