318
FXUS65 KRIW 291723
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1023 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow ending and wind decreasing today for a dry but cold day.

- The next system brings light snow to southern and
  southwestern Wyoming Sunday into Sunday evening.

- An active pattern for next week with a couple of chances of
  light snow for portions of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

Winter has finally arrived and punched many locations in the mouth
Friday night. It was rather nasty when I arrived for my shift;
snow with wind gusts close to 50 mph. As I write this before 2
am, snow is still ongoing across portions of the area, mainly
the eastern portions. We should see the worst of this through
around 3 am, with improving conditions following that as the
front continues to move south away from the area. All snow
should be over by sunrise, if not before. As for wind, it
continues to be quite strong, especially in the northwest flow
locations. Buffalo and Greybull are continuing to have gusts to
around 50 mph, although they are decreasing elsewhere. We may
be able to cancel the Advisories somewhat early, if the wind
decreases a bit earlier than expected.

The main story today will be the cold temperatures, the coldest so
far this season. This will especially be the case in areas that saw
some accumulating snow, adding the assist from the fresh snow
increasing the albedo and the weak late November sun having a
limited effect. Most locations will stay in the 20s and some
areas in the teens. Tonight will be the coldest night of the
season for many, especially east of the Divide where most areas
have at least a 1 in 2 chance of lows falling into the single
digits. Increasing high clouds late tonight should keep most
locations above zero though.

The aforementioned clouds will be coming from the next wave that
will largely impact southern and southwestern Wyoming, as it
drops in from Idaho. This wave is also a fast mover and has
even less moisture to work with than last nights wave, and the
best dynamics remain to the south and west of Wyoming.
Probabilistic guidance shows even less snow than yesterday. The
only location with a greater than 1 in 2 chance of 2 inches or
more are the Salt and Wyoming Ranges, with only a 1 in 4 chance
of 4 inches. The lower elevations from Afton through Rock
Springs have around 1 in 3 chance of an inch or so of snow. As
for east of the Divide, a few showers may jump the Divide, but
any amounts should minuscule. All snow from this system should
end by midnight Sunday night.

Transitory ridging should bring a dry and somewhat warmer day for
Monday. The next system then drops in on our fast moving northwest
flow for Monday night and Tuesday. There continues to be some model
disagreement on the details of the system, but there is greater than
a 1 in 2 chance of some locations getting some snow from this
system, although probabilistic guidance also shows there is less
than a 1 in 4 chance anywhere in the lower elevations of 3
inches or more, so right now it is not looking like a major
storm. Another wave may approach for the end of the week, but
details are impossible to determine this far out. Temperatures
look to moderate to near normal to slightly below normal
through much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1018 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

The last of the low clouds from overnight snow has eroded in the
past hour, with only high cirrus drifting overhead across the
state. This cirrus will continue to increase as the next weather
system sweeps in overnight tonight. Cloud cover will increase
and lower through the night for sites west of the Divide,
reaching low MVFR/IFR levels by tomorrow morning. Have not yet
added precip to these sites, as this may not occur until 18Z/30.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC
for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hattings
AVIATION...Straub