290
FXUS65 KRIW 211949
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1249 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog and low clouds will continue to plague southwest Wyoming
  tonight into Saturday morning, mainly from Star Valley south
  along western Lincoln County.

- Temperatures will remain around 5 to 10 degrees warmer than
  normal through this weekend.

- A strong cold front will push through Monday into Tuesday with
  increasing precipitation chances for northern Wyoming. Lows
  will drop into the teens Monday and Tuesday night.

- A much more active weather pattern will set up next week, but
  weather impacts should remain minimal for Wyoming until next
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1248 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

Fog and low clouds persist across western Lincoln County this
afternoon, which should slowly dissipate this afternoon. Fog and low
clouds will develop in the same area again tonight. For now held off
on a Dense Fog Advisory for Lincoln County, but it likely (70%) will
be needed tonight. Chance for precipitation across southern portions
of the area have substantially decreased today, so dry conditions
will continue. The warmer than normal temperatures continue through
this weekend, with the timing of a strong cold front Monday into
Monday night remaining on track. For this upcoming Holiday week the
weather pattern still looks like it will become much more active,
but not expecting any major weather systems to bring widespread
impacts to the area until the weekend after Thanksgiving. That
weather system is the one to watch as there is potential for it to
cause at least moderate winter impacts for our area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

Areas of fog return to portions of the state this morning. Fog
has already begun to develop across parts of Natrona, Johnson,
Sweetwater and Lincoln Counties as of early this morning. Other
locations in Sublette and Fremont counties may see fog develop
through the rest of the morning with chances around 10-30%. As a
result of the fog, visibilities may drop below one mile at
times, which may create difficult driving conditions. Areas of
fog should begin to dissipate by the late morning with clearing
expected by the early afternoon. Besides fog this morning, a
few isolated showers will be possible today with the best
chances (10-20%) being across far southern WY. Precipitation
chances and coverage has decreased due to the disturbance moving
south of the state becoming more disorganized than originally
thought. Overall, most locations look to remain dry with skies
expected to gradually clear out through the day.

Ridging looks to build in over the region for the weekend. This will
keep a newly developed cutoff low currently over the Desert
Southwest far to the south of the state. As a result, dry and
mostly quiet conditions prevail across the Cowboy State through
the weekend. Near to slightly above seasonable temperatures
persist across the state today and through the weekend. Highs
will range in the low to mid 40s west of the Divide and low to
mid 50s east of the Divide. Winds remain light over the next
couple of days with periodic breezes possible in wind prone
locations.

Active weather is looking more likely to return for the start of
next week. The setup looks to be a potent Pacific disturbance that
moves onshore across the PACNW late Sunday. This disturbance then
begins to pull cold air down south from Canada as it continues
to track east. The timing of this currently is expected to
occur during the day Monday into Tuesday. The best chances for
precipitation would be across western and far northern WY as a
result of post frontal orographics. A few showers may be
possible along the front as it moves across the state but
chances look limited due to a lack of available moisture.
Snowfall amounts look minimal, with a quick inch or two possible
in the mountains and a light coating for lower elevations.
Winds are forecast to increase Monday as well with gusty
conditions possible, especially in wind prone locations. As a
result of this system, temperatures drop quickly Monday as the
front moves through. Models are indicating some of the coldest
temperatures so far this season for Tuesday and Wednesday. The
exact degree of the cold still remains uncertain at this time,
but a better idea of what to expect should come into better view
by the weekend. The second half of the week, including
Thanksgiving, at this time looks active mainly for western and
northwestern WY. Another disturbance moves into the region
possibly leading to snow chances for western mountains and
valleys. However, there still remains high uncertainty regarding
impacts as the timing and track of this disturbance can easily
shift over the next few days. Overall, it will be worth
monitoring especially if planning to travel over any western
mountain passes for Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1000 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

VFR conditions through the period. A few lingering low clouds around
KRKS should clear within the first couple hours of the period.
Otherwise, a mostly clear sky through the period, with some passing
high clouds (cirrus) at times. There is little to no indication in
fog development tonight.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rowe
DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski
AVIATION...Wittmann