050
FXUS65 KRIW 091736
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1036 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate snowfall will continue across the NW higher
  elevations today and through Thursday. Total snow accumulation
  through Thursday will reach 2 to 3 feet. Warmer valley
  temperatures will inhibit most snowfall accumulations.

- Very windy across much of the state today, with High Wind
  Warnings in effect for much of southern and central Wyoming.

- Temperatures remain 10 to 20 degrees above normal

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

The next passing shortwave energy is beginning to impact the NW
higher elevations this morning, and the overall flow the next
several days continues to be favorable for continued snow
accumulation. Between orographic lifting and the passing wave,
accumulations of 2 to 3 feet are becoming more likely for the
Tetons and Absarokas, with 6 to 12 inches for remaining higher
mountain ranges and the greater YNP region. Current variety of
winter warnings and advisories are well positioned, so no
adjustments needed at this time. In a usual winter, temperatures
would be cold enough to help get some of this precip into the
lower valleys, but not this year. Temperatures today will be in
the 40s for the western valleys, and in the low 50s for the
lower elevations east of the Divide, so snowfall will be locked
into the mountains for the remainder of the week.

The core of the llvl jet streak will be passing by just to the
north today, and with temperatures in the 50s, a large chunk of
this wind energy will mix to the sfc during the afternoon. With
H7 winds at 70kts as they pass by, peak sfc wind gusts of 50 to
60 mph are likely for southern WY stretching NE into the Casper
vicinity. The only question is winds across northern Johnson
County late this afternoon as the cold front barrels through.
While winds sfc and aloft are aligned, models are not really
bringing winds up until the system gets a little farther east.
Will monitor this if High Wind Warnings are needed there.

Beyond this, the H5 ridge along the Rockies doesn`t move much
through the weekend, deflecting weather systems to the north and
east, and keeping the unusually warm temperatures in place.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1034 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

VFR conditions across nearly all terminals through the period with
the one exception being KJAC where a weather system will bring
periods of rain/snow. Rain/snow showers will periodically move
through KJAC for the start of the period. MVFR to possibly IFR
conditions may be possible at times especially with any heavier
showers. Precipitation will be possible at KJAC through the
overnight with temperatures likely at or slightly above freezing
leading to a mix of rain/snow or all rain. Showers should gradually
dissipate by the late morning hours on Wednesday. The other
terminals that may see an isolated brief shower or two are KCOD,
KPNA, KCPR, and KWRL. Most of these terminals have low chances, less
than 30% for a shower with possibly better chances at KCOD Wednesday
morning. The other main concern will be strong gusty winds of 35 to
45 knots at KCOD, KCPR, and KRKS. These winds are expected to
persist for another 2 or 3 hours after the start of the period
before weakening. Winds will return to these terminals once again
Wednesday morning with 30 to 40 knots possible through the end of
the period. All other terminals are not forecast to see as strong of
winds but gusty conditions will still be possible at times.
Widespread gusts of 25 to 35 knots are possible at or shortly
after the start of the period with these winds weakening after
sunset with breezy conditions lingering. Mountain obscuration
will likely persist through all of the TAF period with some
improvement possible near the end of the period.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC
for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ001-002-
012.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ008-
014-015-024.

High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ016.

High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Thursday for WYZ019-020-022-
027>030.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Straub
AVIATION...Dziewaltowski